Stupid Boys

2:15 Limerick – Handicap Hurdle (4yo +) 2m 5f Heavy

BELLFLOWER BOY – (E McNamara - K T Coleman)
# 4yo carrying top weight against elders
# 11-7 is the most weight he has ever carried.
# Only carried 10-11 and 10-13 for his last two wins.
# Has a 4 l/b penalty today.
# Wins came on good ground and he is unproven on heavy and the youngster should find it tough to give a lot of weight away all round on this going.
# Won over 2 mile 7 last time, dropping down in trip to 2m 5 today.
# Race may come too soon, just 5 days after his last run.
# In the 6 previous running’s of this race no 4yo has won, the winner has been aged between 5 and 8 years old.
# No 4yo has even managed to place in this race.
# K T Coleman replaces Barry Geraghty in the saddle today. The only previous time Coleman rode the horse he was 12/15 beaten 47 lengths.
# K T Colemans record for E McNamara is just 1 win from 20 hurdles rides.
# It was a novice handicap he won last time, this is a proper handicap and tougher.

Overview:
This looks a competitive handicap with 18 runners. Bellflower Boy looks underpriced and we have enough negatives against him to justify laying him in this large field. It looks a very tough race to call the winner but a big priced winner will be no surprise to me. The Irish markets are fairly weak early especially in the place market but it should be trading around 1.3 or shorter in that market pre race. By splitting the bet this way it guarantees a good return as long as its beaten and is a ‘Brucie Bonus’ if we can get it out of the places as well.

Advised Bet: -
3 pnt LAY – BELLFLOWER BOY @ 2.5
2 pnt PLACE LAY – BELLFLOWER BOY @ 1.3

Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251296,00.html

A big disappointment as Bellflower Boy becomes the first lay I have given on my own blog to go and win his race. I was happy with my reasoning for taking the horse on at the price but obviously not happy with the result.

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2:20 Catterick – Novice Chase (Class 3) 2m gd-fm

CEDRUS LIBANI (J Howard Johnson – Dennis O’Regan)
# Novice with a double penalty
# Has won 2/2 races over fences, though it was a 2 horse race he won last time and the form can’t be taken at face value as the pace was only moderate and his only opponent didn’t jump fluently.
# Was OR 118 over hurdles, both Sunday City and Caraman were rated higher in that sphere and are receiving 4 l/b and 10 l/b respectively. Sunisa was rated 115 and is receiving 17 l/b.
# 3 of his 4 career wins came at testing tracks, although he did win at a flat track last time, that was a 2 horse race and the form may be unreliable.
# Unproven on a sharp track
# Career wins, 2 on soft ground, 2 on good ground
# Unraced on ground this fast

SUNDAY CITY - Did win a handicap hurdle at Catterick so no problem with sharp tracks. Was OR 130 over hurdles and did win from a mark of 124 over hurdles. So had a 16 l/b higher hurdles rating than the favourite and also receives 4 l/b from him. Last 2 runs were over 2 ½ miles but does have the pace for the minimum distance so no problem with stepping down in trip. Although he has never won on gd-fm ground he is proven to be effective on this ground.

CARAMAN – Was OR 127 over hurdles (13 l/b higher than favourite) and receives 10 l/b from Cedrus Libani. This is his first time over fences but he may turn out to be better in this discipline than he was over hurdles, a lot will depend on how he jumps, if he is fluent then he must stand a good chance at the weights. He has won at a sharp track before and his best hurdles form came over 2 miles.

SUNISA – Won off OR 104 over hurdles in December last year and was rated as high as 115 in that sphere. Recieves 17 l/b from the favourite. Probably best on a galloping track though does handle a sharp track. Best form has come on a slower surface so has to be a worry the ground will be too fast today. 2 miles is ideal. Chase debut, needs to prove she can jump fences.

CHAMPAGNE ROSSI, DISPOL PETE, JUST POSH – The three outsiders all look out of there depth in this race and no case can be made for any of them. Major shock if one of these three rapscallions were to win this race.

Overview:

The favourite looks well underpriced although it will be no shock if he does win. Caraman looks to have a very good chance in this race as long as he takes to fences (reported to have schooled well), with trip, track and ground looking ideal I think it is worth having one of my patented 25/75 bets on Caraman at very generous odds as the three outsiders look to have no chance, Sunisa isnt at her best on this faster ground, it should mean that if Caraman can finish in front of Sunday City then we should be collecting and it will be a big bonus at a very nice price if we can also beat the favourite which is very possible.

Advised Bet:

25/75 ©- CARAMAN @ 16.0 & 3.55

Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251121,00.html

A bad day was capped off with Caraman only managing to get 3rd place. Again I was happy with the bet as although the favourite won he did not win like a 4/11 shot should win and so was clearly underpriced. As I predicted it came down to a match between Sunday City and Caraman as to which one would prove the danger and although we got the wrong one, In a situation where it basically boiled down to a one on one for the places, we went for the horse priced at 3.55 for a place as opposed to Sunday City who was priced around 1.67, so although we didnt win on this occasion long term we will show a good profit when approaching these types of races.