2:40 Warwick – Novice Chase (Class 3) 3m 2f Soft (Heavy in places)
PASS IT ON – (Jonjo o'Neil - A P McCoy)
# All 3 career wins have come at R/H track.
# Record going L/H is – Fell and 3rd.
# Never won on soft ground, beaten all 3 runs on this surface, best on good-sft (did win on heavy)
# Novice with a penalty
# This trip is 3f more than he won over last time
# Not guaranteed to stay.
# He has a tendency to jump to the right. That is why he usually races at a r/h track as he will lose ground at the fences racing this way.
# Jonjo O’Neil has only had 3 winners from 28 runners over fences in the last 5 years at Warwick.
# Stable is not firing and has had just 1 winner from 39 runners in December.
# Horse is underpriced as McCoy is riding.
DINNIE FANAGAN – Best when fresh. Likely to run a big race today. No problem with the trip and relishes a test. Likely to try and make all. Bred to be a chaser so should improve for this switch to fences. 2 best pieces of form including only win came on his seasonal debut so likely to run a big race today. Trainers 3 of last 5 runners have won (all on the a/w flat). Trainer has a 50% strike rate with his chasers here (1/2). Michael Murphy has won on the 3 of his 7 chase rides for this yard (43% SR) and has a useful 7 l/b claim.
ICONOCLAST – Good point to point form. Trip and ground likely to be ideal. Ran well on chase debut when 4th last time. Will be fitter today and will have benefited from the experience. Likely to run a big race.
BEAT THE BOYS – Came 1st, 2nd and 3rd in his last 3 races all in handicaps. Novice with a penalty today but is the most battle hardened horse in the field and this is an easier level than the handicaps he has been racing in. He looks progressive and is in good form. Stays the trip well, has to prove himself on soft but likely to handle it.
GRITTI PALACE – 1st run for 404 days and a lot will depend on how fit he is. On Official hurdle ratings he is the best horse in this race. Ran well on chase debut behind The Reverend when last season. His only win in 10 races came at this track over 3m 1f on soft ground. If he is fit then he should run a big race.
ELBOW LANE – Should improve for chase debut last time. Has a bit to find on figures but with improvement he can run well in this reason. Stays the trip well and no problem with the ground. A lively outsider.
HARRY BLADE – Was 2nd in a hurdles race over 3m 1 f at this track. Would have needed his 1st run of the season last time when pulled up and should go a lot better today. Has to prove he can jump fences and has to prove he is effective on soft ground but if he can jump and handle the ground then he would have a chance.
GENERAL ZHIANG – Has a lot to prove today and hard to fancy.
Overview:
This looks a competitive novice chase. Beat The Boys brings solid handicap form to the table. Iconoclast and Elbow Lane should both improve for there chase debut last time and should go well. Dinnie Flanagan and Harry Blade are interesting chase debutants and Gritti Palace will go well if fit. With the doubts about Pass It On going right handed as well as the step up in trip and poor stable form, laying the McCoy ridden horse with plenty of possible winners on my side should ensure New Years Eve is paid for. At the prices Dinnie Flanagan looks an interesting e/w bet at 12/1.
Advised Bet:
LAY – PASS IT ON @ 2.5
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251428,00.html
Pass It On was unplaced in 4th place, sealing a sucessful final lay of 2007. Dinnie Flanagan looked to have the race sewn up when he fell at the last, Harry Blade and Iconoclast also fell but the lay never looked like winning. Happy New Year and here is to an outstanding 2008.
Monday 31 December 2007
Sunday 30 December 2007
Dutched Delight
2:05 Haydock – Novices Handicap Chase (Class 3) 2m 4f Heavy
LIVINGONAKNIFEDGE – Won a class 3 handicap chase at Exeter on seasonal reappearance from a mark of 110. Was then PU on his 2nd run back over 2 mile 7 furlongs from a mark of 116. He was reported to be suffering from breathing problems, but it is possible the run came too soon and he bounced, also the longer trip wouldn’t have suited him. Racing off 116 again today he still looks to be on a winnable mark. He has won 2 races on Heavy ground and relishes these conditions. The trip of 2 ½ mile looks ideal and he has won on a galloping track before. Looks to hold an outstanding chance today as long as he doesn’t suffer from the breathing problems that were reported last time.
SCRIBANO ELLE – Has failed to complete in 5 of his 10 career races, not a horse who can be trusted. His only win over fences came at a sharp track. Won a chase from a mark of 104 and may now be a bit high in the handicap running from 116 today. He did win a bumper on heavy ground on his racecourse debut. His chase win came over 2m 7 and his hurdles win came over 3 m 1 so this trip looks on the sharp side for him today even on this heavy ground. Only raced 3 days ago and this may come too soon for him as he may be a better horse when fresh. Trainer has had just 1 chase winner from 23 runners in the last 5 years at Haydock.
LE ROI ROUGE – Won a chase and 3 hurdles races in France. Was unplaced from a mark of 112 at Carlisle over 2 ½ miles, and also unplaced from a mark of 112 at Wetherby over 2m 7f last time. He is prone to making mistakes and isn’t the most fluent of jumpers. He would probably prefer a longer trip and 2 ½ miles round Haydock is probably not ideal. Trainer Ferdy Murphy is 0 from 20 with his chasers at Haydock over the last 5 years and this horse may not be at his best today as this drop in trip will put more pressure on his jumping. Will relish the ground but not easy to fancy.
BALLABRIGS – Has only had 7 career races and it is unlikely we have seen the best of him yet. He slipped up round the bend at Bangor on his chase debut last time after the 6th fence. He appeared fancied for that race as he opened at 7/1 and was backed into a sp of 11/2. This is his handicap debut today and the mark of 108 may turn out to be quite lenient as he is bred to be a chaser and should improve on his hurdles form. His only run on heavy ground was his career worst run which will put a lot of people off him, however that was his hurdles debut and 1st run for 7 months so it’s likely he needed both the experience and the run. His best hurdles form came on soft ground and a lot of D McCain runners seem to love testing conditions so I don’t expect any problems with the ground today. 2 ½ miles looks his ideal trip and his best form has come on galloping tracks. Trevor Hemmings owns this horse and it is well known that Hemmings likes to have winners at Haydock. Should be at peak fitness for today’s run and likely to run a big race. D McCain has the best Haydock chase record out of any of todays trainers.
JUST FOR MEN – Won a novice handicap chase at Hexham over 2m 5f last time from a mark of 94. He is racing in a proper handicap today from an 8 l/b higher mark. This trip looks too sharp for him on a galloping track as he looks more of a stayer. Although it is only 1f shorter than the trip he won over last time, Hexham is a very testing course, and his previous runs had been over 3m +. M Todhunters record at Haydock is 0 winners from 24 runners. All 15 of Todhunters runners in December have been beaten.
JUNCTIONTWENTYFOUR – In 2 career runs on heavy ground he was beaten a total of 121 lengths. On his only previous run at Haydock he was beaten 67 lengths over this trip on this ground. Only career win came over 3 miles in a novice handicap chase at Lingfield from a mark off 86 on gd-sft. Has been beaten off 96 & 98 in his last two runs so racing off 99 today on heavy ground and 2 ½ miles he is hard to fancy. Trainer NJ Hawke has never had a winner at Haydock (has only had 3 runners to be fair). Inexperienced jockey Kieran Burke has never been given a chase winner by the stable, his record is 0 winners from 35 rides.
Overview:
2 horses really stand out for me in this race and they are the outsider ‘Livingonaknifedge’ and ‘Ballabrigs’. With negatives and questions surrounding all the others then I think we have a great chance of landing todays bet.
Advised bets:
1pnt Win & 1pnt Place – BALLABRIGS @ 6.4 & 3.0
1pnt Win & 1pnt Place – LIVINGONAKNIFEDGE @ 12.0 & 4.4
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251218,00.html
We didn't get the winner today unfortunately, but Ballabrigs did manage to get 2nd place and ensured we got back 75% of our total ammount staked on the race. I pointed out that Trevor Hemmings loves to have winners at Haydock and although Ballabrigs could only get 2nd, Hemmings had 2 winners on the card with Coe and Turpin Green and also had 3 placed horses in 5 of the 6 races. Not a bad days work for Trevor, where as I must try harder in 2008 as I detest being wrong.
LIVINGONAKNIFEDGE – Won a class 3 handicap chase at Exeter on seasonal reappearance from a mark of 110. Was then PU on his 2nd run back over 2 mile 7 furlongs from a mark of 116. He was reported to be suffering from breathing problems, but it is possible the run came too soon and he bounced, also the longer trip wouldn’t have suited him. Racing off 116 again today he still looks to be on a winnable mark. He has won 2 races on Heavy ground and relishes these conditions. The trip of 2 ½ mile looks ideal and he has won on a galloping track before. Looks to hold an outstanding chance today as long as he doesn’t suffer from the breathing problems that were reported last time.
SCRIBANO ELLE – Has failed to complete in 5 of his 10 career races, not a horse who can be trusted. His only win over fences came at a sharp track. Won a chase from a mark of 104 and may now be a bit high in the handicap running from 116 today. He did win a bumper on heavy ground on his racecourse debut. His chase win came over 2m 7 and his hurdles win came over 3 m 1 so this trip looks on the sharp side for him today even on this heavy ground. Only raced 3 days ago and this may come too soon for him as he may be a better horse when fresh. Trainer has had just 1 chase winner from 23 runners in the last 5 years at Haydock.
