Tuesday, 19 February 2008
Little thing
Advised bet:
10 Pnt Lay - LITTLE WING @1,98
Throwing caution to the wind with this final lay. 10.70 points in profit on the day so far. Will either be a good day or a tiny profit whatever happens.
Bets
Advised bet:
5 Point Lay - EMERALD WITNESS @ 2.76
4:40 Southwell
Advised bet:
5 point win - SILVER HOTSPUR @ 2.5
Next bet at 5pm
Phone this
Advised bet:
5 Point Win - PHONE IN @ 6.4 (lay stake back at 3.4 in running)
Monday, 18 February 2008
Dutched bet
Advised bet:
4 Point Win - MISTER CELLOPHANE @ 4.7
2 Point Win - WADNAGIN @ 17.0
Dubai Delights
Advised bet:
4 Point Place - ATHEER DUBAI @ 2.0
1 Point Win - ATHEER DUBAI @ 8.0
Hot Deserts
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - ARCTIC DESERT @5.0
3 Point Win - NORTHERN DESERT @5.3
Harry Pothead
Advised bet:
5 Point Place lay - WIZARD LOOKING @ 1.86
I need to update the figures from Saturday and Sunday and will do that this evening. All bets today 10mins before the race start time.
Sunday, 17 February 2008
Dutched bet
Advised bet:
3 Point win - GLOBAL TRAFFIC @4.9
3 Point Win - MID VALLEY @7.4
Dutched bet
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - TINAS RIDGE @ 5.5
3 Points Win - ZABEEL HOUSE @ 10.5
Dutched bet
Advised bet:
1 Point Win - WALRAGNEK @ 27.0
1 Point Win - DANIEL O DONNEL @ 21.0
Al further bets 15 min before each southwell race.
Dutched bet
Advised bet:
3 Point win - NOVESTAR @ 7.2
3 Point win - CHERISHED SONG @ 6.4
Next bet after the race
Albanov
Advised bet:
1 Point win - ALBANOV @ 8.0
2 Point Place -ALBANOV @ 2.36
Next bet after race.
Saturday, 16 February 2008
Egyptian good lord
Advised bet:
3 Point Place LAY - EGYPTIAN LORD @ 2.34
next bet straight after the race.
Max Bet
5 Point Win - AMARETTO ROSE @ 5.1
5 Point Win - BLYTHE KNIGHT @ 4.7
Final bet at 4pm
bets
Advised bet:
1 Point win - SERGEANT SCHULTZ @6.0
1 Point win - BAYLINI @ 12.5
3:35 Ascot
Advised bet
5 Point Win - DOUBLY GUEST @ 2.0
Next bet posted at 3:35pm exactly
Rubbish song - Kicking Prince
Advised bet:
5 Point Lay - SONG OF SONGS @ 1.95
2:00 Gowran
5 Point Lay - KICKING KING @ 2.04
Next bet after the race
Witchita yes man - Air |Force Won
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - WICHITA LINESMAN @ 3.3
1:15 Ascot
3 Point Win - AIR FORCE ONE @ 3.15
Next bet after the race
Harry Hasty
Advised bet:
2 Point Win - HARRY TRICKER @ 5.0
2 Point Win - MAKE HASTE @ 6.4
next bet after the race
Friday, 15 February 2008
Punting Patto's Saturday Selections
Its that time of the week again when we get to watch the latest episode of 'Punting Patto's Saturday Selections'. The legendary horse judge from down under delivers his inspired selections as well as performing a song that could have been composed in racing heaven itself. Mindblowing stuff from everyones favourite Australian.
Dutched bet
Advised bet:
2 Point Win - MINERAL RIGHTS @ 11.0
1 Point Win - GIMME SOME LOVIN @ 21.0
This is the only evening bet. Its a nasty looking card and I am prepared to risk 3 points of todays profit on this bet. Its a tough race but there is a decent chance we can get a great return from this bet, if it loses then it has still been a good day.
RESULT:
We just missed out on the jackpot as Gimme Some Lovin could only manage 2nd place. A loss of 3 points.
Capitalast
Advised bet:
5 Point Place Lay - CAPITALISE @ 1.75
RESULT:
A loss of 3.75 points on the bet as Capitalise won. 15.03 points profit on the afternoon hopefully will be topped up this evening.
