Dutched Delight

2:05 Haydock – Novices Handicap Chase (Class 3) 2m 4f Heavy

LIVINGONAKNIFEDGE – Won a class 3 handicap chase at Exeter on seasonal reappearance from a mark of 110. Was then PU on his 2nd run back over 2 mile 7 furlongs from a mark of 116. He was reported to be suffering from breathing problems, but it is possible the run came too soon and he bounced, also the longer trip wouldn’t have suited him. Racing off 116 again today he still looks to be on a winnable mark. He has won 2 races on Heavy ground and relishes these conditions. The trip of 2 ½ mile looks ideal and he has won on a galloping track before. Looks to hold an outstanding chance today as long as he doesn’t suffer from the breathing problems that were reported last time.

SCRIBANO ELLE – Has failed to complete in 5 of his 10 career races, not a horse who can be trusted. His only win over fences came at a sharp track. Won a chase from a mark of 104 and may now be a bit high in the handicap running from 116 today. He did win a bumper on heavy ground on his racecourse debut. His chase win came over 2m 7 and his hurdles win came over 3 m 1 so this trip looks on the sharp side for him today even on this heavy ground. Only raced 3 days ago and this may come too soon for him as he may be a better horse when fresh. Trainer has had just 1 chase winner from 23 runners in the last 5 years at Haydock.

LE ROI ROUGE – Won a chase and 3 hurdles races in France. Was unplaced from a mark of 112 at Carlisle over 2 ½ miles, and also unplaced from a mark of 112 at Wetherby over 2m 7f last time. He is prone to making mistakes and isn’t the most fluent of jumpers. He would probably prefer a longer trip and 2 ½ miles round Haydock is probably not ideal. Trainer Ferdy Murphy is 0 from 20 with his chasers at Haydock over the last 5 years and this horse may not be at his best today as this drop in trip will put more pressure on his jumping. Will relish the ground but not easy to fancy.

BALLABRIGS – Has only had 7 career races and it is unlikely we have seen the best of him yet. He slipped up round the bend at Bangor on his chase debut last time after the 6th fence. He appeared fancied for that race as he opened at 7/1 and was backed into a sp of 11/2. This is his handicap debut today and the mark of 108 may turn out to be quite lenient as he is bred to be a chaser and should improve on his hurdles form. His only run on heavy ground was his career worst run which will put a lot of people off him, however that was his hurdles debut and 1st run for 7 months so it’s likely he needed both the experience and the run. His best hurdles form came on soft ground and a lot of D McCain runners seem to love testing conditions so I don’t expect any problems with the ground today. 2 ½ miles looks his ideal trip and his best form has come on galloping tracks. Trevor Hemmings owns this horse and it is well known that Hemmings likes to have winners at Haydock. Should be at peak fitness for today’s run and likely to run a big race. D McCain has the best Haydock chase record out of any of todays trainers.

JUST FOR MEN – Won a novice handicap chase at Hexham over 2m 5f last time from a mark of 94. He is racing in a proper handicap today from an 8 l/b higher mark. This trip looks too sharp for him on a galloping track as he looks more of a stayer. Although it is only 1f shorter than the trip he won over last time, Hexham is a very testing course, and his previous runs had been over 3m +. M Todhunters record at Haydock is 0 winners from 24 runners. All 15 of Todhunters runners in December have been beaten.

JUNCTIONTWENTYFOUR – In 2 career runs on heavy ground he was beaten a total of 121 lengths. On his only previous run at Haydock he was beaten 67 lengths over this trip on this ground. Only career win came over 3 miles in a novice handicap chase at Lingfield from a mark off 86 on gd-sft. Has been beaten off 96 & 98 in his last two runs so racing off 99 today on heavy ground and 2 ½ miles he is hard to fancy. Trainer NJ Hawke has never had a winner at Haydock (has only had 3 runners to be fair). Inexperienced jockey Kieran Burke has never been given a chase winner by the stable, his record is 0 winners from 35 rides.

Overview:
2 horses really stand out for me in this race and they are the outsider ‘Livingonaknifedge’ and ‘Ballabrigs’. With negatives and questions surrounding all the others then I think we have a great chance of landing todays bet.

Advised bets:
1pnt Win & 1pnt Place – BALLABRIGS @ 6.4 & 3.0
1pnt Win & 1pnt Place – LIVINGONAKNIFEDGE @ 12.0 & 4.4

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251218,00.html

We didn't get the winner today unfortunately, but Ballabrigs did manage to get 2nd place and ensured we got back 75% of our total ammount staked on the race. I pointed out that Trevor Hemmings loves to have winners at Haydock and although Ballabrigs could only get 2nd, Hemmings had 2 winners on the card with Coe and Turpin Green and also had 3 placed horses in 5 of the 6 races. Not a bad days work for Trevor, where as I must try harder in 2008 as I detest being wrong.