LE ROI ROUGE – Won a chase and 3 hurdles races in France. Was unplaced from a mark of 112 at Carlisle over 2 ½ miles, and also unplaced from a mark of 112 at Wetherby over 2m 7f last time. He is prone to making mistakes and isn’t the most fluent of jumpers. He would probably prefer a longer trip and 2 ½ miles round Haydock is probably not ideal. Trainer Ferdy Murphy is 0 from 20 with his chasers at Haydock over the last 5 years and this horse may not be at his best today as this drop in trip will put more pressure on his jumping. Will relish the ground but not easy to fancy.
BALLABRIGS – Has only had 7 career races and it is unlikely we have seen the best of him yet. He slipped up round the bend at Bangor on his chase debut last time after the 6th fence. He appeared fancied for that race as he opened at 7/1 and was backed into a sp of 11/2. This is his handicap debut today and the mark of 108 may turn out to be quite lenient as he is bred to be a chaser and should improve on his hurdles form. His only run on heavy ground was his career worst run which will put a lot of people off him, however that was his hurdles debut and 1st run for 7 months so it’s likely he needed both the experience and the run. His best hurdles form came on soft ground and a lot of D McCain runners seem to love testing conditions so I don’t expect any problems with the ground today. 2 ½ miles looks his ideal trip and his best form has come on galloping tracks. Trevor Hemmings owns this horse and it is well known that Hemmings likes to have winners at Haydock. Should be at peak fitness for today’s run and likely to run a big race. D McCain has the best Haydock chase record out of any of todays trainers.
JUST FOR MEN – Won a novice handicap chase at Hexham over 2m 5f last time from a mark of 94. He is racing in a proper handicap today from an 8 l/b higher mark. This trip looks too sharp for him on a galloping track as he looks more of a stayer. Although it is only 1f shorter than the trip he won over last time, Hexham is a very testing course, and his previous runs had been over 3m +. M Todhunters record at Haydock is 0 winners from 24 runners. All 15 of Todhunters runners in December have been beaten.
JUNCTIONTWENTYFOUR – In 2 career runs on heavy ground he was beaten a total of 121 lengths. On his only previous run at Haydock he was beaten 67 lengths over this trip on this ground. Only career win came over 3 miles in a novice handicap chase at Lingfield from a mark off 86 on gd-sft. Has been beaten off 96 & 98 in his last two runs so racing off 99 today on heavy ground and 2 ½ miles he is hard to fancy. Trainer NJ Hawke has never had a winner at Haydock (has only had 3 runners to be fair). Inexperienced jockey Kieran Burke has never been given a chase winner by the stable, his record is 0 winners from 35 rides.
Overview:
2 horses really stand out for me in this race and they are the outsider ‘Livingonaknifedge’ and ‘Ballabrigs’. With negatives and questions surrounding all the others then I think we have a great chance of landing todays bet.
Advised bets:
1pnt Win & 1pnt Place – BALLABRIGS @ 6.4 & 3.0
1pnt Win & 1pnt Place – LIVINGONAKNIFEDGE @ 12.0 & 4.4
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251218,00.html
We didn't get the winner today unfortunately, but Ballabrigs did manage to get 2nd place and ensured we got back 75% of our total ammount staked on the race. I pointed out that Trevor Hemmings loves to have winners at Haydock and although Ballabrigs could only get 2nd, Hemmings had 2 winners on the card with Coe and Turpin Green and also had 3 placed horses in 5 of the 6 races. Not a bad days work for Trevor, where as I must try harder in 2008 as I detest being wrong.
Saturday 29 December 2007
Beck the Wreck & Super Wreningham
7:00 Wolverhampton – (2yo) Maiden Stakes – 5f 20 yds
DUNMORE DODGER – Makes his racecourse debut this evening. Has a decent staying pedigree but is likely to find this 5f much too sharp on his debut run. Should be outpaced and would be a surprised if he was ready to win this evening.
CARNIVAL DREAM – Best form has come over 7f. Dropped down to 5f for the 1st time last time on Southwells heavier fibresand surface (would seem like further than 5f), the form behind Weet A Surprise when receiving lumps of weight leaves her with a lot to find with both ‘A Wish For You’ and ‘Wreningham’. I don’t fancy her at all this evening and will be very surprised were she to win. This is likely to come too soon for her as well just 2 days after her last race.
BAHAMIAN LAD – Best form is over 6 furlongs and looks as though a step up in trip is what he wants. Dropping down to 5 furlongs he is likely to be outpaced in this race. Dean McKeown has the worst record of any jockey riding for W M Brisbourne in 2007 with 7 rides and 7 defeats. Should be outpaced and jockey booking does not inspire confidence. Has the highest OR but that mark looks to flatter him and I cant fancy him over this trip.
A WISH FOR YOU – Has a clear form chance and understandable why she has been made the favourite. However she is a filly against colts and at around about EVS money looks underpriced. She has had 11 races and is the most raced horse in the field yet remains a maiden. She ran her best race last time on the Fibresand at Southwell and may be better suited to the slower surface. Still has a good form chance in this race and should be hard to keep out of the first 2. Jockey James O Reilly has a great record for the trainer although he is 0-4 on the trainers 2yo’s. Definite chance but underpriced.
WRENINGHAM – Career best form came over this C&D 2 runs ago. Ran a bit below form last time but likely that Lingfield didn’t suit. Had 8 runs but appears to still be progressing. Beat the favourite ‘A Wish For You’ over C&D 2 runs ago. The fav is better off at the weights this evening but Wreningham may well have more in hand than the distance he won by suggests as ‘A Wish For You’ tried to make all and Wreningham was produced to swoop past in the final furlong and only just missed out on the win. His last 5 races have been in handicap company where he has been running respectably and this is the first time he drops back to easier maiden company since his 1st 3 career runs. Should be the favourite as far as Im concerned and must have an outstanding chance of being in the first 2 this evening.
Overview:
The race looks to lie between Wreningham and A Wish For You, I cant fancy any of the other 3 runners in this race. I am siding with the gelding over the filly and Wreningham has already beaten A Wish For You once over C&D and has more scope for improvement. At the current prices there is only one bet for me and that is a 50/50 win and place back of Wreningham who must have an outstanding chance of landing the bet at what currently looks a very generous price.
Advised bet:
50% Win and 50% Place – WRENINGHAM @ 6.2 & 2.5
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251235,00.html
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9:00 Wolverhampton – Classified Stakes (Class 6) 1m 141yds Standard
BECK (W M Brisbourne – Duran Fentiman)
# Only ran 2 days ago, this may come too soon for him.
# This is his 7th race in just 32 days, the busy schedule has to catch up with him sooner or later. He is only a 3yo and could do with a break Mr Brisbourne.
# Brisbourne has 3 runners in this race. Out of the three jockeys who are riding for him this evening Duran Fentiman is at the bottom of the pecking order having had just 1 winner for the stable in 2007 and just 2 winners in the last 5 years for the stable.
# Horse has won just one race in 18 career runs.
# Was beaten by a horse OR 47 last time, his current OR of 53 looks to flatter him and at least 2 or 3 rivals look to hold better claims on OR.
ZABEEL HOUSE – The classiest horse in the race. As a 2yo he ran in a group 2 and was only beaten 7 lengths by Aiden O’Briens Horatio Nelson. He obviously isn’t up to that level these days but his best recent form is good enough to win this race. He has excuses for his last 2 runs – 1st time Visor didn’t suit last time at R/H Kempton and 1 ½ mile was too far for him the time before. The race before that he ran well in a C&D handicap and that piece of form makes him the horse to beat this evening. This is his first time running at this level and he could be hard to beat. He can go well fresh so the 61 days off track is not a worry and he has changed yards since his last run, new surroundings can often make a horse improve.
MORBRICK – Has only had 6 runs and is still open to improvement. Ran his best race of his career last time on his polytrack debut over C&D when beaten by the progressive Confidentiality. This is his first race at this level and appears to be the best of Brisbournes 3 runners. Likely to go well.
WINGED FARASI – Ran well below form last time but that was on the Southwell Fibresand so he can be excused that run. His career best run came the only time he raced over this C&D in March this year. If he can run anywhere near the form he showed on the C&D run then he has a big chance this evening. He looks to have the beating of Beck.
MAIDEN INVESTOR – Won over C&D last time with a career best run. Has a tendency to miss the break but has scope for improvement having had just 7 runs and if she can break well then she can get involved in this race.
THEATRE ROYAL – Won a Kempton handicap over 10f 4 runs ago but has ran below form in her last 3 races. Has the form in the book to run well in this race but her stable is out of form at present so couldn’t guarantee she will run well, though dangerous if she does spark back into form which is possible.
BLACKBURY – Another one of Brisbournes runners, hard to fancy on form but interesting that Liam Jones (Brisbournes best jockey of the 3) rides this one. Is entered in a handicap on Jan 3rd, so maybe the stable have confidence that she can win this evening. As I said on form I cant make a case for her but definitely not out of the question that she could win this race this evening.
SKY CHART – Ran a fair race when 8th on handicap debut last time at Catterick (Beaten just over 6 lengths. That was over 1 ½ mile and she raced as though this drop in trip would suit. Is the best off at the weights on Official ratings and could go very well in 1st time cheekpieces on her polytrack debut.
