Swine alert

7:20 Kempton - 2 Point LAY - MIND ALERT @ 3.2

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252259,00.html

A bad result to end the day as Mind Alert won.

Wiseman Laying?

3:30 Wolverhampton - 2 Point LAY - WISEMANS DIAMOND @ 3.3

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252242,00.html

A good result as Wisemans Diamond was comfortably beaten.

Oliver Shone?

2:10 Kelso – Handicap Chase (Class 4) (5yo+) 2m 1f Heavy


TOPWELL- All form has come on good ground or faster. Only 1 win in 17 career runs. Unproven on heavy and was beaten 55 lengths only previous run on soft. Out of form at the moment and hard to see him running well.

STORMY BEACH – Best form on good and gd-sft. Ran very badly last time beaten 67 lengths from 103. Races off lifetime high mark of 104 today and may struggle. 11-9 is a big weight to be carrying in this ground. Form figures at this track are : 15th of 15, Pulled up and 11th of 17.


CORLANDE – Won over 2m 7f at Market Rasen last time from 96 in a novice handicap on his first run for 10 months last time. He is racing from 101 today and this race may come a bit soon for him. His last 18 runs have been over trips between 2 ½ m and 3m 2f. Dropping down to this trip he should be outpaced and struggle here.


SOMETHING SILVER – Handles heavy ground. Ran over 3m 1f last time when unseating rider when the 5/2 fav. Is effective over this trip and he ran well over a similar trip 2 runs ago. Was beaten 63 lengths on his only previous course run (hurdles). Was beaten 2 ½ lengths by Hollows Mist 2 runs ago, is 2 l/b better with that rival today but not guaranteed to reverse form with him.

MISS PROS – Mare carrying top weight in a handicap. Likes heavy ground and has run well on this surface. Trip and sharp track fine. Has won 2 handicaps from 92 and 101. Races from 106 today and has always found this mark beyond her. She didn’t look in the best of form last time over hurdles.

HOLLOWS MILL – Has won on heavy ground and has run well over todays course and distance before. 98 is the highest mark he has ever won from (Mar 06) and he is running from 98 today. The trainer has had 4 runners in 2008 and none have managed to complete (3 pulled up, 1 fell) and the stable aren’t in form.

PILLAGING PACT – Did win over C&D in 2002 but has been running over trips between 2 1/2m and 3m1f in recent years. Last time he raced over C&D he was well beaten when unseating his rider and he may lack the pace for this. Won last time but always goes well fresh and this is harder from a 5 l/b higher mark and on heavy ground over this trip.

OLIVERJOHN – Did win a novice handicap chase from 102 last January over 2 miles on heavy ground and this is his time of year. Races off 98 today. He ran badly last time on his first run since April 07 in a hurdle when 9/11 from todays mark of 98. He needed his first run back last year though and then won his next two races, so he should run a lot better today back over fences. Will try and front run. Won on heavy, effective over this trip and this is his time of year. Trainer has won with 2 out of 6 runners in handicap chases at the track this season (33%). Trainers in form and has won with 2 of her last 5 runners.

Overview:
This looks a really open handicap and I am against the front two in the market. Oliverjohn looks to have a really good chance today and is a nice price so I have sided with that one and it should be hard to keep him out of the first 3, he should try and make all or race prominent and with a lot of the horses likling longer trips when the pace quickens he is in the right place and some rivals could get caught out. The bet revolves around the two lays and I have: Oliverjohn, Pillaging Pact, Hollows Mill and Miss Pross on my side, all could be given a squeak with Oliverjohn standing out and I also have the two outsiders Stormy Beech and Topwell running for me, we only need one horse to finish in front of the lays and they cant both win.

Advised bet:

3 Point LAY – CORLANDE @ 2.86
2 Point LAY – SOMETHING SILVER @ 3.5
1/2 Point WIN – OLIVERJOHN @ 14.0
1/2 Point WIN- PILLAGING PACT @ 18.0

Moon hound - Too Late Max

Advised bets:

7:20 Wolverhampton - 3 Point LAY - MOON BOUND @ 2.46
- 3 Point PLACE LAY - MOON BOUND @ 1.33

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252180,00.html

A good result as Moon Bound could only manage 3rd of the 6 runners and so I landed both the lay and the place lay.

8:20 Wolverhampton -3 Point LAY - MY MATE MAX @2.66
-3 Point PLACE LAY - MY MATE MAX @ 1.55

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252182,00.html

Another winning bet, My Mate Max just grabbed 2nd but the winner Boomtown won very easily ensuring it was a profitable bet.

Punting Patto's Australian wonder tips -Caulfield Jan 08

A very special guest joins Patto in Melbourne this week, for the latest edition the 40th episode of Punting Patto's Saturday selections.

Sweet Pickled?

3:10 Southwell - Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+) 7f Std

SWEET PICKLE –

# Defied a lifetime high mark to win a 5 runner race last time over 6f
# Raised 3 l/b to a new lifetime high mark today and that should be enough to stop her
# Mare carrying top weight in a handicap
# Only ran 3 days ago and this may come to soon
# The win last time came over 6 furlongs
# Up in trip to 7f today, Not as good at 7f as she is 6f though is effective over trip

Overview:
Sweet Pickle defied a lifetime high mark last time and will have to raise the crossbar to win again today from this new mark. The step up in trip is not ideal and this could come too soon. She is a mare carrying top weight and may struggle to give weight away all round today. Seneschal is not proven on fibresand however he has won on soft turf and appears to be effective on most surfaces so shouldn’t have a problem with fibresand. Tom Queally booked, will try and make all and may prove hard to beat here. Flores Sea was 4th in Sweet Pickles last race after being heavily backed pre race from 12.0 into around 5.0, the step up in trip is more in his favour than the favourite, and he is 2 l/b better off today and he could reverse form here. Cha Cha Cha has only had 7 runs and is open to improvement, she is probably on a very fair mark from 75 today and if she handles the surface she cant be ruled out of winning. It’s a very competitive race and I think Sweet Pickle is underpriced and so must lay her.

