The devil in disguise

Today's race is the 1:55 Uttoxeter. I have reviewed each horse for you, so you have the option to make your own decision of the best course of betting action for this race and I of course give my own opinion of the best way to approach the race. I have developed my own unique bet alongside the lay - The 25/75 © - This bet is 25% of your stake on the win and 75% of your stake on the place. :)


1:55 Uttoxeter – Beginners Chase – 2 mile Good-soft

GODS TOKEN (Venetia Willaims – Sam Thomas)
# 5 out of 6 hurdles wins came at right handed tracks.
# Fell on chase debut last time, his confidence may be effected from that fall.
# May not be as good a horse over fences as he was hurdles.
# Last two runs were over 2 mile 5 and 2 mile 4, today’s trip of 2 miles may be on the sharp side for him at this track.
# Had a tough race on first run for 8 months last time, reappearing 15 days later this may come a bit soon and he could bounce and run flat.
# Not won a race since February 2006, 22 months ago.
# In 3 previous runnings of this race, no favourite has won.
# Venetia Williams has had 5 winners in last 14 days, though Sam Thomas didn’t ride any of those winners and has been unplaced on all 4 rides for Williams in this time period.
# In his last 4 career wins, he was a front runner, with Glinton in the line up he could be involved in a battle for the lead which could set the race up for a finisher. If he doesn’t lead then he may not be as good and could get caught flat footed and outpaced over this trip when the field quickens at the business end.

OCEANOS DES OBEAUX – Has some decent hurdles form against top opposition such as highly progressive stable mate ‘Ring The Boss’. Making chase debut for Phillip Hobbs stable today. Trainers runners are always dangerous in these types of event. Should be at full fitness today on 3rd run of season. Best hurdles from came on good-sft. Uttoxeters galloping track will suit. Hurdles win came over 2 mile 3 furlongs and today’s trip is likely to be on the sharp side. Trainer only 4-31 with chasers here. Phillip Hobbs runners always respected but may be outpaced today and has to prove his ability to jump fences.

OLMETTO COLOGNES – Half brother to Neptune Colognes. Henrietta Knight is 0-7 with chasers here. Horses career best from was over today’s course and distance over hurdles on good-soft ground so today’s test is ideal. Makes UK chase debut today for chase orientated stable, likely to show improved form over the larger obstacles. He did run twice over fences in France in Spring 2006 where he impressed when 2nd at Auteil. Graham Lee is booked, the only other time he rode the horse he won. Graham Lee has a 24% strike rate over the last 5 years when riding chasers for Knight. Henrietta Knight is 0-7 with chasers here. Must have a very big chance with conditions ideal and the switch to chasing expected to bring improvement. Arguably is ridden by the best jockey in the race. Highly respected and should go very well.

LE BURF – Classy hurdler who ran respectably in the grade 1 supreme novices hurdle at the last Cheltenham festival. Made a couple of minor mistakes but overall it was a very impressive chase debut last time when only beaten 4 ¼ lengths by Nicky Hendersons Boomshakalaka off level weights at Kemptons sharp track. Todays galloping track will suit more than Kempton over this trip and good-soft ground looks ideal. Likely to have improved for that chase debut and should be spot on fitness wise on this 3rd run of the season. With a clear round of jumping this horse could be hard to beat and is potentially a very useful chaser. Likely to race prominent and highly respected.

GLINTON – Is likely to lead. He needed his first run of the season, before finishing 6/12 on Chase debut at Bangor over a trip that stretched his stamina. Ran well last time in a listed handicap hurdle from a mark of 125. This is his 2nd run over fences and he is likely to show improved form on his chase debut down in trip as the 2mile 5 stretched his stamina on his chase debut. Can pull hard but is likely to lead, a lot will depend on how he settles, does have a bit of fight about him when challenged for lead, if Warren Marston can settle him he cant be ruled out of this. Won 3 races in a row over hurdles last year (Nov, Dec, Jan) this is his time of year and the signs were there last time that he is ready to show his best form. Trainer Pam Sly has had a winner this month; this is her first chase runner at Uttoxeter in the last 5 years.

THE THUNDERER – Regressive over hurdles, likely to bounce today, pulled up only previous run over fences last time. Flat based trainer 0-15 with NH runners. Very hard to see running well.

SUPREME LEISURE – Has failed to complete in 5 out of 7 chase races. Never been placed over fences. Been badly out of form all year. Couldn’t fancy this cretin at any price. Total useless horse.

SUPERLICIOUS – In 2 runs over fences for R T Phillips his best run was when he finished last of 5 beaten 78 lengths (was Pulled up when tailed off on the other). Has switched yards to Caroline Bailey, a trainer who couldn’t be in better form at present. Did win a hurdles race last spring in France. Impossible to fancy on chase form although new yard may bring about improvement (can hardly get worse). May need the first run for 190 days and gets a handicap mark after this run. Hard to fancy in this race.

Advised Bets:

THE LAY = GODS TOKEN @ 3.0
THE 25/75 © = LE BURF @ 8.0 & 2.04
THE 25/75 © = OMOLETTO COLOGNES @ 7.4 & 2.06


The Brigs Tissue

LE BEUF – 9/4
OMOLETTO COLOGNES – 9/4
GLINTON – 9/2
OCEANOS DE OBEAUX – 11/2
GODS TOKEN – 8/1
SUPERLICIOUS – 50/1
THE THUNDERER – 100/1
SUPREME LEISURE – 100/1

RESULT = http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,250622,00.html

A satisfying opening shot on my blog. The cretinous imbercile Gods Token was taken care of and was proven to be nothing more than the devil in disguise. The 25/75 on Omoletto Colognes was also profitable with the beautiful specimen filling 3rd place. The 25/75 on Le Burf was a losing bet unfortunately, he fell early and that is NH racing for you. I was confident he would have won if he had stood up but we will never know.
A profitable afternoon all the same. Im working on the Wolverhampton evening card as we speak and will post a bet up if I find something of suitable quality on the internets very best racing blog.

Kind Regards

Godfrey Hoopington-Charles