Overview:
It’s a competitive claimer and the favourite Beck looks to be underpriced. There looks to be plenty of horses in this race who are capable of beating Beck and we only need one of them to do it. Zabeel House stands out as the best E/W bet for me at 7/1 but my advice is the lay of the horrendous rogue ‘Beck’.
Advised Bet:
LAY – BECK @ 2.3
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251240,00.html
A very pleasing result to end the day with. Beck was unplaced, Morbrick was the best of the 3 Brisbourne runners, Winged Farasi ran a big race in 3rd and Zabeel House hacked up. Dont you just love it when a plan comes together.
DUNMORE DODGER – Makes his racecourse debut this evening. Has a decent staying pedigree but is likely to find this 5f much too sharp on his debut run. Should be outpaced and would be a surprised if he was ready to win this evening.
CARNIVAL DREAM – Best form has come over 7f. Dropped down to 5f for the 1st time last time on Southwells heavier fibresand surface (would seem like further than 5f), the form behind Weet A Surprise when receiving lumps of weight leaves her with a lot to find with both ‘A Wish For You’ and ‘Wreningham’. I don’t fancy her at all this evening and will be very surprised were she to win. This is likely to come too soon for her as well just 2 days after her last race.
BAHAMIAN LAD – Best form is over 6 furlongs and looks as though a step up in trip is what he wants. Dropping down to 5 furlongs he is likely to be outpaced in this race. Dean McKeown has the worst record of any jockey riding for W M Brisbourne in 2007 with 7 rides and 7 defeats. Should be outpaced and jockey booking does not inspire confidence. Has the highest OR but that mark looks to flatter him and I cant fancy him over this trip.
A WISH FOR YOU – Has a clear form chance and understandable why she has been made the favourite. However she is a filly against colts and at around about EVS money looks underpriced. She has had 11 races and is the most raced horse in the field yet remains a maiden. She ran her best race last time on the Fibresand at Southwell and may be better suited to the slower surface. Still has a good form chance in this race and should be hard to keep out of the first 2. Jockey James O Reilly has a great record for the trainer although he is 0-4 on the trainers 2yo’s. Definite chance but underpriced.
WRENINGHAM – Career best form came over this C&D 2 runs ago. Ran a bit below form last time but likely that Lingfield didn’t suit. Had 8 runs but appears to still be progressing. Beat the favourite ‘A Wish For You’ over C&D 2 runs ago. The fav is better off at the weights this evening but Wreningham may well have more in hand than the distance he won by suggests as ‘A Wish For You’ tried to make all and Wreningham was produced to swoop past in the final furlong and only just missed out on the win. His last 5 races have been in handicap company where he has been running respectably and this is the first time he drops back to easier maiden company since his 1st 3 career runs. Should be the favourite as far as Im concerned and must have an outstanding chance of being in the first 2 this evening.
Overview:
The race looks to lie between Wreningham and A Wish For You, I cant fancy any of the other 3 runners in this race. I am siding with the gelding over the filly and Wreningham has already beaten A Wish For You once over C&D and has more scope for improvement. At the current prices there is only one bet for me and that is a 50/50 win and place back of Wreningham who must have an outstanding chance of landing the bet at what currently looks a very generous price.
Advised bet:
50% Win and 50% Place – WRENINGHAM @ 6.2 & 2.5
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251235,00.html
Not the result I was looking for.
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9:00 Wolverhampton – Classified Stakes (Class 6) 1m 141yds Standard
BECK (W M Brisbourne – Duran Fentiman)
# Only ran 2 days ago, this may come too soon for him.
# This is his 7th race in just 32 days, the busy schedule has to catch up with him sooner or later. He is only a 3yo and could do with a break Mr Brisbourne.
# Brisbourne has 3 runners in this race. Out of the three jockeys who are riding for him this evening Duran Fentiman is at the bottom of the pecking order having had just 1 winner for the stable in 2007 and just 2 winners in the last 5 years for the stable.
# Horse has won just one race in 18 career runs.
# Was beaten by a horse OR 47 last time, his current OR of 53 looks to flatter him and at least 2 or 3 rivals look to hold better claims on OR.
ZABEEL HOUSE – The classiest horse in the race. As a 2yo he ran in a group 2 and was only beaten 7 lengths by Aiden O’Briens Horatio Nelson. He obviously isn’t up to that level these days but his best recent form is good enough to win this race. He has excuses for his last 2 runs – 1st time Visor didn’t suit last time at R/H Kempton and 1 ½ mile was too far for him the time before. The race before that he ran well in a C&D handicap and that piece of form makes him the horse to beat this evening. This is his first time running at this level and he could be hard to beat. He can go well fresh so the 61 days off track is not a worry and he has changed yards since his last run, new surroundings can often make a horse improve.
MORBRICK – Has only had 6 runs and is still open to improvement. Ran his best race of his career last time on his polytrack debut over C&D when beaten by the progressive Confidentiality. This is his first race at this level and appears to be the best of Brisbournes 3 runners. Likely to go well.
WINGED FARASI – Ran well below form last time but that was on the Southwell Fibresand so he can be excused that run. His career best run came the only time he raced over this C&D in March this year. If he can run anywhere near the form he showed on the C&D run then he has a big chance this evening. He looks to have the beating of Beck.
MAIDEN INVESTOR – Won over C&D last time with a career best run. Has a tendency to miss the break but has scope for improvement having had just 7 runs and if she can break well then she can get involved in this race.
THEATRE ROYAL – Won a Kempton handicap over 10f 4 runs ago but has ran below form in her last 3 races. Has the form in the book to run well in this race but her stable is out of form at present so couldn’t guarantee she will run well, though dangerous if she does spark back into form which is possible.
BLACKBURY – Another one of Brisbournes runners, hard to fancy on form but interesting that Liam Jones (Brisbournes best jockey of the 3) rides this one. Is entered in a handicap on Jan 3rd, so maybe the stable have confidence that she can win this evening. As I said on form I cant make a case for her but definitely not out of the question that she could win this race this evening.
SKY CHART – Ran a fair race when 8th on handicap debut last time at Catterick (Beaten just over 6 lengths. That was over 1 ½ mile and she raced as though this drop in trip would suit. Is the best off at the weights on Official ratings and could go very well in 1st time cheekpieces on her polytrack debut.
Overview:
It’s a competitive claimer and the favourite Beck looks to be underpriced. There looks to be plenty of horses in this race who are capable of beating Beck and we only need one of them to do it. Zabeel House stands out as the best E/W bet for me at 7/1 but my advice is the lay of the horrendous rogue ‘Beck’.
Advised Bet:
LAY – BECK @ 2.3
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251240,00.html
A very pleasing result to end the day with. Beck was unplaced, Morbrick was the best of the 3 Brisbourne runners, Winged Farasi ran a big race in 3rd and Zabeel House hacked up. Dont you just love it when a plan comes together.
Well Rubbish
12:25 Leapordstown – Handicap Chase (4yo+) 2m 5f Gd-Yld
WELL RUN – (N Meade – E M Butterly)
# Off track for 8 months before recent reappearance, given just 7 days to recover he could bounce and run below form today.
# Noel Meades last 24 runners have all been beaten (including some short priced favs).
# Noel Meade is one of Irelands top trainers, however his record with chasers at Leapordstown is extremely poor for a trainer of his calibre. Just 2 wins from 50 runners in the last 5 years (4% SR).
# Top jockey Paul Carberry rode last time. 2 l/b claimer E M Butterly takes the ride today. His record at Leapordstown is 0 winners from 5 rides.
# Horse isn’t a very fluent jumper and is prone to making mistakes.
# Horse lacks size and is very small for a chaser.
# 4 l/b penalty today (still leaves him ahead of the handicapper but he may not be seen at his best on this occasion).
# Although fully effective at this trip he will do better when sent over 3mile +.
Overview:
I was struggling to find a quality short priced lay today even though there are plenty of meetings, so I have crossed the Irish sea once more to find a bet. Although this isn’t by any means the strongest lay I have ever come up with, I think its well worth taking this horse on today at the price. The race is a lot more competitive than the market suggests and Noel Meades recent dip in form combined with his awful track record means this is not a horse you would want to back at a short price. Add in the potential bounce factor, the jockey, the horses tendency to make mistakes then at around 6/4 I am happy to be a layer. We have 7 decent horses in opposition today and only need one of them to beat the favourite. Forest Leaves stands out for me as a great E/W bet in this race at 16/1 but my advice is the lay of the cretinous imbercile of a favourite Well Run.
Advised Bet:
LAY – WELL RUN @ 2.5
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251342,00.html
A good comeback after yesterdays embarrassing affair. Well Run fell which is always a possibility with a horse who isnt a fluent jumper. It ensured that Noel Meades record with chasers at Leapordstown became even worse and landed us the lay. Hard to say how he would have done if he stayed on his feet as he was still in the race at the time but im confident that we would have still got him beaten even if he stayed on his feet when the bounce factor would have kicked in, in the final 2 furlongs. My e/w fancy Forest Leaves at 16/1 came home in 3rd place landing a nice touch for anyone who got on.
WELL RUN – (N Meade – E M Butterly)
# Off track for 8 months before recent reappearance, given just 7 days to recover he could bounce and run below form today.
