Pass the donkey on the left hand side

2:40 Warwick – Novice Chase (Class 3) 3m 2f Soft (Heavy in places)

PASS IT ON – (Jonjo o'Neil - A P McCoy)
# All 3 career wins have come at R/H track.
# Record going L/H is – Fell and 3rd.
# Never won on soft ground, beaten all 3 runs on this surface, best on good-sft (did win on heavy)
# Novice with a penalty
# This trip is 3f more than he won over last time
# Not guaranteed to stay.
# He has a tendency to jump to the right. That is why he usually races at a r/h track as he will lose ground at the fences racing this way.
# Jonjo O’Neil has only had 3 winners from 28 runners over fences in the last 5 years at Warwick.
# Stable is not firing and has had just 1 winner from 39 runners in December.
# Horse is underpriced as McCoy is riding.

DINNIE FANAGAN – Best when fresh. Likely to run a big race today. No problem with the trip and relishes a test. Likely to try and make all. Bred to be a chaser so should improve for this switch to fences. 2 best pieces of form including only win came on his seasonal debut so likely to run a big race today. Trainers 3 of last 5 runners have won (all on the a/w flat). Trainer has a 50% strike rate with his chasers here (1/2). Michael Murphy has won on the 3 of his 7 chase rides for this yard (43% SR) and has a useful 7 l/b claim.

ICONOCLAST – Good point to point form. Trip and ground likely to be ideal. Ran well on chase debut when 4th last time. Will be fitter today and will have benefited from the experience. Likely to run a big race.

BEAT THE BOYS – Came 1st, 2nd and 3rd in his last 3 races all in handicaps. Novice with a penalty today but is the most battle hardened horse in the field and this is an easier level than the handicaps he has been racing in. He looks progressive and is in good form. Stays the trip well, has to prove himself on soft but likely to handle it.

GRITTI PALACE – 1st run for 404 days and a lot will depend on how fit he is. On Official hurdle ratings he is the best horse in this race. Ran well on chase debut behind The Reverend when last season. His only win in 10 races came at this track over 3m 1f on soft ground. If he is fit then he should run a big race.

ELBOW LANE – Should improve for chase debut last time. Has a bit to find on figures but with improvement he can run well in this reason. Stays the trip well and no problem with the ground. A lively outsider.

HARRY BLADE – Was 2nd in a hurdles race over 3m 1 f at this track. Would have needed his 1st run of the season last time when pulled up and should go a lot better today. Has to prove he can jump fences and has to prove he is effective on soft ground but if he can jump and handle the ground then he would have a chance.

GENERAL ZHIANG – Has a lot to prove today and hard to fancy.

Overview:
This looks a competitive novice chase. Beat The Boys brings solid handicap form to the table. Iconoclast and Elbow Lane should both improve for there chase debut last time and should go well. Dinnie Flanagan and Harry Blade are interesting chase debutants and Gritti Palace will go well if fit. With the doubts about Pass It On going right handed as well as the step up in trip and poor stable form, laying the McCoy ridden horse with plenty of possible winners on my side should ensure New Years Eve is paid for. At the prices Dinnie Flanagan looks an interesting e/w bet at 12/1.

Advised Bet:
LAY – PASS IT ON @ 2.5

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251428,00.html

Pass It On was unplaced in 4th place, sealing a sucessful final lay of 2007. Dinnie Flanagan looked to have the race sewn up when he fell at the last, Harry Blade and Iconoclast also fell but the lay never looked like winning. Happy New Year and here is to an outstanding 2008.