DUNMORE DODGER – Makes his racecourse debut this evening. Has a decent staying pedigree but is likely to find this 5f much too sharp on his debut run. Should be outpaced and would be a surprised if he was ready to win this evening.
CARNIVAL DREAM – Best form has come over 7f. Dropped down to 5f for the 1st time last time on Southwells heavier fibresand surface (would seem like further than 5f), the form behind Weet A Surprise when receiving lumps of weight leaves her with a lot to find with both ‘A Wish For You’ and ‘Wreningham’. I don’t fancy her at all this evening and will be very surprised were she to win. This is likely to come too soon for her as well just 2 days after her last race.
BAHAMIAN LAD – Best form is over 6 furlongs and looks as though a step up in trip is what he wants. Dropping down to 5 furlongs he is likely to be outpaced in this race. Dean McKeown has the worst record of any jockey riding for W M Brisbourne in 2007 with 7 rides and 7 defeats. Should be outpaced and jockey booking does not inspire confidence. Has the highest OR but that mark looks to flatter him and I cant fancy him over this trip.
A WISH FOR YOU – Has a clear form chance and understandable why she has been made the favourite. However she is a filly against colts and at around about EVS money looks underpriced. She has had 11 races and is the most raced horse in the field yet remains a maiden. She ran her best race last time on the Fibresand at Southwell and may be better suited to the slower surface. Still has a good form chance in this race and should be hard to keep out of the first 2. Jockey James O Reilly has a great record for the trainer although he is 0-4 on the trainers 2yo’s. Definite chance but underpriced.
WRENINGHAM – Career best form came over this C&D 2 runs ago. Ran a bit below form last time but likely that Lingfield didn’t suit. Had 8 runs but appears to still be progressing. Beat the favourite ‘A Wish For You’ over C&D 2 runs ago. The fav is better off at the weights this evening but Wreningham may well have more in hand than the distance he won by suggests as ‘A Wish For You’ tried to make all and Wreningham was produced to swoop past in the final furlong and only just missed out on the win. His last 5 races have been in handicap company where he has been running respectably and this is the first time he drops back to easier maiden company since his 1st 3 career runs. Should be the favourite as far as Im concerned and must have an outstanding chance of being in the first 2 this evening.
Overview:
The race looks to lie between Wreningham and A Wish For You, I cant fancy any of the other 3 runners in this race. I am siding with the gelding over the filly and Wreningham has already beaten A Wish For You once over C&D and has more scope for improvement. At the current prices there is only one bet for me and that is a 50/50 win and place back of Wreningham who must have an outstanding chance of landing the bet at what currently looks a very generous price.
Advised bet:
50% Win and 50% Place – WRENINGHAM @ 6.2 & 2.5
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251235,00.html
Not the result I was looking for.
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9:00 Wolverhampton – Classified Stakes (Class 6) 1m 141yds Standard
BECK (W M Brisbourne – Duran Fentiman)
# Only ran 2 days ago, this may come too soon for him.
# This is his 7th race in just 32 days, the busy schedule has to catch up with him sooner or later. He is only a 3yo and could do with a break Mr Brisbourne.
# Brisbourne has 3 runners in this race. Out of the three jockeys who are riding for him this evening Duran Fentiman is at the bottom of the pecking order having had just 1 winner for the stable in 2007 and just 2 winners in the last 5 years for the stable.
# Horse has won just one race in 18 career runs.
# Was beaten by a horse OR 47 last time, his current OR of 53 looks to flatter him and at least 2 or 3 rivals look to hold better claims on OR.
ZABEEL HOUSE – The classiest horse in the race. As a 2yo he ran in a group 2 and was only beaten 7 lengths by Aiden O’Briens Horatio Nelson. He obviously isn’t up to that level these days but his best recent form is good enough to win this race. He has excuses for his last 2 runs – 1st time Visor didn’t suit last time at R/H Kempton and 1 ½ mile was too far for him the time before. The race before that he ran well in a C&D handicap and that piece of form makes him the horse to beat this evening. This is his first time running at this level and he could be hard to beat. He can go well fresh so the 61 days off track is not a worry and he has changed yards since his last run, new surroundings can often make a horse improve.
MORBRICK – Has only had 6 runs and is still open to improvement. Ran his best race of his career last time on his polytrack debut over C&D when beaten by the progressive Confidentiality. This is his first race at this level and appears to be the best of Brisbournes 3 runners. Likely to go well.
WINGED FARASI – Ran well below form last time but that was on the Southwell Fibresand so he can be excused that run. His career best run came the only time he raced over this C&D in March this year. If he can run anywhere near the form he showed on the C&D run then he has a big chance this evening. He looks to have the beating of Beck.
MAIDEN INVESTOR – Won over C&D last time with a career best run. Has a tendency to miss the break but has scope for improvement having had just 7 runs and if she can break well then she can get involved in this race.
THEATRE ROYAL – Won a Kempton handicap over 10f 4 runs ago but has ran below form in her last 3 races. Has the form in the book to run well in this race but her stable is out of form at present so couldn’t guarantee she will run well, though dangerous if she does spark back into form which is possible.
BLACKBURY – Another one of Brisbournes runners, hard to fancy on form but interesting that Liam Jones (Brisbournes best jockey of the 3) rides this one. Is entered in a handicap on Jan 3rd, so maybe the stable have confidence that she can win this evening. As I said on form I cant make a case for her but definitely not out of the question that she could win this race this evening.
SKY CHART – Ran a fair race when 8th on handicap debut last time at Catterick (Beaten just over 6 lengths. That was over 1 ½ mile and she raced as though this drop in trip would suit. Is the best off at the weights on Official ratings and could go very well in 1st time cheekpieces on her polytrack debut.
Overview:
It’s a competitive claimer and the favourite Beck looks to be underpriced. There looks to be plenty of horses in this race who are capable of beating Beck and we only need one of them to do it. Zabeel House stands out as the best E/W bet for me at 7/1 but my advice is the lay of the horrendous rogue ‘Beck’.
Advised Bet:
LAY – BECK @ 2.3
RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251240,00.html
A very pleasing result to end the day with. Beck was unplaced, Morbrick was the best of the 3 Brisbourne runners, Winged Farasi ran a big race in 3rd and Zabeel House hacked up. Dont you just love it when a plan comes together.
1 comment:
Some great calls today Godders old boy. Keep up the good work as it is much appreciated.
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