# Noel Meades last 24 runners have all been beaten (including some short priced favs).
# Noel Meade is one of Irelands top trainers, however his record with chasers at Leapordstown is extremely poor for a trainer of his calibre. Just 2 wins from 50 runners in the last 5 years (4% SR).
# Top jockey Paul Carberry rode last time. 2 l/b claimer E M Butterly takes the ride today. His record at Leapordstown is 0 winners from 5 rides.
# Horse isn’t a very fluent jumper and is prone to making mistakes.
# Horse lacks size and is very small for a chaser.
# 4 l/b penalty today (still leaves him ahead of the handicapper but he may not be seen at his best on this occasion).
# Although fully effective at this trip he will do better when sent over 3mile +.
Overview:
I was struggling to find a quality short priced lay today even though there are plenty of meetings, so I have crossed the Irish sea once more to find a bet. Although this isn’t by any means the strongest lay I have ever come up with, I think its well worth taking this horse on today at the price. The race is a lot more competitive than the market suggests and Noel Meades recent dip in form combined with his awful track record means this is not a horse you would want to back at a short price. Add in the potential bounce factor, the jockey, the horses tendency to make mistakes then at around 6/4 I am happy to be a layer. We have 7 decent horses in opposition today and only need one of them to beat the favourite. Forest Leaves stands out for me as a great E/W bet in this race at 16/1 but my advice is the lay of the cretinous imbercile of a favourite Well Run.
Advised Bet:
LAY – WELL RUN @ 2.5
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251342,00.html
A good comeback after yesterdays embarrassing affair. Well Run fell which is always a possibility with a horse who isnt a fluent jumper. It ensured that Noel Meades record with chasers at Leapordstown became even worse and landed us the lay. Hard to say how he would have done if he stayed on his feet as he was still in the race at the time but im confident that we would have still got him beaten even if he stayed on his feet when the bounce factor would have kicked in, in the final 2 furlongs. My e/w fancy Forest Leaves at 16/1 came home in 3rd place landing a nice touch for anyone who got on.
Friday 28 December 2007
Stupid Boys
2:15 Limerick – Handicap Hurdle (4yo +) 2m 5f Heavy
BELLFLOWER BOY – (E McNamara - K T Coleman)
# 4yo carrying top weight against elders
# 11-7 is the most weight he has ever carried.
# Only carried 10-11 and 10-13 for his last two wins.
# Has a 4 l/b penalty today.
# Wins came on good ground and he is unproven on heavy and the youngster should find it tough to give a lot of weight away all round on this going.
# Won over 2 mile 7 last time, dropping down in trip to 2m 5 today.
# Race may come too soon, just 5 days after his last run.
# In the 6 previous running’s of this race no 4yo has won, the winner has been aged between 5 and 8 years old.
# No 4yo has even managed to place in this race.
# K T Coleman replaces Barry Geraghty in the saddle today. The only previous time Coleman rode the horse he was 12/15 beaten 47 lengths.
# K T Colemans record for E McNamara is just 1 win from 20 hurdles rides.
# It was a novice handicap he won last time, this is a proper handicap and tougher.
Overview:
This looks a competitive handicap with 18 runners. Bellflower Boy looks underpriced and we have enough negatives against him to justify laying him in this large field. It looks a very tough race to call the winner but a big priced winner will be no surprise to me. The Irish markets are fairly weak early especially in the place market but it should be trading around 1.3 or shorter in that market pre race. By splitting the bet this way it guarantees a good return as long as its beaten and is a ‘Brucie Bonus’ if we can get it out of the places as well.
Advised Bet: -
3 pnt LAY – BELLFLOWER BOY @ 2.5
2 pnt PLACE LAY – BELLFLOWER BOY @ 1.3
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251296,00.html
A big disappointment as Bellflower Boy becomes the first lay I have given on my own blog to go and win his race. I was happy with my reasoning for taking the horse on at the price but obviously not happy with the result.
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2:20 Catterick – Novice Chase (Class 3) 2m gd-fm
CEDRUS LIBANI (J Howard Johnson – Dennis O’Regan)
# Novice with a double penalty
# Has won 2/2 races over fences, though it was a 2 horse race he won last time and the form can’t be taken at face value as the pace was only moderate and his only opponent didn’t jump fluently.
# Was OR 118 over hurdles, both Sunday City and Caraman were rated higher in that sphere and are receiving 4 l/b and 10 l/b respectively. Sunisa was rated 115 and is receiving 17 l/b.
# 3 of his 4 career wins came at testing tracks, although he did win at a flat track last time, that was a 2 horse race and the form may be unreliable.
# Unproven on a sharp track
# Career wins, 2 on soft ground, 2 on good ground
# Unraced on ground this fast
SUNDAY CITY - Did win a handicap hurdle at Catterick so no problem with sharp tracks. Was OR 130 over hurdles and did win from a mark of 124 over hurdles. So had a 16 l/b higher hurdles rating than the favourite and also receives 4 l/b from him. Last 2 runs were over 2 ½ miles but does have the pace for the minimum distance so no problem with stepping down in trip. Although he has never won on gd-fm ground he is proven to be effective on this ground.
CARAMAN – Was OR 127 over hurdles (13 l/b higher than favourite) and receives 10 l/b from Cedrus Libani. This is his first time over fences but he may turn out to be better in this discipline than he was over hurdles, a lot will depend on how he jumps, if he is fluent then he must stand a good chance at the weights. He has won at a sharp track before and his best hurdles form came over 2 miles.
SUNISA – Won off OR 104 over hurdles in December last year and was rated as high as 115 in that sphere. Recieves 17 l/b from the favourite. Probably best on a galloping track though does handle a sharp track. Best form has come on a slower surface so has to be a worry the ground will be too fast today. 2 miles is ideal. Chase debut, needs to prove she can jump fences.
CHAMPAGNE ROSSI, DISPOL PETE, JUST POSH – The three outsiders all look out of there depth in this race and no case can be made for any of them. Major shock if one of these three rapscallions were to win this race.
Overview:
The favourite looks well underpriced although it will be no shock if he does win. Caraman looks to have a very good chance in this race as long as he takes to fences (reported to have schooled well), with trip, track and ground looking ideal I think it is worth having one of my patented 25/75 bets on Caraman at very generous odds as the three outsiders look to have no chance, Sunisa isnt at her best on this faster ground, it should mean that if Caraman can finish in front of Sunday City then we should be collecting and it will be a big bonus at a very nice price if we can also beat the favourite which is very possible.
Advised Bet:
25/75 ©- CARAMAN @ 16.0 & 3.55
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251121,00.html
A bad day was capped off with Caraman only managing to get 3rd place. Again I was happy with the bet as although the favourite won he did not win like a 4/11 shot should win and so was clearly underpriced. As I predicted it came down to a match between Sunday City and Caraman as to which one would prove the danger and although we got the wrong one, In a situation where it basically boiled down to a one on one for the places, we went for the horse priced at 3.55 for a place as opposed to Sunday City who was priced around 1.67, so although we didnt win on this occasion long term we will show a good profit when approaching these types of races.
BELLFLOWER BOY – (E McNamara - K T Coleman)
# 4yo carrying top weight against elders
# 11-7 is the most weight he has ever carried.
# Only carried 10-11 and 10-13 for his last two wins.
# Has a 4 l/b penalty today.
# Wins came on good ground and he is unproven on heavy and the youngster should find it tough to give a lot of weight away all round on this going.
# Won over 2 mile 7 last time, dropping down in trip to 2m 5 today.
# Race may come too soon, just 5 days after his last run.
# In the 6 previous running’s of this race no 4yo has won, the winner has been aged between 5 and 8 years old.
# No 4yo has even managed to place in this race.
# K T Coleman replaces Barry Geraghty in the saddle today. The only previous time Coleman rode the horse he was 12/15 beaten 47 lengths.
# K T Colemans record for E McNamara is just 1 win from 20 hurdles rides.
# It was a novice handicap he won last time, this is a proper handicap and tougher.
Overview:
This looks a competitive handicap with 18 runners. Bellflower Boy looks underpriced and we have enough negatives against him to justify laying him in this large field. It looks a very tough race to call the winner but a big priced winner will be no surprise to me. The Irish markets are fairly weak early especially in the place market but it should be trading around 1.3 or shorter in that market pre race. By splitting the bet this way it guarantees a good return as long as its beaten and is a ‘Brucie Bonus’ if we can get it out of the places as well.
Advised Bet: -
3 pnt LAY – BELLFLOWER BOY @ 2.5
2 pnt PLACE LAY – BELLFLOWER BOY @ 1.3
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251296,00.html
A big disappointment as Bellflower Boy becomes the first lay I have given on my own blog to go and win his race. I was happy with my reasoning for taking the horse on at the price but obviously not happy with the result.
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2:20 Catterick – Novice Chase (Class 3) 2m gd-fm
CEDRUS LIBANI (J Howard Johnson – Dennis O’Regan)
# Novice with a double penalty
# Has won 2/2 races over fences, though it was a 2 horse race he won last time and the form can’t be taken at face value as the pace was only moderate and his only opponent didn’t jump fluently.
# Was OR 118 over hurdles, both Sunday City and Caraman were rated higher in that sphere and are receiving 4 l/b and 10 l/b respectively. Sunisa was rated 115 and is receiving 17 l/b.