Advised Bet:

3 point LAY – SWEET PICKLE @ 2.4

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252177,00.html

A pleasing result once more as the favourite Sweet Pickle was beaten by Flores. Flores was heavily punted on to beat Sweet Pickle just 3 days ago and stepping upto 7f today the outsider of the four made no mistake in getting the better of the mare who ran another great race in 2nd off a lifetime high mark, pulling 8 lengths clear of Cha Cha Cha and Seneschal. Neither of those horses were proven on fibresand and it didnt appear to suit them.

Irish Leg End

3:00 Hereford – Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+) 2m 4f Soft

IRISH LEGEND – (C Roberts - Jack Doyle)
# Has a huge weight of 12-3 on his back
# That is 17 l/b more than he carried for the win last time
# Has never had this much weight on his back and 11-0 Is his highest ever winning weight
# Has a 7 l/b penalty
# Ran below form on only previous run here, in a novice chase, unplaced and beaten 26 lengths so he may well dislike this track
# Won from a mark of 108 last time, has also won off 111 before
# On the 5 occasions he has ran from 113 or higher he has been unplaced (that includes when ridden by this claimer)
# Trainers record at Hereford is just 1 winner from 31 runners (3%)

Overview:

Favourite Irish Legend looks underpriced carrying a huge weight, he has always been beaten from this mark in the past and the 7 l/b penalty should be enough to stop him today. The only time he ran at Hereford he ran below form and the trainer does poorly here so I am happy to be a layer at the price. Mendosino has been very progressive and improved with each run, the handicapper has raised him 16 l/b but don’t rule out this horse of defying it. Magical Quest looks a massive price and can go well a comment that also applies to Take a Mile. Its an 18 runner race and we have plenty of horses running for us and the favourite looks no certainty to win this so my bet is a lay of the fav with a couple of small stake ‘Brucie Bonus’ win bets on two horses who I feel are massively overpriced. As long as the fav is turned over then the bet is a profitable one.

Advised Bet:

2 Point Lay – IRISH LEGEND @ 2.74
¼ Point Win – TAKE A MILE @ 20.0
¼ Point Win – MAGICAL QUEST @ 34.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252194,00.html

Another winning bet as the favourite Irish Legend could only manage 2nd place. The weight told in the end and he was finding it hard going at the business end and could only stay on at the one pace in 2nd.
Not many positives to say about my win selections except that they were consistent (both pulled up when tailed off), but it was a good winning bet and very enjoyable.

Croc of shit

1:30 Hereford - Novice Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+) 2m 4f Soft

CROCODILE ROCK – (Jonjo O'Neil - A P McCoy)
# Carries huge weight of 12-2
# Won a novice hurdle on his hurdles debut last time
# All 3 career wins have come at L/H tracks
# Only time he has raced R/H he was unplaced (bumper) and it was his worst career run (admittedly was his first ever run so cant read too much into it)
# Although the stable is showing signs of returning to form after a bad period a lot of the runners are still running badly
# Top stables are in opposition – P Nicholls, P Hobbs, D Pipe, N Twiston-Davies, D McCain Jnr and Miss H Knight etc. (Knight and Nicholls have both won this race before)
# Novice with a 10 l/b penalty giving weight away all round

Overview:

Crocodile Rock may well be the horse to beat but he looks vastly underpriced carrying such a big weight on his first run for 74 days on this soft ground. Has to prove his effectiveness going R/H and although some stable runners are returning to form, some of Jonjo O’Neils are still running flat and its a case of pay your money and take your chance with this stable at present. Plenty of top stables in opposition.
Cooldine Boy ran a really good race on his hurdles debut and first run since April 06, getting 10 l/b from Crocodile Rock I make him the horse to beat for a stable that does well here. He will improve for that initial run and should be spot on fitness wise today. Anything that Paul Nicholls runs in any race has to be respected and ‘So Now’ cant be left out of calculations as its likely he needed his first run for 14 months last time and should be sharper this time. ‘Petitfour’ and ‘Choumaker’ are also respected in this. In a 16 runner field we have plenty of horses running for us to beat the lay and I think this is more open than the market suggests and at 1.63 the downside isn’t too bad if Crocodile Rock does prove good enough to defy the penalty.

4 Point LAY – CROCODILE ROCK @ 1.6


RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252191,00.html

A satisfying start to Thursday as Crocodile Rock could only manage 2nd. Unbelievably it traded at 1.01 on Betfair in running, whilst it did look like it would probably win at the final fence it never justified being 1.01 so there are some crazy in running punters operating. The weight told in the end and the 12-2 on his back anchored him in the final furlong and saw Petitfour get up to win by a length.

Moment of Hilarity

8:50 Wolverhampton – Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+) 1m 1f 103yds

MOMENT OF CLARITY – ( R C Guest – Krish Gundowry)

# Last 3 races have been in class 6 handicaps
# Up in grade to class 5 this evening
# Won off 52 and 59 (in an apprentice handicap)
# Was then beaten next time off 59 (You don’t get a penalty for winning an apprentice race)
# Is raised in the handicap to a lifetime high mark of 64 this evening should be enough to stop him in this higher grade
# His 3 course runs came on normal polytrack, the surface is riding slow this evening which is not likely to be to his advantage as he always ran below form on turf with cut
# Has the worst draw in stall 6
# He was beaten by Alfie Tupper over C&D last time
# J R Boyle trains Alfie Tupper so knows exactly what it takes to beat the horse, he is running Alonso De Guzman in this.

