Baron Sensational

20:25 Wolverhampton – Class 5 Maiden Stakes (2yo)

PRINCESS ZHUKOVA – Stable have never had a 2yo winner, never mind a 2yo debutant. Outsider of the field and nothing at all to suggest this filly will run well today. Impossible to fancy.

FADHB AR BITH – Stable have had just one 2yo winner in the last 4 years and that was in September 2006. Trainer is 0-5 with Wolverhampton runners. Stable haven’t had a winner since September and are out of form. Impossible to fancy.

BENEDICT SPIRIT – Out of the 3 outsiders this one has clearly the best chance of the 3. It made a fair debut on good-sft ground at Redcar back in September but has been off track since. Most stable runners improve for the run but this is a tough maiden and there doesent appear to be any stable confidence behind this tonight and it looks the type do better when handicapping.

SPICE TRADE – Trainer Jeremy Noseda has an outrageous record with 2yo’s at this track. In the last 5 years he has had 7 runners and 5 of them won (71% Strike Rate). Any 2yo he sends here has to be taken seriously regardless of previous form. Trainer has had 2 runners in the last 2 weeks with one of them winning (50%). Still a maiden after 3 turf runs. Was 4th last time in a hot maiden, the winner Tawajeed went on to run in the Racing Post Trophy (Stoute horse). Looks steadily progressive and this switch to polytrack and a lower class of rivals means he should run a very big race. Noseda has put the visor on him for the first time but I wouldn’t be worried about that and if anything it will sharpen him up. The most experienced and battle hardened horse in the line up, been off for 81 days and may be capable of much better this evening. Tom Queally riding any horse is always a positive. Horse has the best form in the field.

BARONS COURT – Mark Johnston runner, made a satisfactory debut at Southwells fibresand over 7 furlongs. He was slowly away and looked green. A slow start at Southwell is usually bad news but he finished the race really well and was only beaten 2 ½ lengths into 4th at the end of the race. Stables runners always improve for the run and this must have a big chance today in this grade and is likely to be better suited to the polytrack than fibresand. He has the 2nd best form in the race but has plenty of scope for improvement. Likely to run a very big race and could be hard to pass. Appears quietly fancied this evening.

MOOSLEY – Peter Chapple Hyam 2yo. The fact this is odds on means it must be fancied, you don’t need stable information to tell you this. The stable are 0-5 in December this year and didn’t have a winner in December last year (They also had a blank December in 2004). The stable had a short priced 5/4 favourite unplaced in a Wolverhampton maiden on the 13th of this month. Stables runners usually improve for the run and there has to be a fair chance that he will run green this evening and need this race.

Overview – This race looks to be between the first 3 in the market. Obviously Moosley appears to be fancied but at the price, I wouldn’t touch the cretin with counterfeit. That doesn’t mean I want to lay it though either as it may go and win by half the track. I feel the best course of action for this race is to go for one of my 25/75 © bets and it comes down to either Spice Trade or Barons Court. There is a fair chance that they will finish 1st and 2nd so I feel it is worth going for one of them. Barons Court impressed me on his debut after a slow start and I feel this switch to polytrack will suit. A Mark Johnston horse ‘Legion D Honneur’ finished a short head in front of Spice Trade in a maiden last time. So Mark Johnston has the perfect form line to Spice Trade and the fact that there is some stable confidence behind Barons Court this evening is pushing me towards that horse. I think Barons Court gives us an excellent chance of landing the 75% place part of our bet at the very least and a very good chance of landing the 25% win part so that is the reason for my selection. Obviously if we only get a place it’s not a great return on investment but it is a profit for a relatively solid bet. As always it is the win I am looking for and we may well get it with this delightful specimen.

The Brigs advised bet: - 25/75 © = BARONS COURT @ 4.5 & 1.78

Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,250610,00.html

A dissapointing race that left me wishing I had chosen to lay the odds on favourite. We got the value on Barons Court at 4.5 and 1.78 as it was heavily gambled on pre race and clearly fancied by connections. Could only get 4th place though unfortunately. He did finish in front of Spice Trade which I believed would be enough to guarantee a place at worst. Although I could make no case whatsoever for the winner, someone obviously fancied it as it was hammered in on Betfair before the off and 20k was waiting to back it at 70.0 so someone landed a very nice Christmas coup but it wasnt us on this occasion.