# 3 of his 4 career wins came at testing tracks, although he did win at a flat track last time, that was a 2 horse race and the form may be unreliable.
# Unproven on a sharp track
# Career wins, 2 on soft ground, 2 on good ground
# Unraced on ground this fast
SUNDAY CITY - Did win a handicap hurdle at Catterick so no problem with sharp tracks. Was OR 130 over hurdles and did win from a mark of 124 over hurdles. So had a 16 l/b higher hurdles rating than the favourite and also receives 4 l/b from him. Last 2 runs were over 2 ½ miles but does have the pace for the minimum distance so no problem with stepping down in trip. Although he has never won on gd-fm ground he is proven to be effective on this ground.
CARAMAN – Was OR 127 over hurdles (13 l/b higher than favourite) and receives 10 l/b from Cedrus Libani. This is his first time over fences but he may turn out to be better in this discipline than he was over hurdles, a lot will depend on how he jumps, if he is fluent then he must stand a good chance at the weights. He has won at a sharp track before and his best hurdles form came over 2 miles.
SUNISA – Won off OR 104 over hurdles in December last year and was rated as high as 115 in that sphere. Recieves 17 l/b from the favourite. Probably best on a galloping track though does handle a sharp track. Best form has come on a slower surface so has to be a worry the ground will be too fast today. 2 miles is ideal. Chase debut, needs to prove she can jump fences.
CHAMPAGNE ROSSI, DISPOL PETE, JUST POSH – The three outsiders all look out of there depth in this race and no case can be made for any of them. Major shock if one of these three rapscallions were to win this race.
Overview:
The favourite looks well underpriced although it will be no shock if he does win. Caraman looks to have a very good chance in this race as long as he takes to fences (reported to have schooled well), with trip, track and ground looking ideal I think it is worth having one of my patented 25/75 bets on Caraman at very generous odds as the three outsiders look to have no chance, Sunisa isnt at her best on this faster ground, it should mean that if Caraman can finish in front of Sunday City then we should be collecting and it will be a big bonus at a very nice price if we can also beat the favourite which is very possible.
Advised Bet:
25/75 ©- CARAMAN @ 16.0 & 3.55
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251121,00.html
A bad day was capped off with Caraman only managing to get 3rd place. Again I was happy with the bet as although the favourite won he did not win like a 4/11 shot should win and so was clearly underpriced. As I predicted it came down to a match between Sunday City and Caraman as to which one would prove the danger and although we got the wrong one, In a situation where it basically boiled down to a one on one for the places, we went for the horse priced at 3.55 for a place as opposed to Sunday City who was priced around 1.67, so although we didnt win on this occasion long term we will show a good profit when approaching these types of races.
Thursday 27 December 2007
Punting Patto's Australian race tips
It is with great pleasure that one of the most legendary Australian tipsters known to man has allowed me to post his weekly Australian racing tips on my blog.
I have never seen a tipster like this before- Original, outrageous, legendary, sensational, far out and off the hook are just some of the words to describe the greatest Melbournian known to mankind.
Every week Patto makes a video and tells you his best bets for the Saturday racing in a way that no one else could even dream about equalling. I have followed his weekly videos since pretty much day 1 and he is my favourite racing pundit anywhere in the world. I hope you enjoy his weekly vids.
Here are some links to some of my favourite Punting Patto moments and of course the very latest - episode 38 (The last one of 2007) with this Saturdays selections. I will be back on Friday with my bets as usual.
Episode 38 - http://www.youtube.com/v/ijF0Nd38xQ0
Christmas Message - http://www.youtube.com/v/kAScypue2Tk
Episode 36 - http://www.youtube.com/v/rkp-OlC-66o
Melbourne Cup 07 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1k7R36Hoto
11th August 07 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAxKNvWQKug
I have never seen a tipster like this before- Original, outrageous, legendary, sensational, far out and off the hook are just some of the words to describe the greatest Melbournian known to mankind.
Every week Patto makes a video and tells you his best bets for the Saturday racing in a way that no one else could even dream about equalling. I have followed his weekly videos since pretty much day 1 and he is my favourite racing pundit anywhere in the world. I hope you enjoy his weekly vids.
Here are some links to some of my favourite Punting Patto moments and of course the very latest - episode 38 (The last one of 2007) with this Saturdays selections. I will be back on Friday with my bets as usual.
Episode 38 - http://www.youtube.com/v/ijF0Nd38xQ0
Christmas Message - http://www.youtube.com/v/kAScypue2Tk
Episode 36 - http://www.youtube.com/v/rkp-OlC-66o
Melbourne Cup 07 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1k7R36Hoto
11th August 07 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAxKNvWQKug
Sunday 23 December 2007
Saturday 22 December 2007
Endless Mongrels
3:05 Haydock – Novices Chase (class 3) 2m Good-Soft
ENDLESS POWER – (J Goldie – Richard McGrath)
# Trainers record is 0/8 at Haydock in the last 5 years
# Horse is an Ayr specialist. All 4 career wins came at Ayr (2x hurdles, a chase and a bumper)
# Won an Ayr Handicap chase from OR 115 in November over 2m 4f, was then raced in a novice chase last time as his new chase rating of 124 is too high for him to win off in a handicap.
# Sent over 2 mile last time in the novice chase he was outpaced over the trip by a filly (the runners he beat all needed further as well so the form isn’t as good as it appears). Same trip again today should ensure he is outpaced at the business end and get his OR lowered for future racing.
# Needs 2 ½ mile to show best form.
# 2 career wins on heavy and 2 career wins on soft. The forecast good-soft ground is not what he wants, especially over a trip this short.
# Ran below form all 3 runs on good-soft.
# Ran below form all 6 career runs away from Ayr (12/18 races have been at Ayr)
# He had Donald McCains ‘Jungleland’ behind him last time. McCain has 2 runners in this race and must have a good idea what is required to beat Endless Power.
# Record in novice hurdles & chases is 4 runs and 4 defeats (3 x unplaced). He is a novice with a penalty today.
# Likes to make all, Cromwell Court can front run as well and may battle Endless Power for the lead which will help set the race up for Cromwells stable mate Sunday City who is likely to track the leaders.
CROMWELL COURT – Appears to be McCains second string, likely to be used to fight Endless Power for the early lead which will help set stable mate up for the race. Didn’t look impressive on chase debut and made some jumping errors. Drop back to 2 miles may suit him more than the 2 ½ miles he raced over the last twice and is open to improvement. Hard to fancy but not totally ruled out and a fair outsider to have on our side to beat the favourite.
SUNDAY CITY – Appears to be McCains first string and best chance. Trainer knows what is required to beat Endless Power through a form line with Jungleland. Ran a big race over this C&D in a hurdles handicap off 124 last season. Has won over 2 ½ miles over fences but has the tactical speed also for this minimum trip, so no worries with the drop down in trip. Effective on good-soft. Hurdles rating was 15 l/b higher than Endless Power, racing from level weights today Sunday City should prove to be the better horse especially with the ground and track in favour of Sunday City.
NIKOLA – Has finished 2nd on all 3 chase runs. Isn’t an ungenuine horse though and won 2 of 11 hurdles races and also won twice on the flat. Recieves 6 l/b from both Endless Power and Sunday City. Came last of 19 on only previous course run (hurdles) however that was his 8th race of the season (and last) and he was probably over the top, so no reason why this track wont suit. Won a handicap hurdle from 116 in December last year on his 4th run of the season over 2 miles. This is his 4th run of the season and he clearly likes this time of the year so he could be spot on today. Appears to handle any going. Has raced over 2 ½ miles and 3 miles effectively but both career wins did come over 2mile. Tackling 2 mile for the first time over fences could be what he wants. Trainer only 1/22 with chasers at Haydock. David England has a 31 % strike rate in 2007 on Twiston-Davies chasers and has a useful 3 l/b claim.
OFF SPIN – A very interesting runner for P Webber. He won a bumper on his race course debut in April 05 over 2 miles at Uttoxeter. He was then put away before reappearing in a grade 2 Novice hurdle at Cheltenham when beaten 38 lengths by Boychuck. That was 771 days ago and he hasn’t been see since. This is his chase debut today, but if he was thought to be good enough to go straight into hurdling at Grade 2 level then he must be well thought of. This class 3 novice chase could turn out to be easy pickings for him. Webber is likely to have him well schooled and is certainly capable of getting his horses fit first time up. He is related to Grand National winner Party Politics so is bred to jump fences. Trainer has a 33 % strike rate with chasers at Haydock. Could well need the run and may well need further but possibly a cut above these horses if fully tuned and ready. N/R
DALDINI – Trainer has a 23% strike rate with chasers at Haydock. Horse is Officially rated 4 l/b below Endless Power and is racing off level weights, however Daldini looks capable of winning a handicap from his current mark of 120 where as I don’t think Endless Power will be able to win a handicap from his mark of 124 so by my calculations I have Daldini as the better horse. He is fully effective at today’s trip and looks to be an improving horse over fences. Track, trip and ground will all suit and cant be ruled out of calculations.
