3:50 race write up (advised bet below)

Almost forgot I did a little write up for this race earlier this morning.



3:50 Musselburgh

HALLA SAN – Won a novice hurdle last time over course and distance on good to soft ground. Is taking on battle hardened handicappers for the first time today. Has an official rating of 108. Fahey stable have had just 1 winner from 29 NH runners since 1st of November. Stable have had 5 runners in the last two weeks, 4 of them were unplaced and they had an 11/8 fav beaten in 2nd. Jockey Padge Whelan has a 6 % strike rate on Faheys hurdlers. Graham Lee rode Halla San for the victory last time.
Horse has a tendency to make mistakes at his hurdles and isn’t fluent. He does have an entry in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham but he looks to be priced very short for a horse on a handicap debut that isn’t a fluent jumper.

FOLK TUNE – Has the form to win this race. Was beaten just over 10 lengths by Wingman in November, Wingman won a grade 3 hurdle last Saturday. Has course and distance form and would be capable of winning from his current mark of 120. Graham Lee has ridden him for 10 of his 11 hurdles race. The only other jockey to ride him over hurdles is Tom Dreaper and he won on him and has a 100% record on the horse. Dreaper is riding again today (Lee injured). He ran in a class 2 handicap last time off this mark of 120 and was only beaten 6 ¾ lengths. He will find it easier back in class 3. Horse isn’t entirely straightforward and can carry his head high and be one pace in a finish. Has the ability to win this race and will almost certainly be involved in the finish.

VALAIN – Charlie Swan won this race in 2003. Valain ran flat last time (no obvious explanation), if you can forgive that run he has a chance in this race. Trainer has had 30 runners in Ireland in 2008 and all 30 have been beaten. Trainer has had 72 runners in the UK since May 2003 and has had just the one winner from those 72 runners. He won a handicap hurdle in Ireland off 88 and has since been beaten off 95,97, 99 and 102. He is racing off 115 for his first UK run and although the translation between Irish and UK handicap marks isn’t straightforward, 115 probably looks a bit high for him especially as he may have gone off the boil judging him on his run last time.

CALCULAITE – Only hurdles win came in a class 4 handicap from 105 last April. All career wins came between the months of April and September. Was last of 4 from 115 last time in this grade and last of 7 the time before in a class 4 novice. He bled from the nose two runs ago and does not look a horse to rely on to show his running. This grade may be slightly above him also. He is unlikely to be up to winning a class 3 handicap off 112 and could do with a drop in grade and the weights. He fell on his only previous course run (was running a good race) from a mark of 104. Trainer has had 11 runners in the last 2 weeks and all 11 were unplaced. All 24 of the trainers runners in 2008 have been beaten.

MASAFI – Won two novice hurdles over C&D in December 2005/ Jan 06. His record in handicap hurdles is 0 wins from 8 runs with 2 places. He has been unplaced in his last 4 course runs in handicap company beaten a total of 110 lengths in those 4 races. Unplaced over course and distance from a mark of 114 on his last two runs. The good ground will suit him today better than the good soft he ran on the last twice and he usually runs a good race on good ground. Couldn’t totally rule out on this better ground but at the same time hard to fancy.

PILCA – Won a class 3 handicap over C&D from a mark of 99 in November 2006. He then ran in tougher company, a listed handicap and 2 x class 2 handicaps. He was beaten 20 lengths on his first run for 9 months off a mark of 113 and then beaten on his 2nd run back from todays mark of 110. Its likely he needed that 1st run back and then bounced on his 2nd run. He is likely to be at peak fitness today and could easily be capable of winning a handicap from this mark of 110. Tom O’Brien is booked to ride him for the first time today. O ‘Brien has a 100% strike rate for this stable (1 winner from 1 previous ride) and looks a significant jockey booking. Both of his UK hurdles wins came on good ground so course, distance and ground are all ideal today.
He was beaten 17 ½ lengths by Folk Tune receiving 1 l/b in November, he is receiving 10 l/b today so is 9 l/b better off. That was Folk Tunes 3rd run of the season so he should have been close to peak fitness, whereas Pilca was making his seasonal reappearance and most likely needed the run. In the same race Stainley beat Pilca 16 lengths, but again Stainley was race fit and Pilca wasn’t, Pilca is also 5 l/b better off with that rival today.

SOUBRIQUET – Only 1 win from 21 career starts came on heavy ground. His best form is on soft and heavy so todays faster ground will not suit him. Looked out of form last time when unplaced on favoured heavy ground off todays mark of 109. Probably needs a drop in grade and in the weights. Unplaced 10th of 15 on only previous hurdles run at this track. Record going R/H in hurdles races is 10th of 15 and 13th of 15. Hard to fancy.

STAINLEY – Been beaten in handicaps from marks of 103 to 105 in his last 4 runs. Races off 105 again today. Won a novice over course and distance in November 2006. Has fair course form and will try and make all. 2 ½ mile trip can be blamed for poor run last time and this trip is more suitable. 5 l/b claimer is booked to ride for the first time today and this horse has an entry in a handicap on the 18th Feb, so its likely he will be trying to win today and running in that handicap under a penalty if successful. Was beaten 1 ½ lengths by Folk Tune in November but is 4 l/b better off with that rival plus the 5 l/b claim. Likely to trade shorter in running and go close.

FILM FESTIVAL – Unplaced in all 5 runs over hurdles. Was a better flat horse but has so far struggled to translate that ability to hurdles. Was well beaten 6th of 13 in a class 4 handicap from a mark of 97 last time and will find this tougher in class 3 from only a 2 l/b lower mark. Stable have had 1 winner from 69 runners over the last few years and that win came back in May 2007. Hard to fancy though flat form means it wouldn’t be the worlds biggest surprise if he did get involved, though that is more unlikely than it is likely.

Overview:
Film Festival, Soubriquet and Calculaite are the first 3 horses I would rule out of winning. I would consider it a surprise result if any of these 3 could win.
I would then place Masafi, Valain and Halla San in the next group. Masafi and Valain couldn’t totally be ruled out with complete confidence but I feel there are enough negatives and questions against them to take them on. Halla San will be a lot of peoples idea of the winner and is an odds on shot with a fancy entry, however his lack of fluency at his hurdles puts me off, along with this being his first experience of racing against battle hardened horses. The mark of 108 looks nothing more than fair (neither harsh or been let in) and I think he is under priced and worth taking on.
I think the key piece of form in this race is the Handicap hurdle over this course and distance on November 20th 2007 involving Folk Tune, Stainley and Pilca. I think that is strong form and all 3 runners hold sound claims in this race, Stainley will try and make all and will almost certainly trade at shorter odds in running and could win this time with the claimer taking off 5 l/b (horse is a straight forward ride and will try and make all), slight worry with Stainley was he ran poorly last time which may be totally excusable and down to the longer trip or he may be running out of form. Folk Tune is dangerous though doesn’t appear to be the most genuine and that could see him getting beat today although I expect him to be there abouts at the finish. Pilca will be overlooked by many but I feel this horse has the best chance today and the jockey booking looks significant. I want to lay the favourite as I feel he is vastly underpriced (though no big shock if he improves and is good enough to win today) and is worth taking on at the price. Pilca and Stainley stand out as being the two e/w bets in the race although Folk Tune is feared and Masafi and Valain are running on our side to get the lay beaten.