ALONSO DE GUZMAN – Trainer knows what is required to beat the favourite. This horse has an entry tomorrow and will be looking to win and then turn out quickly under a penalty. Record at Wolverhampton is 3 runs, 2 wins and 1 x 4th place. He is proven on fibresand also so should not be inconvenienced by the track riding slow this evening. He is racing off a mark 5 l/b higher than for his last win (same as fav) however he is a 4yo and has only had 8 runs and is still open to plenty of improvement. Also his record over C&D is 1 run and 1 win (100%).

PRINCE CHARLEMAGNE- Ran well on first run since the end of June last time at Lingfield from todays mark of 73 and was only beaten 1 length. Came back from a similar break at this time of year in 06 and ran a similar race on the 1st run, he improved for that run and rattled up 4 wins in a row starting in the month of January. This is his time of year and he could be ready to strike again. Won from a mark as high as 80 in the past so this evenings mark is very winnable for him. Last time he ran over this C&D he was only beaten 1 ¼ length in a class 4 handicap from 80 so should go very well in this race. Trainers in good form and has already had 5 a/w winners since the 1st of January.

GIVEN A CHOICE – Course winner who is effective over this trip. He ran a poor race 2 runs ago but improved on that form last time in a claimer when 3rd. He was running from marks in the 80’s previously in his career in class 3 and 4 handicaps. He is still up to winning from a mark of 73 in this grade and his only previous run at Wolverhampton resulted in a win so he has a 100% course record (won off 84 in a class 4 handicap here) and the brilliant Tom Queally on board so do not discount a return to form this evening back at this track.

DESERT LEADER – Twice a winner over C&D. Ran really badly when last seen but has been put away for a few months and should be fresher this evening, and no reason why he cant go well. Won here from 74 last January so this is his time of year, on a winnable mark from 67 tonight and has a definite chance here.

KINGS CONFESSION – Has only had 3 runs and makes his handicap debut this evening. Mark of 64 looks quite harsh for first run against battle hardened horses but is obviously open to improvement after just 3 runs. This is his 1st race for 251 days and while he may not be the most obvious winner, at the same time I wouldn’t rule him out totally.

Overview:

This looks a very competitive little handicap and I wouldn’t fully rule out any of the runners. The favourite Moment of Clarity looks very underpriced up in the weights and up in grade so I have to lay him. I have gone for small win bets as a brucie bonus on Desert Leader (due to big price) and Prince Charlemagne who I think holds a big chance in this race and looks the one to beat.

Advised Bet:

2 Point LAY – MOMENT OF CLARITY @ 2.56
¼ Point WIN – DESERT LEADER @ 32.0
¾ Point WIN – PRINCE CHARLEMAGNE @ 4.5

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252108,00.html

A good result to end the day with Moment of Clarity going of 6-5 fav and finishing last of 6 beaten 27 1/2 lengths. Neither of the win selections ever really looked like winning and 7/1 Given a choice beat Alonso de Guzman 7/2 in a 2 horse finish. A good winning end to the evening on the bet.

Swine Bag

1:10 Musselburgh

SUALDA –
# Ran an absolute shocker when last seen on first run for this stable when beaten 50 + lengths in a flat race.
# He was eased when beaten but even accounting for that he looks badly out of form
# Was formerly trained by David Evans, the switch to a lesser stable is not likely to improve him
# Best on good-frm and effective on good. Does not like the ground to be softer so conditions against him today
# Only career jumps win came at a L/H oval track (Worcester)
# All 10 career wins have came between the months of May and September
# Spring/summer horse who does not like this time of year as proved last run
# Stable have only had 1 winner in NH and that was in a chase
# Jockey Brian Hughes is 0-19 with his hurdles rides at Musselburgh in the last 5 years
# Has a tendency to jump to his left and will lose ground at the hurdles racing this way round
# The fact that he is entered in a seller points to the fact he has probably lost a lot of his ability

Overview:

This is a weak seller and Sualda although on best form would be the horse to beat, with the negatives such as the ground, the r/h track, the stable and the horses most recent run then at the current price he simply has to be layed. Marlborough Sound is the best horse in the race and will take the world of beating if retaining any of the ability he posessesed when last seen over 700 days ago. Nevinstown will be suited by this track and can improve on his last 2 hurdles runs at Newcastles testing track. It’s a tough race to find the winner and no horse looks to have a solid chance, however at the prices there is only one bet and that is the lay of the favourite. I have place layed Sualda as well due to the risk being so small at the odds of 1.25, and there is a good chance he will run a stinker and never get involved in this.

Advised Bet:

3 Point LAY – SUALDA @ 2.16
4 Point PLACE LAY – SUALDA @ 1.25

RESULT:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252111,00.html

After a disastrous last couple of days it was essential that I got back on track today and am pleased to report that I did just that. Sualda could only manage 5th place ensuring that the lay at 2.16 and the place lay at 1.25 was landed. The two horses I thought would run well, Marlborough Sound and Nevinstown filled the places with The Weaver running out a nice winner.

Broken Dreams?

3:50 Leicester - Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo +) 2m Soft

HONOURS DREAM - (T R George – P J Brennan)

# Won a weak class 5 novice handicap hurdle from 88 last time at Warwick on soft.
# Up in grade to class 4 in a handicap race (not novice)
# Has a 7 l/b penalty to deal with against better class opponents today
# Won over 2m 3f on sharp l/h track last time
# Drops 3f in trip to 2m on testing r/h track today
# In 3 hurdles races on R/H testing tracks he has been beaten a total of 140 lengths
# Form figures going R/H are:- 10/13, 3/6 and 9/12
# Trainers never had a hurdles winner at Leicester and is 0/4 (although is 3/9 with his chasers here)
# Likes to front run, wont like it if anything takes him on for the lead
# Primitive Academy, Mr Shambles and Blackthorn can all front run so Honours Dream is unlikely to get his own way in front like he did last time
# He was reported to have lost his confidence in his Exeter run at having horses around him so he could easily throw in a poor race here.