Advised Bet:
3 Point LAY – ENDLESS POWER @ 2.88
2 Point PLACE LAY – ENDLESS POWER @ 1.55
Overview:
Endless Power has to be taken on today. The race is unlikely to be run to suit for him as he wont be allowed an uncontested lead in this field. The ground is not in his favour. Everytime he races away from Ayr he gets beat. His official handicap mark flatters him and this trip is much too sharp for him on todays ground. Off Spin is a non runner now but we have 3 solid horses running for us to get the mongrel beaten and Cromwell Court who may be capable of better than he has shown so far. Sunday City is the likeliest winner for me though I cant rule out Daldini or Nikola. I have gone for a lay of Endless Power in both the win and place market (even if he does get 2nd then the bet still shows a good profit and it's a 'Brucie Bonus' if we can get him out of the frame which looks quite achievable.
RESULT = http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,250709,00.html
A satisfactory result as even with Sunday City and Off Spin being non runners Endless Power didn't beat any of his rivals and finished last of four.
ENDLESS POWER – (J Goldie – Richard McGrath)
# Trainers record is 0/8 at Haydock in the last 5 years
# Horse is an Ayr specialist. All 4 career wins came at Ayr (2x hurdles, a chase and a bumper)
# Won an Ayr Handicap chase from OR 115 in November over 2m 4f, was then raced in a novice chase last time as his new chase rating of 124 is too high for him to win off in a handicap.
# Sent over 2 mile last time in the novice chase he was outpaced over the trip by a filly (the runners he beat all needed further as well so the form isn’t as good as it appears). Same trip again today should ensure he is outpaced at the business end and get his OR lowered for future racing.
# Needs 2 ½ mile to show best form.
# 2 career wins on heavy and 2 career wins on soft. The forecast good-soft ground is not what he wants, especially over a trip this short.
# Ran below form all 3 runs on good-soft.
# Ran below form all 6 career runs away from Ayr (12/18 races have been at Ayr)
# He had Donald McCains ‘Jungleland’ behind him last time. McCain has 2 runners in this race and must have a good idea what is required to beat Endless Power.
# Record in novice hurdles & chases is 4 runs and 4 defeats (3 x unplaced). He is a novice with a penalty today.
# Likes to make all, Cromwell Court can front run as well and may battle Endless Power for the lead which will help set the race up for Cromwells stable mate Sunday City who is likely to track the leaders.
CROMWELL COURT – Appears to be McCains second string, likely to be used to fight Endless Power for the early lead which will help set stable mate up for the race. Didn’t look impressive on chase debut and made some jumping errors. Drop back to 2 miles may suit him more than the 2 ½ miles he raced over the last twice and is open to improvement. Hard to fancy but not totally ruled out and a fair outsider to have on our side to beat the favourite.
SUNDAY CITY – Appears to be McCains first string and best chance. Trainer knows what is required to beat Endless Power through a form line with Jungleland. Ran a big race over this C&D in a hurdles handicap off 124 last season. Has won over 2 ½ miles over fences but has the tactical speed also for this minimum trip, so no worries with the drop down in trip. Effective on good-soft. Hurdles rating was 15 l/b higher than Endless Power, racing from level weights today Sunday City should prove to be the better horse especially with the ground and track in favour of Sunday City.
NIKOLA – Has finished 2nd on all 3 chase runs. Isn’t an ungenuine horse though and won 2 of 11 hurdles races and also won twice on the flat. Recieves 6 l/b from both Endless Power and Sunday City. Came last of 19 on only previous course run (hurdles) however that was his 8th race of the season (and last) and he was probably over the top, so no reason why this track wont suit. Won a handicap hurdle from 116 in December last year on his 4th run of the season over 2 miles. This is his 4th run of the season and he clearly likes this time of the year so he could be spot on today. Appears to handle any going. Has raced over 2 ½ miles and 3 miles effectively but both career wins did come over 2mile. Tackling 2 mile for the first time over fences could be what he wants. Trainer only 1/22 with chasers at Haydock. David England has a 31 % strike rate in 2007 on Twiston-Davies chasers and has a useful 3 l/b claim.
OFF SPIN – A very interesting runner for P Webber. He won a bumper on his race course debut in April 05 over 2 miles at Uttoxeter. He was then put away before reappearing in a grade 2 Novice hurdle at Cheltenham when beaten 38 lengths by Boychuck. That was 771 days ago and he hasn’t been see since. This is his chase debut today, but if he was thought to be good enough to go straight into hurdling at Grade 2 level then he must be well thought of. This class 3 novice chase could turn out to be easy pickings for him. Webber is likely to have him well schooled and is certainly capable of getting his horses fit first time up. He is related to Grand National winner Party Politics so is bred to jump fences. Trainer has a 33 % strike rate with chasers at Haydock. Could well need the run and may well need further but possibly a cut above these horses if fully tuned and ready. N/R
DALDINI – Trainer has a 23% strike rate with chasers at Haydock. Horse is Officially rated 4 l/b below Endless Power and is racing off level weights, however Daldini looks capable of winning a handicap from his current mark of 120 where as I don’t think Endless Power will be able to win a handicap from his mark of 124 so by my calculations I have Daldini as the better horse. He is fully effective at today’s trip and looks to be an improving horse over fences. Track, trip and ground will all suit and cant be ruled out of calculations.
Advised Bet:
3 Point LAY – ENDLESS POWER @ 2.88
2 Point PLACE LAY – ENDLESS POWER @ 1.55
Overview:
Endless Power has to be taken on today. The race is unlikely to be run to suit for him as he wont be allowed an uncontested lead in this field. The ground is not in his favour. Everytime he races away from Ayr he gets beat. His official handicap mark flatters him and this trip is much too sharp for him on todays ground. Off Spin is a non runner now but we have 3 solid horses running for us to get the mongrel beaten and Cromwell Court who may be capable of better than he has shown so far. Sunday City is the likeliest winner for me though I cant rule out Daldini or Nikola. I have gone for a lay of Endless Power in both the win and place market (even if he does get 2nd then the bet still shows a good profit and it's a 'Brucie Bonus' if we can get him out of the frame which looks quite achievable.
RESULT = http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,250709,00.html
A satisfactory result as even with Sunday City and Off Spin being non runners Endless Power didn't beat any of his rivals and finished last of four.
Friday 21 December 2007
Baron Sensational
20:25 Wolverhampton – Class 5 Maiden Stakes (2yo)
PRINCESS ZHUKOVA – Stable have never had a 2yo winner, never mind a 2yo debutant. Outsider of the field and nothing at all to suggest this filly will run well today. Impossible to fancy.
FADHB AR BITH – Stable have had just one 2yo winner in the last 4 years and that was in September 2006. Trainer is 0-5 with Wolverhampton runners. Stable haven’t had a winner since September and are out of form. Impossible to fancy.
BENEDICT SPIRIT – Out of the 3 outsiders this one has clearly the best chance of the 3. It made a fair debut on good-sft ground at Redcar back in September but has been off track since. Most stable runners improve for the run but this is a tough maiden and there doesent appear to be any stable confidence behind this tonight and it looks the type do better when handicapping.
SPICE TRADE – Trainer Jeremy Noseda has an outrageous record with 2yo’s at this track. In the last 5 years he has had 7 runners and 5 of them won (71% Strike Rate). Any 2yo he sends here has to be taken seriously regardless of previous form. Trainer has had 2 runners in the last 2 weeks with one of them winning (50%). Still a maiden after 3 turf runs. Was 4th last time in a hot maiden, the winner Tawajeed went on to run in the Racing Post Trophy (Stoute horse). Looks steadily progressive and this switch to polytrack and a lower class of rivals means he should run a very big race. Noseda has put the visor on him for the first time but I wouldn’t be worried about that and if anything it will sharpen him up. The most experienced and battle hardened horse in the line up, been off for 81 days and may be capable of much better this evening. Tom Queally riding any horse is always a positive. Horse has the best form in the field.
BARONS COURT – Mark Johnston runner, made a satisfactory debut at Southwells fibresand over 7 furlongs. He was slowly away and looked green. A slow start at Southwell is usually bad news but he finished the race really well and was only beaten 2 ½ lengths into 4th at the end of the race. Stables runners always improve for the run and this must have a big chance today in this grade and is likely to be better suited to the polytrack than fibresand. He has the 2nd best form in the race but has plenty of scope for improvement. Likely to run a very big race and could be hard to pass. Appears quietly fancied this evening.
MOOSLEY – Peter Chapple Hyam 2yo. The fact this is odds on means it must be fancied, you don’t need stable information to tell you this. The stable are 0-5 in December this year and didn’t have a winner in December last year (They also had a blank December in 2004). The stable had a short priced 5/4 favourite unplaced in a Wolverhampton maiden on the 13th of this month. Stables runners usually improve for the run and there has to be a fair chance that he will run green this evening and need this race.
Overview – This race looks to be between the first 3 in the market. Obviously Moosley appears to be fancied but at the price, I wouldn’t touch the cretin with counterfeit. That doesn’t mean I want to lay it though either as it may go and win by half the track. I feel the best course of action for this race is to go for one of my 25/75 © bets and it comes down to either Spice Trade or Barons Court. There is a fair chance that they will finish 1st and 2nd so I feel it is worth going for one of them. Barons Court impressed me on his debut after a slow start and I feel this switch to polytrack will suit. A Mark Johnston horse ‘Legion D Honneur’ finished a short head in front of Spice Trade in a maiden last time. So Mark Johnston has the perfect form line to Spice Trade and the fact that there is some stable confidence behind Barons Court this evening is pushing me towards that horse. I think Barons Court gives us an excellent chance of landing the 75% place part of our bet at the very least and a very good chance of landing the 25% win part so that is the reason for my selection. Obviously if we only get a place it’s not a great return on investment but it is a profit for a relatively solid bet. As always it is the win I am looking for and we may well get it with this delightful specimen.
