Endless Mongrels

3:05 Haydock – Novices Chase (class 3) 2m Good-Soft

ENDLESS POWER – (J Goldie – Richard McGrath)
# Trainers record is 0/8 at Haydock in the last 5 years
# Horse is an Ayr specialist. All 4 career wins came at Ayr (2x hurdles, a chase and a bumper)
# Won an Ayr Handicap chase from OR 115 in November over 2m 4f, was then raced in a novice chase last time as his new chase rating of 124 is too high for him to win off in a handicap.
# Sent over 2 mile last time in the novice chase he was outpaced over the trip by a filly (the runners he beat all needed further as well so the form isn’t as good as it appears). Same trip again today should ensure he is outpaced at the business end and get his OR lowered for future racing.
# Needs 2 ½ mile to show best form.
# 2 career wins on heavy and 2 career wins on soft. The forecast good-soft ground is not what he wants, especially over a trip this short.
# Ran below form all 3 runs on good-soft.
# Ran below form all 6 career runs away from Ayr (12/18 races have been at Ayr)
# He had Donald McCains ‘Jungleland’ behind him last time. McCain has 2 runners in this race and must have a good idea what is required to beat Endless Power.
# Record in novice hurdles & chases is 4 runs and 4 defeats (3 x unplaced). He is a novice with a penalty today.
# Likes to make all, Cromwell Court can front run as well and may battle Endless Power for the lead which will help set the race up for Cromwells stable mate Sunday City who is likely to track the leaders.

CROMWELL COURT – Appears to be McCains second string, likely to be used to fight Endless Power for the early lead which will help set stable mate up for the race. Didn’t look impressive on chase debut and made some jumping errors. Drop back to 2 miles may suit him more than the 2 ½ miles he raced over the last twice and is open to improvement. Hard to fancy but not totally ruled out and a fair outsider to have on our side to beat the favourite.

SUNDAY CITY – Appears to be McCains first string and best chance. Trainer knows what is required to beat Endless Power through a form line with Jungleland. Ran a big race over this C&D in a hurdles handicap off 124 last season. Has won over 2 ½ miles over fences but has the tactical speed also for this minimum trip, so no worries with the drop down in trip. Effective on good-soft. Hurdles rating was 15 l/b higher than Endless Power, racing from level weights today Sunday City should prove to be the better horse especially with the ground and track in favour of Sunday City.

NIKOLA – Has finished 2nd on all 3 chase runs. Isn’t an ungenuine horse though and won 2 of 11 hurdles races and also won twice on the flat. Recieves 6 l/b from both Endless Power and Sunday City. Came last of 19 on only previous course run (hurdles) however that was his 8th race of the season (and last) and he was probably over the top, so no reason why this track wont suit. Won a handicap hurdle from 116 in December last year on his 4th run of the season over 2 miles. This is his 4th run of the season and he clearly likes this time of the year so he could be spot on today. Appears to handle any going. Has raced over 2 ½ miles and 3 miles effectively but both career wins did come over 2mile. Tackling 2 mile for the first time over fences could be what he wants. Trainer only 1/22 with chasers at Haydock. David England has a 31 % strike rate in 2007 on Twiston-Davies chasers and has a useful 3 l/b claim.

OFF SPIN – A very interesting runner for P Webber. He won a bumper on his race course debut in April 05 over 2 miles at Uttoxeter. He was then put away before reappearing in a grade 2 Novice hurdle at Cheltenham when beaten 38 lengths by Boychuck. That was 771 days ago and he hasn’t been see since. This is his chase debut today, but if he was thought to be good enough to go straight into hurdling at Grade 2 level then he must be well thought of. This class 3 novice chase could turn out to be easy pickings for him. Webber is likely to have him well schooled and is certainly capable of getting his horses fit first time up. He is related to Grand National winner Party Politics so is bred to jump fences. Trainer has a 33 % strike rate with chasers at Haydock. Could well need the run and may well need further but possibly a cut above these horses if fully tuned and ready. N/R

DALDINI – Trainer has a 23% strike rate with chasers at Haydock. Horse is Officially rated 4 l/b below Endless Power and is racing off level weights, however Daldini looks capable of winning a handicap from his current mark of 120 where as I don’t think Endless Power will be able to win a handicap from his mark of 124 so by my calculations I have Daldini as the better horse. He is fully effective at today’s trip and looks to be an improving horse over fences. Track, trip and ground will all suit and cant be ruled out of calculations.

Advised Bet:

3 Point LAY – ENDLESS POWER @ 2.88
2 Point PLACE LAY – ENDLESS POWER @ 1.55

Overview:

Endless Power has to be taken on today. The race is unlikely to be run to suit for him as he wont be allowed an uncontested lead in this field. The ground is not in his favour. Everytime he races away from Ayr he gets beat. His official handicap mark flatters him and this trip is much too sharp for him on todays ground. Off Spin is a non runner now but we have 3 solid horses running for us to get the mongrel beaten and Cromwell Court who may be capable of better than he has shown so far. Sunday City is the likeliest winner for me though I cant rule out Daldini or Nikola. I have gone for a lay of Endless Power in both the win and place market (even if he does get 2nd then the bet still shows a good profit and it's a 'Brucie Bonus' if we can get him out of the frame which looks quite achievable.

RESULT = http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,250709,00.html

A satisfactory result as even with Sunday City and Off Spin being non runners Endless Power didn't beat any of his rivals and finished last of four.