Overview:

The favourite Honours Dream looks seriously underpriced in this race with many question marks against him and I have to lay him in this race. I have gone for a half point win bet on both Spinaround and Kilcoe Castle. Spinaround is very well in here on chase ratings, has ran well at Leicester on soft ground before over fences and this trip is ideal. Kilcoe Castle is a very interesting Irish raider and I am led to believe there is some confidence behind him today. I have quite a big personal risk on this bet but am confident I can get Honours Dream beat. As long as he does not win the race the bet produces a profit regardless of whether he places and if my win selections are beaten.

Advised Bet:

3 Point LAY – HONOURS DREAM @ 2.7
3 Point PLACE LAY – HONOURS DREAM @ 1.41
½ Point WIN – SPINAROUND @ 5.2
½ Point WIN - KILCOE CASTLE @9.2

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251980,00.html

Words fail me. An absolute shocker of a day. What more can I say.

Piggy Wiggy?

12:10 Southwell – Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+) 1m 4f Std

THREE BOARS – Bean beaten in 3 of his last 4 runs from marks of 66 (2 of them at Southwell. Last win came 3 runs ago from mark of 60 over 1m 6f and this mark of 68 may be above him now. Did win from a mark of 65 last season though that was over his best trip of 1m 6f. Won over C&D last March from 61 but looks a better horse over further now.

JACKIE KIELY – Was beaten 9 lengths by Three Boars on his last run, that was over 1m 6f and the trip is on the edge of his stamina limits. He is 10 l/b better off with that rival today and racing over his optimum trip. He has an outstanding record at Southwell. In 20 runs here he has won 7 and been placed 7 times. He won here from a mark of 70 last March and is racing from that winning mark again today. Should be able to reverse the form with Three Boars over this trip and on much better terms where.

GLOBAL TRAFFIC – Showed he is effective on fibresand when 3 ¾ lengths 3rd to St Savarin over 11f here on his last flat run in Dec, that was only a claimer but the winner was rated 94 and the 2nd was rated 84 so it was a good run. Last win came from a mark off 60 on heavy ground at Chepstow in July over 12f. Did win a 3yo handicap from a mark of 62 also so is on a winning mark today racing from 62. He sprang into life at this time last year, he racked up a treble on the 4th January, 15th January and the 27th January. This is clearly his time of year and he may well spring back into life today and could win this race. Only 4yo so still open to plenty of improvement.

SUMMER OF SIXTYNINE – Has only had 9 races and is open to improvement. Won over this trip last time in a Wolverhampton maiden. Makes his handicap debut from a realistic mark of 58 today. Is unproven on the surface but in a race full of hold up horses he may get an easy lead and could steal the race from the front if he does handle fibresand.

PUNTA GALERA – Won a turf handicap from 84 in Sep 06. Has been dropping down the handicap mark and is now racing from a lifetime low mark of 63 today. This is first run on fibresand and a lot depends on how he takes to it. Has run well on soft ground in the past so not inconceivable that he will like it. This is his best trip. Ran a really poor race last time though for no apparent reason, if you can forgive him that run and he handles the surface then he cant be ruled out. Does hold an entry in 3 days time.

Overview:

I expect Jackie Kiely to reverse form with Three Boars today over this trip. The fact that Three Boars has been beaten in 3 of last 4 runs from today's higher mark of 68 leads me to think he will be beaten once again from this mark over a trip that is short of his best. I have staked the bet so as long as the lay is beaten we win. Although I do fancy Jackie Kiely and Global Traffic today, I opted for a very small win bet on Punta Galera and Summerofsixtynine purely due to price.

Advised Bet:

2 Point LAY - THREE BOARS @ 3.1
1/4 Point WIN -PUNTA GALERA @ 9.0
1/4 Point WIN - SUMMEROFSIXTYNINE @ 16.0

RESULT: - http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252327,00.html

A bad start to the day as Three Boars wins.

The wonderful wizard?

3:10 Taunton – Handicap Chase (Class 4) (5yo+) 2m 7f 110 yds Soft

TREASULIER – Career record of just 1 win in 27 starts, that was a class 4 novice handicap from a mark of 89 over 3m 2f at Wincanton, the race was awful and was run in a slow time. The horse is seriously one paced. Has been beaten in last 4 handicaps from 96, 91, 91 and 91. He is racing from 91 again today and he will find it hard to win, basically any horse within touching distance of him in the home straight should beat him as he is so slow. Trainer has had just 3 chase winner from 93 runners and the last time the trainer won a race of any description was April 2007 (hurdles).

XINA FONTENAILES – Only one win from 21 starts. Best on good ground or gd-frm, has never raced on soft ground and that is most likely as he wont handle it. Ran on gd-sft 3 times and was unplaced all 3 times. She was 3rd over this C&D last time but after traveling well and looking the winner up the home straight she started treading water and appeared to not quite last home over this trip, she has a huge doubt about staying on today’s soft ground. Best over 2 ½ m – 2m 5f and on good ground.