Evening bet posted at 6:15pm
No passing
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - LE PASSING @ 2.46 (Lay stake back in running at 1.46)
RESULT:
Le Passing touched 1.22 in running so we lost nothing and won nothing. I was delighted just to get my stake back on the race as Le Passing looked to have no hope whatsoever mid race before a great ride by Tom Greenall to put him bang there at the end.
Dutched bet.
Advised bet:
2 Point Win - WESTPORT @ 3.9
2 Point Win - CHJIMES @ 11.5
RESULT:
A loss of 4 points, Chjimes was an unlucky horse and had his run blocked at a crucial time. I dont worry or make excuses about things like that as I am fully aware that luck will balance itself out over a period of time.
Not crapidity
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - RAPIDITY @ 4.4 (Lay stake in running at 2.4)
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,255188,00.html
6 points won as Rapidity bolts up.
Punch the clowns
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - PUNCHESTOWNS @ 2.44 (Lay stake back at 1.44 in running)
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,255207,00.html
3 points won as Punchestowns won a shade cosily.
Round the bend
Advised bet:
3 Point Place Lay - ROUNDTHETWIST @ 2.44
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,255187,00.html
3 points won as Roundthetwist was unplaced.
Le puke
Advised bet:
5 Point Lay - LE DUC @ 1.6
2 Point Win - MILORD LESCRIBA @ 6.0
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,255206,00.html
A loss of 5 points as Le Duc was handed the race by a faller (may well have won anyway), and Milord Lescriba could only manage 2nd.
Bobby Dazzler
Advised bet:
5 Point Lay - BOY ON A SWING @ 1.59
1 Point Win - MIGHT BE MAGIC @ 9.2
1 Point Win - ROWAN RIO @ 15.0
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,255185,00.html
18 Points profit as Boys On A Swing was defeated, Rowan Rio won the race and Might be Magic was a close 2nd.
Dutched
Advised bet:
4 Point Win - SQUADRON @ 3.0
2 Point Win - SONNING STAR @ 4.6
Next bet at 2:10pm
Cayman Calypsoed
Advised bet:
3 Point Place Lay - CAYMAN CALYPSO @ 2.28
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,255198,00.html
3 points won as Cayman Calypso was unplaced.
Musan - GO GO GO
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - MUSANGO @ 2.88 (Lay stake back in running at 1.88)
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,255433,00.html
A loss of 3 points as Musango could only get 3rd and only hit a low of 2.02 in running.
Todays bet
Advised bet:
3 Point place back - THISTLECRAFT @ 2.26
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,255197,00.html
Thistlecraft was 2nd and its a profit of 3.78 points on the bet.
Thursday, 14 February 2008
I dont hear a symphony - Dot Cottons bad night
Advised bet:
3 Point Lay - I HEAR A SYMPHONY @ 2.6
RESULT:
3 Points won as I hear A Symphony was beaten.
2:40 Southwell -
Advised bet:
3 Point Lay - DOTS DELIGHT @ 2.74
RESULT:
A loss of 5.28 points as Dot was delighted.
Wednesday, 13 February 2008
Wee Charlie Bedsit
Advised bet:
5 Point Place Lay - WEE CHARLIE CASTLE @ 1.56
RESULT:
A loss of 2.8 points on the bet as Wee Charlie Castle placed.
A good day all round though with a profit of around 14 points. The blog has a stalker which is why I disabled the comments as I cant be bothered to read it all and have my confidence effected by some sad old man who is bitter that he cant land a job in racing so is forced to constantly mock Racing Post tipsters, Betting.Betfair website tipsters, anyone who tips on forums and his latest victim me. The only problem for him is The Brigadier is nobodys victim.
After all the abuse I was getting from this sad case I was thinking about just packing the blog in as I can do with out the hassle. Then I woke up and decided to take care of things instead and show the sad stalking wannabee exactly how we do things. The looney tune has inspired me, roughly 14 points profit on the day, expect more of the same tomorrow and sit back and watch me turn the month of February into a great winning month.
I will dedicate the success of February (and it will be a successful month) to the sad stalking weirdo. Adios and see you tomorrow.
Smokey nowhere
Advised bet:
3 Point Place Lay - SMOKEY THE BEAR @ 2.3
RESULT:
A loss of 3.9 points as Smokey The Bear wins and ends the dream of going through the evening card.
Red Rubbish
Advised bet:
3 Point Place Lay - RED RUDY @ 2.3
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,254989,00.html
3 Points profit as Red Ruby is unplaced.
Yes Power
Advised bet:
4 Point Win - ASIAN POWER @ 3.25
2 Point Win - AFFIRMITIVELY @ 6.6
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,254988,00.html
This time when I pushed the button the result went our way and its a profit of 7 points as Asian Power wins.