The Brigs advised bet: - 25/75 © = BARONS COURT @ 4.5 & 1.78
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,250610,00.html
A dissapointing race that left me wishing I had chosen to lay the odds on favourite. We got the value on Barons Court at 4.5 and 1.78 as it was heavily gambled on pre race and clearly fancied by connections. Could only get 4th place though unfortunately. He did finish in front of Spice Trade which I believed would be enough to guarantee a place at worst. Although I could make no case whatsoever for the winner, someone obviously fancied it as it was hammered in on Betfair before the off and 20k was waiting to back it at 70.0 so someone landed a very nice Christmas coup but it wasnt us on this occasion.
PRINCESS ZHUKOVA – Stable have never had a 2yo winner, never mind a 2yo debutant. Outsider of the field and nothing at all to suggest this filly will run well today. Impossible to fancy.
FADHB AR BITH – Stable have had just one 2yo winner in the last 4 years and that was in September 2006. Trainer is 0-5 with Wolverhampton runners. Stable haven’t had a winner since September and are out of form. Impossible to fancy.
BENEDICT SPIRIT – Out of the 3 outsiders this one has clearly the best chance of the 3. It made a fair debut on good-sft ground at Redcar back in September but has been off track since. Most stable runners improve for the run but this is a tough maiden and there doesent appear to be any stable confidence behind this tonight and it looks the type do better when handicapping.
SPICE TRADE – Trainer Jeremy Noseda has an outrageous record with 2yo’s at this track. In the last 5 years he has had 7 runners and 5 of them won (71% Strike Rate). Any 2yo he sends here has to be taken seriously regardless of previous form. Trainer has had 2 runners in the last 2 weeks with one of them winning (50%). Still a maiden after 3 turf runs. Was 4th last time in a hot maiden, the winner Tawajeed went on to run in the Racing Post Trophy (Stoute horse). Looks steadily progressive and this switch to polytrack and a lower class of rivals means he should run a very big race. Noseda has put the visor on him for the first time but I wouldn’t be worried about that and if anything it will sharpen him up. The most experienced and battle hardened horse in the line up, been off for 81 days and may be capable of much better this evening. Tom Queally riding any horse is always a positive. Horse has the best form in the field.
BARONS COURT – Mark Johnston runner, made a satisfactory debut at Southwells fibresand over 7 furlongs. He was slowly away and looked green. A slow start at Southwell is usually bad news but he finished the race really well and was only beaten 2 ½ lengths into 4th at the end of the race. Stables runners always improve for the run and this must have a big chance today in this grade and is likely to be better suited to the polytrack than fibresand. He has the 2nd best form in the race but has plenty of scope for improvement. Likely to run a very big race and could be hard to pass. Appears quietly fancied this evening.
MOOSLEY – Peter Chapple Hyam 2yo. The fact this is odds on means it must be fancied, you don’t need stable information to tell you this. The stable are 0-5 in December this year and didn’t have a winner in December last year (They also had a blank December in 2004). The stable had a short priced 5/4 favourite unplaced in a Wolverhampton maiden on the 13th of this month. Stables runners usually improve for the run and there has to be a fair chance that he will run green this evening and need this race.
Overview – This race looks to be between the first 3 in the market. Obviously Moosley appears to be fancied but at the price, I wouldn’t touch the cretin with counterfeit. That doesn’t mean I want to lay it though either as it may go and win by half the track. I feel the best course of action for this race is to go for one of my 25/75 © bets and it comes down to either Spice Trade or Barons Court. There is a fair chance that they will finish 1st and 2nd so I feel it is worth going for one of them. Barons Court impressed me on his debut after a slow start and I feel this switch to polytrack will suit. A Mark Johnston horse ‘Legion D Honneur’ finished a short head in front of Spice Trade in a maiden last time. So Mark Johnston has the perfect form line to Spice Trade and the fact that there is some stable confidence behind Barons Court this evening is pushing me towards that horse. I think Barons Court gives us an excellent chance of landing the 75% place part of our bet at the very least and a very good chance of landing the 25% win part so that is the reason for my selection. Obviously if we only get a place it’s not a great return on investment but it is a profit for a relatively solid bet. As always it is the win I am looking for and we may well get it with this delightful specimen.
The Brigs advised bet: - 25/75 © = BARONS COURT @ 4.5 & 1.78
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,250610,00.html
A dissapointing race that left me wishing I had chosen to lay the odds on favourite. We got the value on Barons Court at 4.5 and 1.78 as it was heavily gambled on pre race and clearly fancied by connections. Could only get 4th place though unfortunately. He did finish in front of Spice Trade which I believed would be enough to guarantee a place at worst. Although I could make no case whatsoever for the winner, someone obviously fancied it as it was hammered in on Betfair before the off and 20k was waiting to back it at 70.0 so someone landed a very nice Christmas coup but it wasnt us on this occasion.
The devil in disguise
Today's race is the 1:55 Uttoxeter. I have reviewed each horse for you, so you have the option to make your own decision of the best course of betting action for this race and I of course give my own opinion of the best way to approach the race. I have developed my own unique bet alongside the lay - The 25/75 © - This bet is 25% of your stake on the win and 75% of your stake on the place. :)
1:55 Uttoxeter – Beginners Chase – 2 mile Good-soft
GODS TOKEN (Venetia Willaims – Sam Thomas)
# 5 out of 6 hurdles wins came at right handed tracks.
# Fell on chase debut last time, his confidence may be effected from that fall.
# May not be as good a horse over fences as he was hurdles.
# Last two runs were over 2 mile 5 and 2 mile 4, today’s trip of 2 miles may be on the sharp side for him at this track.
# Had a tough race on first run for 8 months last time, reappearing 15 days later this may come a bit soon and he could bounce and run flat.
# Not won a race since February 2006, 22 months ago.
# In 3 previous runnings of this race, no favourite has won.
# Venetia Williams has had 5 winners in last 14 days, though Sam Thomas didn’t ride any of those winners and has been unplaced on all 4 rides for Williams in this time period.
# In his last 4 career wins, he was a front runner, with Glinton in the line up he could be involved in a battle for the lead which could set the race up for a finisher. If he doesn’t lead then he may not be as good and could get caught flat footed and outpaced over this trip when the field quickens at the business end.
OCEANOS DES OBEAUX – Has some decent hurdles form against top opposition such as highly progressive stable mate ‘Ring The Boss’. Making chase debut for Phillip Hobbs stable today. Trainers runners are always dangerous in these types of event. Should be at full fitness today on 3rd run of season. Best hurdles from came on good-sft. Uttoxeters galloping track will suit. Hurdles win came over 2 mile 3 furlongs and today’s trip is likely to be on the sharp side. Trainer only 4-31 with chasers here. Phillip Hobbs runners always respected but may be outpaced today and has to prove his ability to jump fences.
OLMETTO COLOGNES – Half brother to Neptune Colognes. Henrietta Knight is 0-7 with chasers here. Horses career best from was over today’s course and distance over hurdles on good-soft ground so today’s test is ideal. Makes UK chase debut today for chase orientated stable, likely to show improved form over the larger obstacles. He did run twice over fences in France in Spring 2006 where he impressed when 2nd at Auteil. Graham Lee is booked, the only other time he rode the horse he won. Graham Lee has a 24% strike rate over the last 5 years when riding chasers for Knight. Henrietta Knight is 0-7 with chasers here. Must have a very big chance with conditions ideal and the switch to chasing expected to bring improvement. Arguably is ridden by the best jockey in the race. Highly respected and should go very well.
LE BURF – Classy hurdler who ran respectably in the grade 1 supreme novices hurdle at the last Cheltenham festival. Made a couple of minor mistakes but overall it was a very impressive chase debut last time when only beaten 4 ¼ lengths by Nicky Hendersons Boomshakalaka off level weights at Kemptons sharp track. Todays galloping track will suit more than Kempton over this trip and good-soft ground looks ideal. Likely to have improved for that chase debut and should be spot on fitness wise on this 3rd run of the season. With a clear round of jumping this horse could be hard to beat and is potentially a very useful chaser. Likely to race prominent and highly respected.
GLINTON – Is likely to lead. He needed his first run of the season, before finishing 6/12 on Chase debut at Bangor over a trip that stretched his stamina. Ran well last time in a listed handicap hurdle from a mark of 125. This is his 2nd run over fences and he is likely to show improved form on his chase debut down in trip as the 2mile 5 stretched his stamina on his chase debut. Can pull hard but is likely to lead, a lot will depend on how he settles, does have a bit of fight about him when challenged for lead, if Warren Marston can settle him he cant be ruled out of this. Won 3 races in a row over hurdles last year (Nov, Dec, Jan) this is his time of year and the signs were there last time that he is ready to show his best form. Trainer Pam Sly has had a winner this month; this is her first chase runner at Uttoxeter in the last 5 years.
THE THUNDERER – Regressive over hurdles, likely to bounce today, pulled up only previous run over fences last time. Flat based trainer 0-15 with NH runners. Very hard to see running well.