WIZARD OF EDGE – Finished 2 ½ lengths behind Tresaulier last time at Wincanton. Horse has a good strike rate (in the context of this race) with 6 wins from 25 races over hurdles and fences. His career best form came over this course and distance. Has a great record at Taunton – 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd and 5th. Runs his best races here. Made a mistake 3 out when beaten by Treasulier last time and he is better at today’s trip than the 3m 2f last time. Has won on soft ground before. Should be at full fitness for this 3rd run of the season. Won in Janurary 05 so this is his time of year. Drops to a mark of 103 (just 4 l/b above his last winning mark), has won from a mark of 100 before and did win from 110 over hurdles so will be capable of landing a weak contest like this from today’s mark.

JALOUX DESTRUVAL – Won over hurdles from a mark of 108 so should be up to winning from this chase mark of 93 sooner or later. January is the month to catch this horse, from 7 career runs in Jan he has won 2 and been placed twice. Record on soft ground is 1 win from 12 starts, not his best ground but is effective on it. Was beaten over this C&D last time from today’s mark of 93 (looked the winner, but blew up in the straight). Ridden by a 10 l/b claimer who has won just 1 race from 34 rides over fences although 3 of his career wins did come for today’s trainer.

CARNT SPELL – Ran a career best race last time when winning a class 4 handicap chase off 75 at Huntingdon on gd-sft and put in a clear round of jumping. Did win on soft ground in November 06, though has been unplaced in 8 of 10 career races on the surface. Raised 9 l/b to a mark of 84. Was unplaced the two previous occasions he ran from this mark over fences so may well be in the handicappers grip. Not a very consistent horse and often follows up a good run with a bad run. The two occasions he ran on a sharp track he ran well and finished 2nd both times. Trainer is in form.

Overview:

Xina Fontenailes is a doubtful stayer who wont appreciate the ground so is instantly crossed out. Treasulier is one of the most one paced horses in NH and it would be a major shock for me if he was to win this, im sure the connections would have been shocked when he did actually win a race. Carnt SPell is a very inconsisten horse who should be in the handicappers grip today, this soft ground isnt ideal either even though he did win on a soft surface in the past, he usually runs badly on soft. I think Wizard Of Edge has a solid chance today at his favourite track and should comfortably reverse form with Treasulier and looks the horse to beat. Jaloux Destruval looks to have a big chance in this race after his C&D run last time and the softer ground is in his favour, the outsider of the field must not be ruled out and is capable of winning this race.

Advised Bet:
2 Points Win - WIZARD OF EDGE @ 4.0
1 Point Win - JALOUX DESTRUVAL @ 8.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251915,00.html

A bad result with my selections only managing to get 2nd and 3rd place. I said in my review of Tresaulier that any horse within touching distance in the home straight would beat him as he was so one paced. Unfortunately the jockey on Jaloux Destruval decided not to get anywhere near him in the straight and the lead that was given to Tresaulier was outrageous. No complaints from me though as we backed a horse who was ridden by a 10 l/b claimer. If that was a professional riding then I would have fair claims to complain about the ride, however it was an amateur and we paid our money and took our chances.

Dutched dazzler?

1:20 Southwell – Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+) 6f Std

SWEET PICKLE – Mare carrying top weight in a handicap. Has won 4 times at Southwell, highest winning mark at this track was off 60 in a class 6 handicap. Was 4th last time at Wolverhampton from todays mark of 70. All 12 times in her career she has ran from this mark of 70 she has been unplaced even though she has won from as high as 68 at Wolverhampton. Holds 3 entries over the next few days so should be going for the win.

FLORES SEA – Has only had 10 races and would be open to improvement. Recent form has been poor though. Recent runs have been over longer trips, his 2 career wins did come over 6f in a 2yo maiden and a 3yo handicap. Has never raced on fibresand and has to prove himself on this surface. Was 6th of 7 only run on only run on soft ground (soft ground horses often like fibresand). Can miss the break which is not a good thing to do here and has been held up lately. Trainer does well here and he does hold an entry for another Southwell handicap in 3 days time. Trainers in form and had a winner here on the 1st January. Not easy to fancy but I feel he may have been lined up for this race today and can go very well.

FIGARO FLYER – Has won 5 times on the a/w but they were all on polytrack (4 at Wolverhampton and 1 at Lingfield). Interesting though that his 2 career best runs in terms of form came here on the fibresand when he was 2nd and 3rd. Won in January in 2007. Won a class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton last time from 63 by a head. Raised 4 l/b to 67 today but did win last January from 74. 4 of 5 a/w career wins came in double figure fields (the other was a 9 runner field). Held up for his last 2 wins (has front run in the past as well though). He did win a couple of small field races on turf in his younger days so I wont hold the small field against him.

DASHEENA – Mare, won over 6f on turf as a 2yo at Carlisles stiff track, though all wins since have been over 7f and she is better over that trip. Ran at Southwell over 7f on her last 2 races, she won a class 6 handicap off 60 and then was 2nd last time in a class 6 handicap off 64. She races off a lifetime high mark of 64 today and is up in grade to class 5 and down in trip. Could be outpaced here. Has 2 entries over the next 3 days. Her last 3 wins came in class 6 company (did win a class 5 as a 2yo) and this grade may be above her. All 4 career wins were in double figure fields. Has a tendency to miss the break.

GRAND PALACE – Won over 7f here as a 3yo. Has been in great form lately form figures read – 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd . Was beaten over C&D (2nd) from 55 in a class 6 handicap 3 runs ago. Has since won from 55 at Lingfield in a class 6 and was only beaten a head off 59 last time at Wolves. Races off 62 and that combined with the raise in grade (all wins in class6 and rarely runs outside that grade) should be enough to see him beaten. All 4 career wins came in double figure fields so this small field may be against him.