Fire (Nap)
Advised bet:
1/2 point Win - UNDER FIRE @ 5.0
1/2 point Win - NAPOLEATANO @ 13.0
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,254987,00.html
A profit of 1 1/2 points as Under Fire made all and didnt get caught.
Next bet at 7:35pm
Thank the lord
Advised bet:
3 Point Lay - DANETIME LORD @ 2.12
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,254986,00.html
3 points gained as Danetime Lord is defeated.
Next bet at 7:05pm
Evening bet
Advised bet:
5 Point Place Lay - MARAAGEL @ 1.66
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,254985,00.html
5 points profit as Maraagel was a never dangerous 5th.
Lowland Harvest
Advised bet:
3 Point Lay - HIGHLAND HARVEST @ 2.64
RESULT:
A bad result and a loss of 4.92 points on the bet. Highland Harvest traded at 22.0 in running but still managed to win.
3:50 race write up (advised bet below)
3:50 Musselburgh
HALLA SAN – Won a novice hurdle last time over course and distance on good to soft ground. Is taking on battle hardened handicappers for the first time today. Has an official rating of 108. Fahey stable have had just 1 winner from 29 NH runners since 1st of November. Stable have had 5 runners in the last two weeks, 4 of them were unplaced and they had an 11/8 fav beaten in 2nd. Jockey Padge Whelan has a 6 % strike rate on Faheys hurdlers. Graham Lee rode Halla San for the victory last time.
Horse has a tendency to make mistakes at his hurdles and isn’t fluent. He does have an entry in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham but he looks to be priced very short for a horse on a handicap debut that isn’t a fluent jumper.
FOLK TUNE – Has the form to win this race. Was beaten just over 10 lengths by Wingman in November, Wingman won a grade 3 hurdle last Saturday. Has course and distance form and would be capable of winning from his current mark of 120. Graham Lee has ridden him for 10 of his 11 hurdles race. The only other jockey to ride him over hurdles is Tom Dreaper and he won on him and has a 100% record on the horse. Dreaper is riding again today (Lee injured). He ran in a class 2 handicap last time off this mark of 120 and was only beaten 6 ¾ lengths. He will find it easier back in class 3. Horse isn’t entirely straightforward and can carry his head high and be one pace in a finish. Has the ability to win this race and will almost certainly be involved in the finish.
VALAIN – Charlie Swan won this race in 2003. Valain ran flat last time (no obvious explanation), if you can forgive that run he has a chance in this race. Trainer has had 30 runners in Ireland in 2008 and all 30 have been beaten. Trainer has had 72 runners in the UK since May 2003 and has had just the one winner from those 72 runners. He won a handicap hurdle in Ireland off 88 and has since been beaten off 95,97, 99 and 102. He is racing off 115 for his first UK run and although the translation between Irish and UK handicap marks isn’t straightforward, 115 probably looks a bit high for him especially as he may have gone off the boil judging him on his run last time.
CALCULAITE – Only hurdles win came in a class 4 handicap from 105 last April. All career wins came between the months of April and September. Was last of 4 from 115 last time in this grade and last of 7 the time before in a class 4 novice. He bled from the nose two runs ago and does not look a horse to rely on to show his running. This grade may be slightly above him also. He is unlikely to be up to winning a class 3 handicap off 112 and could do with a drop in grade and the weights. He fell on his only previous course run (was running a good race) from a mark of 104. Trainer has had 11 runners in the last 2 weeks and all 11 were unplaced. All 24 of the trainers runners in 2008 have been beaten.
MASAFI – Won two novice hurdles over C&D in December 2005/ Jan 06. His record in handicap hurdles is 0 wins from 8 runs with 2 places. He has been unplaced in his last 4 course runs in handicap company beaten a total of 110 lengths in those 4 races. Unplaced over course and distance from a mark of 114 on his last two runs. The good ground will suit him today better than the good soft he ran on the last twice and he usually runs a good race on good ground. Couldn’t totally rule out on this better ground but at the same time hard to fancy.