SUPREME LEISURE – Has failed to complete in 5 out of 7 chase races. Never been placed over fences. Been badly out of form all year. Couldn’t fancy this cretin at any price. Total useless horse.
SUPERLICIOUS – In 2 runs over fences for R T Phillips his best run was when he finished last of 5 beaten 78 lengths (was Pulled up when tailed off on the other). Has switched yards to Caroline Bailey, a trainer who couldn’t be in better form at present. Did win a hurdles race last spring in France. Impossible to fancy on chase form although new yard may bring about improvement (can hardly get worse). May need the first run for 190 days and gets a handicap mark after this run. Hard to fancy in this race.
Advised Bets:
THE LAY = GODS TOKEN @ 3.0
THE 25/75 © = LE BURF @ 8.0 & 2.04
THE 25/75 © = OMOLETTO COLOGNES @ 7.4 & 2.06
The Brigs Tissue
LE BEUF – 9/4
OMOLETTO COLOGNES – 9/4
GLINTON – 9/2
OCEANOS DE OBEAUX – 11/2
GODS TOKEN – 8/1
SUPERLICIOUS – 50/1
THE THUNDERER – 100/1
SUPREME LEISURE – 100/1
RESULT = http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,250622,00.html
A satisfying opening shot on my blog. The cretinous imbercile Gods Token was taken care of and was proven to be nothing more than the devil in disguise. The 25/75 on Omoletto Colognes was also profitable with the beautiful specimen filling 3rd place. The 25/75 on Le Burf was a losing bet unfortunately, he fell early and that is NH racing for you. I was confident he would have won if he had stood up but we will never know.
A profitable afternoon all the same. Im working on the Wolverhampton evening card as we speak and will post a bet up if I find something of suitable quality on the internets very best racing blog.
Kind Regards
Godfrey Hoopington-Charles
1:55 Uttoxeter – Beginners Chase – 2 mile Good-soft
GODS TOKEN (Venetia Willaims – Sam Thomas)
# 5 out of 6 hurdles wins came at right handed tracks.
# Fell on chase debut last time, his confidence may be effected from that fall.
# May not be as good a horse over fences as he was hurdles.
# Last two runs were over 2 mile 5 and 2 mile 4, today’s trip of 2 miles may be on the sharp side for him at this track.
# Had a tough race on first run for 8 months last time, reappearing 15 days later this may come a bit soon and he could bounce and run flat.
# Not won a race since February 2006, 22 months ago.
# In 3 previous runnings of this race, no favourite has won.
# Venetia Williams has had 5 winners in last 14 days, though Sam Thomas didn’t ride any of those winners and has been unplaced on all 4 rides for Williams in this time period.
# In his last 4 career wins, he was a front runner, with Glinton in the line up he could be involved in a battle for the lead which could set the race up for a finisher. If he doesn’t lead then he may not be as good and could get caught flat footed and outpaced over this trip when the field quickens at the business end.
OCEANOS DES OBEAUX – Has some decent hurdles form against top opposition such as highly progressive stable mate ‘Ring The Boss’. Making chase debut for Phillip Hobbs stable today. Trainers runners are always dangerous in these types of event. Should be at full fitness today on 3rd run of season. Best hurdles from came on good-sft. Uttoxeters galloping track will suit. Hurdles win came over 2 mile 3 furlongs and today’s trip is likely to be on the sharp side. Trainer only 4-31 with chasers here. Phillip Hobbs runners always respected but may be outpaced today and has to prove his ability to jump fences.
OLMETTO COLOGNES – Half brother to Neptune Colognes. Henrietta Knight is 0-7 with chasers here. Horses career best from was over today’s course and distance over hurdles on good-soft ground so today’s test is ideal. Makes UK chase debut today for chase orientated stable, likely to show improved form over the larger obstacles. He did run twice over fences in France in Spring 2006 where he impressed when 2nd at Auteil. Graham Lee is booked, the only other time he rode the horse he won. Graham Lee has a 24% strike rate over the last 5 years when riding chasers for Knight. Henrietta Knight is 0-7 with chasers here. Must have a very big chance with conditions ideal and the switch to chasing expected to bring improvement. Arguably is ridden by the best jockey in the race. Highly respected and should go very well.
LE BURF – Classy hurdler who ran respectably in the grade 1 supreme novices hurdle at the last Cheltenham festival. Made a couple of minor mistakes but overall it was a very impressive chase debut last time when only beaten 4 ¼ lengths by Nicky Hendersons Boomshakalaka off level weights at Kemptons sharp track. Todays galloping track will suit more than Kempton over this trip and good-soft ground looks ideal. Likely to have improved for that chase debut and should be spot on fitness wise on this 3rd run of the season. With a clear round of jumping this horse could be hard to beat and is potentially a very useful chaser. Likely to race prominent and highly respected.
GLINTON – Is likely to lead. He needed his first run of the season, before finishing 6/12 on Chase debut at Bangor over a trip that stretched his stamina. Ran well last time in a listed handicap hurdle from a mark of 125. This is his 2nd run over fences and he is likely to show improved form on his chase debut down in trip as the 2mile 5 stretched his stamina on his chase debut. Can pull hard but is likely to lead, a lot will depend on how he settles, does have a bit of fight about him when challenged for lead, if Warren Marston can settle him he cant be ruled out of this. Won 3 races in a row over hurdles last year (Nov, Dec, Jan) this is his time of year and the signs were there last time that he is ready to show his best form. Trainer Pam Sly has had a winner this month; this is her first chase runner at Uttoxeter in the last 5 years.
THE THUNDERER – Regressive over hurdles, likely to bounce today, pulled up only previous run over fences last time. Flat based trainer 0-15 with NH runners. Very hard to see running well.
SUPREME LEISURE – Has failed to complete in 5 out of 7 chase races. Never been placed over fences. Been badly out of form all year. Couldn’t fancy this cretin at any price. Total useless horse.
SUPERLICIOUS – In 2 runs over fences for R T Phillips his best run was when he finished last of 5 beaten 78 lengths (was Pulled up when tailed off on the other). Has switched yards to Caroline Bailey, a trainer who couldn’t be in better form at present. Did win a hurdles race last spring in France. Impossible to fancy on chase form although new yard may bring about improvement (can hardly get worse). May need the first run for 190 days and gets a handicap mark after this run. Hard to fancy in this race.
Advised Bets:
THE LAY = GODS TOKEN @ 3.0
THE 25/75 © = LE BURF @ 8.0 & 2.04
THE 25/75 © = OMOLETTO COLOGNES @ 7.4 & 2.06
The Brigs Tissue
LE BEUF – 9/4
OMOLETTO COLOGNES – 9/4
GLINTON – 9/2
OCEANOS DE OBEAUX – 11/2
GODS TOKEN – 8/1
SUPERLICIOUS – 50/1
THE THUNDERER – 100/1
SUPREME LEISURE – 100/1
RESULT = http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,250622,00.html
A satisfying opening shot on my blog. The cretinous imbercile Gods Token was taken care of and was proven to be nothing more than the devil in disguise. The 25/75 on Omoletto Colognes was also profitable with the beautiful specimen filling 3rd place. The 25/75 on Le Burf was a losing bet unfortunately, he fell early and that is NH racing for you. I was confident he would have won if he had stood up but we will never know.
A profitable afternoon all the same. Im working on the Wolverhampton evening card as we speak and will post a bet up if I find something of suitable quality on the internets very best racing blog.
Kind Regards
Godfrey Hoopington-Charles
Thursday 20 December 2007
Welcome to my blog
My name is Godfrey Hoopington-Charles, I am a man of high social standing and class.
Many of you will know me from when I used to write on the 'Betting.Betfair' website. The cretinous imberciles who run the website decided that I should be retired. The Brigadier decides when he will retire not some jumped up charlatans in suits. I can honestly say I have never been so insulted in my entire life.
I will be posting up the days best lay with full reasoning on my very own blog. The lay will appear by no later than 12:00pm on the day of the race or by 6pm for any evening racing cards.
Unfortunately on the other blog I was made to send the bet in by 6pm the previous night. Half the time the Racing Post forecasts were not even done by this time and I had no way of knowing which horses were going to be truely short (Timeform and Sporting lifes forecasts were regulary unaccurate). By posting the lay on the day of the race, this will ensure the quality is of a higher standard than previously witnessed.
Time will tell whether the Betfair boys were right to retire me to the realms of history, let me assure all readers The Brigadier is a man on a mission and has a point to prove.
Many of you will know me from when I used to write on the 'Betting.Betfair' website. The cretinous imberciles who run the website decided that I should be retired. The Brigadier decides when he will retire not some jumped up charlatans in suits. I can honestly say I have never been so insulted in my entire life.
I will be posting up the days best lay with full reasoning on my very own blog. The lay will appear by no later than 12:00pm on the day of the race or by 6pm for any evening racing cards.
Unfortunately on the other blog I was made to send the bet in by 6pm the previous night. Half the time the Racing Post forecasts were not even done by this time and I had no way of knowing which horses were going to be truely short (Timeform and Sporting lifes forecasts were regulary unaccurate). By posting the lay on the day of the race, this will ensure the quality is of a higher standard than previously witnessed.
Time will tell whether the Betfair boys were right to retire me to the realms of history, let me assure all readers The Brigadier is a man on a mission and has a point to prove.
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