Overview:

This is a really tricky 5 runner race. The fact that Sweet Pickle has been beaten in all 12 handicaps from today's mark means I cant fancy the mare today. All of Dasheenas wins came in double figure fields, she should be outpaced here and she is a class 6 horse so I cant fancy her today in this. Grand Palace is another who the small field may be against as all wins were in double figure fields. He is a class 6 horse so its hard to fancy him today in this grade and he is rising in the handicap for not winning which puts me off him.
As Sherlock Holmes said "When you have eliminated all of the impossible then whatever remains must be the truth however imponderable".
I am left with Flores Sea and Figaro Flyer and feel we must have a good chance of getting the winner here.

Advised Bet:
1 Point Win - FIGARO FLYER @ 4.5
1 Point Win - FLORES SEA @ 12.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251898,00.html

A bad result for me with Figaro Flyer and Flores Sea finishing 5th and 4th. An absolute avalanche of money was piled on Flores Sea after I posted and the 12.0 was turned into a betfair SP of 5.2, he never really looked like winning though and neither did Figaro Flyer. It was a career best performance by the winner to win off 70 so hats off to her.

Losethorpe

12:50 Southwell – Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+) 6f Std

WINTHORPE – Won a Southwell handicap from a mark of 54, 3 runs ago. Has since been beaten in 2 runs from his new mark of 61 (did win off higher marks, but that was in his younger days as a 3yo). This is his 5th race in just over a month and the busy schedule will catch up with him sooner or later.

STRATHMORE – Ran a career best race last time on his fibresand debut and is still open to improvement at the age of 4. Was beaten a head by today’s favourite ‘Winthorpe’ however he was very slowly away from the break and made a lot of ground up. He is weighted the same with the fav today but with a better break and the promise of improvement to come he can reverse form with that rival. He will be held up again but had no problems with the kickback and it’s interesting that Fahey wants to reoppose Winthorpe and confidence must be high he can turn him over.

BENTLEY – Was beaten 5 ¾ lengths by Winthorpe over C&D in December, however Bentley is 11 l/b better off with that rival today. That was Bentleys first run for 3 ½ months and he would have needed the run to sharpen him up. Bentley was also a 3yo taking on his elders for the first time in his career. He was only beaten a short head last time at Wolverhampton in his 2nd race against his elders and is running back into form. He can reverse form with Winthorpe today and did win off a 10 l/b higher mark last February. He is a course winner and holds 3 entries over the next 4 days.

GUILDERNSTERN – Has been running poorly over the last 6 months and his handicap mark has been dropping accordingly. However he showed signs that he is ready to strike again when only beaten ¾ length by Perlachy at Wolverhampton over 6f. He is easily up to winning a race off this mark of 55, and now that he is coming back into form he could well win and run up a sequence. This is his fibresand debut and he has to prove he can handle the surface though he has won on soft and ran well on gd-sft so there is a decent chance he will handle it.

QUIET TIMES – Been out of form recently and ran a shocker last time. However the last time he ran a race that bad he followed it up with a great run, so he can have off days and I wouldn’t write him off purely down to that run. He is a 6 times course winner and has finished in the top 3 in 9 of 26 races here. 6 of his wins came over this trip and he has twice won in the month of January. He was in form this time last year and no surprise if he springs back to life today. Has been running mainly in claimers recently but on last winters form he could easily win from this mark. I don’t overly fancy him but he is a decent animal to have on our side for our lay.

LUCIUS VERSIUS – A C&D winner who likes it round here. Has been badly out of form lately and handicap mark has been dropping. His last two wins were off 54 and 56 so he could be ready to strike again from today’s mark of 55. Big worry is his recent form though which makes him hard to fancy, although a useful 7 l/b claimer will aide his cause and it isn’t out of the question that he could win this race today. Has an entry in a handicap on the 10th Jan.

ZARZU – Drops to a career low mark of 64 today. Ran badly in November but that was his first run since April and he needed the run. He will be a lot sharper today. Is a fibresand winner and he has won or placed in 7/14 (50%) course runs. He is 11 l/b below his last winning mark and would be well up to exposing this mark. The booking of Tom Queally is interesting for this horse and it would be no surprise if Zarzu were to win today.

Overview:

This looks a really open race and with the favourite having been beaten in his last 2 runs from today's mark I am looking to get him beat. I think both Bentley and Strathmore can reverse recent form with the favourite and I fell that Bentley in particular has a great chance of winning today. I cant rule out any of the runners in this race. The bet is staked so we win as long as the favourite is beaten and we will get a very nice brucie bonus if either Bentley or the massively overpriced Zarzu can this very open looking race. Favourite looks underpriced so I have to take him on.

Advised Bet:

2 Point LAY - WINTHORPE @ 3.2
3/4 Point WIN - BENTLEY @ 6.2
1/4 Point WIN - ZARZU @ 27.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251897,00.html

A good start to the day. Winthorpe only managed to beat one rival home securing a profitable bet for us. Bentley ran a great race and was flying at the finish and just got beaten by a head in the end, a few more yards and he would have won and landed us a nice touch. Zarzu finished in 5th place and did beat the favourite though never looked like he would win, at the price I thought it was worth having a small back of him though.

Smoothly doesn't do it?

3:10 Southwell – Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+) 1m 4f Std

SMOOTHLY DOES IT
# This is 1st race for 368 days and he may need the run
# Won over hurdles at Wetherby when last seen.
# Good chance this run is just being used as a warm up run for hurdling campaign.
# Flat record of 1 win in 30 runs doesn’t inspire confidence
# Beaten all 4 runs on the a/w
# Top weight, gives weight away all round on first run for over a year
# Has always needed his 1st run back after a break in the past
# Ran his worst ever race on his only previous fibresand run over 6f here
# You cant put that run down to the trip as he ran much better the race before and the race after over the same distance. Appeared to hate the surface.
# Jamie Moriaty has an 8% strike rate for Fahey and isn’t the first choice jockey when it comes to landing a Fahey coup
# Unproven over this trip in flat racing
# 10f is the furthest he has raced over on the flat
# This is a tight handicap and he doesn’t stand out at all in this race for me

TIDY – Beaten 20 lengths at this track last time from a 4 l/b higher mark. Finished 12th of 12 on this course back in March 06. Did win a 6f race by default over 6f here way back in 2002 (winner was disqualified). This is the longest trip he has raced over on the flat. Looks badly out of form at present.

