Well Rubbish

12:25 Leapordstown – Handicap Chase (4yo+) 2m 5f Gd-Yld

WELL RUN – (N Meade – E M Butterly)
# Off track for 8 months before recent reappearance, given just 7 days to recover he could bounce and run below form today.
# Noel Meades last 24 runners have all been beaten (including some short priced favs).
# Noel Meade is one of Irelands top trainers, however his record with chasers at Leapordstown is extremely poor for a trainer of his calibre. Just 2 wins from 50 runners in the last 5 years (4% SR).
# Top jockey Paul Carberry rode last time. 2 l/b claimer E M Butterly takes the ride today. His record at Leapordstown is 0 winners from 5 rides.
# Horse isn’t a very fluent jumper and is prone to making mistakes.
# Horse lacks size and is very small for a chaser.
# 4 l/b penalty today (still leaves him ahead of the handicapper but he may not be seen at his best on this occasion).
# Although fully effective at this trip he will do better when sent over 3mile +.

Overview:
I was struggling to find a quality short priced lay today even though there are plenty of meetings, so I have crossed the Irish sea once more to find a bet. Although this isn’t by any means the strongest lay I have ever come up with, I think its well worth taking this horse on today at the price. The race is a lot more competitive than the market suggests and Noel Meades recent dip in form combined with his awful track record means this is not a horse you would want to back at a short price. Add in the potential bounce factor, the jockey, the horses tendency to make mistakes then at around 6/4 I am happy to be a layer. We have 7 decent horses in opposition today and only need one of them to beat the favourite. Forest Leaves stands out for me as a great E/W bet in this race at 16/1 but my advice is the lay of the cretinous imbercile of a favourite Well Run.

Advised Bet:
LAY – WELL RUN @ 2.5

Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251342,00.html

A good comeback after yesterdays embarrassing affair. Well Run fell which is always a possibility with a horse who isnt a fluent jumper. It ensured that Noel Meades record with chasers at Leapordstown became even worse and landed us the lay. Hard to say how he would have done if he stayed on his feet as he was still in the race at the time but im confident that we would have still got him beaten even if he stayed on his feet when the bounce factor would have kicked in, in the final 2 furlongs. My e/w fancy Forest Leaves at 16/1 came home in 3rd place landing a nice touch for anyone who got on.