PILCA – Won a class 3 handicap over C&D from a mark of 99 in November 2006. He then ran in tougher company, a listed handicap and 2 x class 2 handicaps. He was beaten 20 lengths on his first run for 9 months off a mark of 113 and then beaten on his 2nd run back from todays mark of 110. Its likely he needed that 1st run back and then bounced on his 2nd run. He is likely to be at peak fitness today and could easily be capable of winning a handicap from this mark of 110. Tom O’Brien is booked to ride him for the first time today. O ‘Brien has a 100% strike rate for this stable (1 winner from 1 previous ride) and looks a significant jockey booking. Both of his UK hurdles wins came on good ground so course, distance and ground are all ideal today.
He was beaten 17 ½ lengths by Folk Tune receiving 1 l/b in November, he is receiving 10 l/b today so is 9 l/b better off. That was Folk Tunes 3rd run of the season so he should have been close to peak fitness, whereas Pilca was making his seasonal reappearance and most likely needed the run. In the same race Stainley beat Pilca 16 lengths, but again Stainley was race fit and Pilca wasn’t, Pilca is also 5 l/b better off with that rival today.
SOUBRIQUET – Only 1 win from 21 career starts came on heavy ground. His best form is on soft and heavy so todays faster ground will not suit him. Looked out of form last time when unplaced on favoured heavy ground off todays mark of 109. Probably needs a drop in grade and in the weights. Unplaced 10th of 15 on only previous hurdles run at this track. Record going R/H in hurdles races is 10th of 15 and 13th of 15. Hard to fancy.
STAINLEY – Been beaten in handicaps from marks of 103 to 105 in his last 4 runs. Races off 105 again today. Won a novice over course and distance in November 2006. Has fair course form and will try and make all. 2 ½ mile trip can be blamed for poor run last time and this trip is more suitable. 5 l/b claimer is booked to ride for the first time today and this horse has an entry in a handicap on the 18th Feb, so its likely he will be trying to win today and running in that handicap under a penalty if successful. Was beaten 1 ½ lengths by Folk Tune in November but is 4 l/b better off with that rival plus the 5 l/b claim. Likely to trade shorter in running and go close.
FILM FESTIVAL – Unplaced in all 5 runs over hurdles. Was a better flat horse but has so far struggled to translate that ability to hurdles. Was well beaten 6th of 13 in a class 4 handicap from a mark of 97 last time and will find this tougher in class 3 from only a 2 l/b lower mark. Stable have had 1 winner from 69 runners over the last few years and that win came back in May 2007. Hard to fancy though flat form means it wouldn’t be the worlds biggest surprise if he did get involved, though that is more unlikely than it is likely.
Overview:
Film Festival, Soubriquet and Calculaite are the first 3 horses I would rule out of winning. I would consider it a surprise result if any of these 3 could win.
I would then place Masafi, Valain and Halla San in the next group. Masafi and Valain couldn’t totally be ruled out with complete confidence but I feel there are enough negatives and questions against them to take them on. Halla San will be a lot of peoples idea of the winner and is an odds on shot with a fancy entry, however his lack of fluency at his hurdles puts me off, along with this being his first experience of racing against battle hardened horses. The mark of 108 looks nothing more than fair (neither harsh or been let in) and I think he is under priced and worth taking on.
I think the key piece of form in this race is the Handicap hurdle over this course and distance on November 20th 2007 involving Folk Tune, Stainley and Pilca. I think that is strong form and all 3 runners hold sound claims in this race, Stainley will try and make all and will almost certainly trade at shorter odds in running and could win this time with the claimer taking off 5 l/b (horse is a straight forward ride and will try and make all), slight worry with Stainley was he ran poorly last time which may be totally excusable and down to the longer trip or he may be running out of form. Folk Tune is dangerous though doesn’t appear to be the most genuine and that could see him getting beat today although I expect him to be there abouts at the finish. Pilca will be overlooked by many but I feel this horse has the best chance today and the jockey booking looks significant. I want to lay the favourite as I feel he is vastly underpriced (though no big shock if he improves and is good enough to win today) and is worth taking on at the price. Pilca and Stainley stand out as being the two e/w bets in the race although Folk Tune is feared and Masafi and Valain are running on our side to get the lay beaten.
Halla Flan
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - PILCA @ 15.0 (Lay stake back at 6.0 in running)
3 Point Win - STAINLEY @ 13.0 (Lay stake back at 6.0 in running)
3 Point Lay - HALLA SAN @ 1.94
RESULT:
My main race of the day turned out to be my worst result as the day. Stainley and Pilca both marginally missed out of trading at 6.0 and meant we lost 6 points from the backs. The lay Halla San won, so it was a loss of 8.82 on the bet.