NIMELLO – Is a C&D winner. Has won 25% of his A/W races (9 from 36) and has been placed in 5 of the 36 runs. Drops down to a winning mark of 53, won off this mark over C&D in March, has won from much higher marks on a/w in the past. This is his first race for 259 days but he was won when fresh in the past.

PARCHMENT – Won off 51 and 55 on the turf. Has won over this trip. Has never ran on the a/w and has to prove he can handle fibresand. Best form was on fast ground so may not like the surface but claims if he does handle it. Has been running badly and regressing recently and is hard to fancy. Chance the 68 day break may have rekindled his enthusiasm. Hard to fancy but not out of the question

BRIGHT SPARKY – Flat maiden after 6 races, never ran on a/w track. Not raced on the flat since Aug 06 and has been running ok in hurdles races (winning 2 from 11). May be a better horse than he was when he was last seen on the flat and although hard to make a case for, not out of the question that he could run well here of 50 if taking to the surface.

KARMEST – 1 win in 13 starts came over 6f. Has run good races over 11f at Kempton though and should stay. Ran a shocker last time at Lingfield but has ran bad races inbetween good ones before, so would be capable of running much better today. One of his best races came on the only time he raced on the fibresand and his win did come on a soft surface, so he should enjoy the track. As long as he lasts out over this trip then he is on a winnable mark from 50 and cant be ruled out.

ANYTHING ONCE – Maiden after 17 races and has never even been placed in 17 runs. Been badly out of form recently and hard to fancy. Was beaten 11 lengths over 11f here, 2 runs ago from a mark of 50, hard to see him winning today from 47.

ISLAND KING – Been beaten a total of 90 lengths in 5 flat runs. Makes handicap debut today from mark of 45 and hard to see him getting involved as he appears to lack ability. If this wins then it’s a great coup by the stable, on form he has no chance.

BLUE OPAL – Low level horse who’s last 4 flat runs came at banded level. In his favour he loves fibresand and both wins came here over 12f & 11f (banded race and maiden). Form of 12/13 months ago in handicaps would give him a chance in this race from a mark of 45.

INTEREST – Stable does well here and there last runner at the track won. Has shown very little in 4 runs so far, at least has scope for improvement compared to his rivals. Looked regressive when last seen in Feb 07. First run for 334 days. Entered in a seller and a maiden in the coming week hardly inspires confidence in his chances.

PIANO KEY – Maiden after 13 races. Was beaten 14 lengths in a maiden over 11f at this track 2 runs ago.

Overview:

The favourite 'Smoothly Does It' looks vastly underpriced at around 2.7 in this race and I have to lay it at the price. The two likliest winners look to be Nimello and Karmest as far as I am concerned (my preference is Nimello). I have staked the bet so we win as long as the favourite is beaten and it's a brucie bonus if we can land the winner which we have a good chance of doing.

Advised bets:
2pnt LAY - SMOOTHLY DOES IT @ 2.7
1/2pnt WIN - NIMELLO @ 9.2
1/2pnt WIN - KARMEST @ 9.2

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251799,00.html

It is fair to assume that one is pleased with the outcome of this race. The lay of 'Smoothly Does It' was unplaced and never at any point of the race did he look like he would win. My two win bets finished 1st and 2nd which resulted in a profit of 5.6 points on the bet and ensured Sunday was a profitable and enjoyable day. As per usual, I love it when a plan comes together.

Sexy sand stunner?

1:40 Southwell – Selling Stakes (Class 6) (3yo+) 7f Standard

PUT IT ON THE CARD – Well drawn in stall 3. Has finished in the top three on five of her 11 a/w runs. Both of her career wins came on Wolverhampton when the track was riding slow, with one of them over todays trip of 7f. The slow polytrack is more similar to fibresand so she shouldn’t have a problem on this surface and may run one of her best races today. From the period of Jan 12th til April 16th last year she won twice, finished 2nd and 3rd in 4 runs, so this is her time of year, she showed that she is running back into form last time with her best race since February 07 last time. Although only rated 49 does have the form to get involved in this race and a danger to all and looks massively overpriced in this weak race.

NAMROUD – Had his 1st run for 7 ½ months last time over hurdles, this race may come a bit soon 11 days later, he may still need this run his first flat race since April 07 and 2nd run of the season. All 6 career wins have come between the months of April and October. Has never won at this time of year. His best a/w form has been on polytrack and he has been beaten all 3 races here although he handles the surface. Trainer does well with his older horses here and has a 21% s/r in the last 5 years here. Namrouds record when dropped to claiming level is – 3/9, 7/13 and 13th of 15. A/W record is 9 runs and 9 defeats. 5 of his 6 career wins came over 7 ½ to 1mile and he could be a touch outpaced in the finish. Poorly drawn in stall 1 and could easily hit traffic unless he springs out the stalls and tries to make all.

LOUISIADE – Won a class 5 handicap over C&D last March from 58. Ran poorly last time in a seller on first run for almost 10 months. This may come too soon for him 17 days later. Seb Sanders a positive booking today. 5 of his 6 career wins came over this sort of trip. Has won twice from 11 runs on the fibresand and was placed on of 3 of 11 runs here.