My My My Master
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - MY MENTOR @ 5.9 (Lay stake back in running at 3.0
RESULT:
A loss of 3 points as My Mentor was beaten and never touched 3.0 in running.
Ducthed bet
Advised bet:
2 Point Win - DIFFERENT CLASS @ 8.6 (Lay stake back at 4.6 in running)
2 Point Win - CADOULITIQUE @ 8.6 (Lay stake back at 4.6 in running)
RESULT:
6 Points profit straight back at you as Cadoulitique delivers.
Crapsian
Advised bet:
2 Point Lay - CRISPIAN @ 3.45
2 Point Win - APHRODISIA @ 2.9 (Lay stake back at 1.9 In running)
RESULT:
A loss of 6.90 points as Crispian just held on to win. Aphrodisia only went as low as 1.92 so we didnt get our stake back on that one.
Ofasti
Advised bet:
3 Point Win - OTAKI @ 5.0 (Lay stake back at 3.0 in running)
RESULT:
Otaki touched 2.0 in running before being beaten. So it was a bit of free entertainment that cost us nothing. No profit no loss.
Next bet at 3pm.
Le Burf and Majorca
Advised bet:
2 Point Win - LE BURF @ 3.9
2 Point Win - MAJORCA @ 5.3
RESULT:
An absolute rout of a result as Le Burf and Majorca destroyed the opposition. Majorca was the winner and thats 6.6 points profit on the bet.
Dont Backa rem
Advised bet:
2 Point Lay - AKAREM @ 3.5
2 Point Win - SUTHERLAND BELLE @ 6.6 (Lay stake back at 3.6 in running)
RESULT:
2 points profit on the bet as Akarem is beaten. Sutherland Belle was a disappointment but touched 2.6 in running so we lost nothing on that horse.
Top For Sure
Advised Bet
3 Point Win - TOP DRAW @ 2.8 (Lay stake back in running at 1.8)
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,254993,00.html
3 Points won as Top Draw wins a shade cosily.
Samuel Growls
Advised Bet
3 Point Lay - SAMUEL CHARLES @ 2.36
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,254992,00.html
A good start to the day and 3 points won as Samuel Charles was unplaced and comfortably beaten.
Todays bet
I took a day off from the blog yesterday following a very bad run of form. A very kind chap was actually kind enough to post my blog on the Betfair forum so I should have plenty of new readers to entertain.
In gambling you are either in bad form or you are in good form, I have certainly been in a bit of a bad run of form but the fact of the matter is the blog is about 70 points in profit in 2008. The figures dont lie and that is the facts, anybody calling for me to give it up on the back of those figures is simply dillusional.
Now everyone is in, starting at 1:15pm I expect a good run to begin.
Monday, 11 February 2008
Dutched bet
Advised bet:
5 Point Win - FIGURITA @ 9.0
5 Point Win - PERSONA @ 6.2
Really bad start to the day with 2 lays winning. Thats the way it can go when you are out of form. This is the last bet today and is a maximum dutched bet. Will be another awful day if I dont have the winner or it could be the best day of February if Figurita wins (which I expect him to).
RESULT:
Persona could only manage 2nd place with Figurita in 4th, the odds on favourite looked in trouble but found more and came back to win. A loss of 10 points.
Alexandra breeze - The winner ran past me again
Advised bet:
3 Point Lay - ALEXANDRA HURRICANE @ 3.05
RESULT:
A loss of 6.15 points on the bet as Alexandra Hurricane left his debut form behind and won.
2:30 Wetherby
Advised bet:
3 Point LAy - RUNTHATPASTMEAGAIN @ 2.74
RESULT:
A loss of 5.22 points as Runthatpastmeagain won.
Todays bet
I took a day off yesterday which I was planning to do anyway regardless of Saturdays bad day. Its business as normal today. I have 11 comments that I have not looked at or approved (they may be nice comments they may be moaning comments), I have decided I dont want to read any comments at present as bad comments can effect confidence and I dont need my confidence to be knocked by invisible readers of a blog. Confidence is everything and although many readers would look at the profit figure and see we are over 10 points down on the month and this is terrible, I would look at the figures and say, well the month is still new and there is a long way to go. I would then look at the 103 points profit made In january and realise, this is no disaster zone. Hopefully you can understand I dont need people telling me that I have lost it, we have simply been sailing through rough waters lately but the calm waters can return at any moment. :)