DAZZLER MAC – Was 8th of 14 only previous course run. Only 1 career win in 19 runs came at thirsk in August 06 over 6f. Not in the best of form recently, has been unplaced in his last 10 races, a run that stretches back to August 06. He looks regressive, out of form and he may be better over shorter.

STEPASIDE – Unplaced in 7 of 8 runs on the flat before being switched to hurdling and being equally useless. Remains a maiden after 16 career runs. Has been beaten in his last 2 runs at Southwell at selling level. Trainer has had just 1 winner on the a/w from 48 runners in 2007. Lowly OR of 42.

MR CHOCOLATE DROP – Only 1 win from 21 starts. Did win over this C&D when the track was riding slow in Feb 07. Beaten in a class 7 classified event last time. Has been beaten a total of 37 lengths on his last 3 course runs. Unplaced and well beaten in his last 3 races at claiming level. Low grade horse with OR of 42. Trainer 0 from 28 at Southwell in last 5 years. All 37 a/w runners were beaten in 07.

WIZBY – All 3 career wins came between the months of March and June. Hasn’t won a race since June 06. Running badly and was 7th of 7 last time in a claimer over a mile here. Unplaced all 6 runs over 7 furlongs. Lowest OR in field of just 40.

CAPITAL LASS – Been beaten a total of 97 lengths in her last 4 races, all over course and distance in 3 xclass 6 handicaps and a seller. Did win over this C&D at this time last year but had been in better form before hand. Badly out of sorts for a long time now and impossible to fancy.

DIDATIC – Unplaced all 8 flat runs (turf and a/w). Unplaced only previous course run. Career maiden after 10 races. Unplaced 6/17 and 6/15 both runs at seller level. OR 43 and impossible to fancy.

Overview:

This looks a really weak race and there are question marks against most of the runners including the front two in the market. Put It On The Card stands out for me as a horse who could easily win this today. She may have plenty to find on the top two on official ratings, however they could both run flat (though no surprises if one of them win) and are far from solid today. Put It On The Card peaked at this time last year, showed signs she is running back into form, I'm confident she can run a really big race today at a massive price.

Advised Bet:

1 Point Win and 1 Point Place - PUT IT ON THE CARD @ 20.0 & 4.5

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251796,00.html

Put It On The Card ran a really disappointing race and finished in last place. I thought we had a good chance of getting a result with this horse but I couldn't have been more wrong as she ran an absolute stinker. There was a lot of moaning on the betfair forum about morning favourite Namrouds run, but they are pocket talking and it should never have been priced so short in the first place, the drift just meant it went off at a more realistic price and anyone who suggests that was a bent race clearly does not understand racing. A despicable start to Sunday for my selection all the same.

Mr Crapoleon

6:50 Kempton – Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+) 1m 2f Std

MR NAPOLEON – (G L Moore – G Baker)

# Won last two races from marks of 55 and 60
# The wins came in the bottom grade, class 6
# All of his AW UK runs have come in class 6 handicaps or Seller level.
# Up in grade to more competitive class 5 today
# Unplaced 7/17 only previous run in class 5 (turf) from mark of 56
# Up another 6 l/b to a mark of 66 today, should be enough to stop him against this better class of opponents
# Kempton tends to favour prominent runners, and although he did win a class 6 handicap off 55 over C&D, he will find it much tougher coming from behind off 66 in this race.

Rivals of note:

ARENAS DREAM – Won a Hamilton turf maiden 4 runs ago. Has been beaten in 3 A/W handicaps since from today’s mark of 65 (2 of them in this grade) but went close in defeat in 2 of them and the fibresand didn’t suit in the other run. He is a better horse going right handed so Kempton is likely to be his ideal polytrack course. Up to winning off this mark and effective on polytrack.

DINNER DATE – Both career wins came over this course and distance. Won off 52 over C&D 3 runs ago and then was only beaten a short head from a mark of 58 over C&D 2 runs ago. Was 7/12 last time at Lingfield and was only beaten just over 2 lengths from a mark of 60 but he has never ran well at Lingfield and the track doesn’t suit him so it was a good run. Racing from 59 today, he has won a C&D handicap from a mark of 57 before, he should run a big race at his favourite track and will go close. Both wins came in class 6 but he has run respectively in class 4 handicaps before so no problem with the step up in grade.

FATEFUL ATTRACTION – Last two career wins came at Kempton. Won over C&D two races ago from mark of 60. Was beaten 2 lengths from new mark of 66 last time at Lingfield but he is a better horse at Kempton and it suits her prominent style of racing. In form and capable of winning from this mark. Has raced twice over this course and distance and it resulted in an easy win from a mark of 60 and he was beaten a head in 2nd on his other C&D run.

STARK CONTRAST – Won on his polytrack debut at Lingfield from a mark of 62, 3 runs ago, that was a really good performance as he raced prominently and won which is tough to do at that track. Was outclassed in a class 4 handicap next time off 68 but ran a decent race next time off 65. Kempton will suit his prominent style of racing and he looks as though he is up to winning in this grade from todays mark of 64. Remains in form and looks slightly progressive. Should go very well.

BOUNDLESS PROSPECT – Usually races over 1 mile, though on his 2 career runs over this trip he did finish 2nd and 3rd and this trip suits him. Was placed in a class 4 handicap from a mark of 84 in October. Has dropped down the handicap and is being given a decent chance from todays mark of 61. Has never won on polytrack but is fully effective on this surface and handicapper is giving him a big chance this evening in this grade. Is entered in a Southwell handicap on the 10th of Jan so connections look to be trying to win this race and then turn him out in 5 days time under a penalty.

BLU MANARUNA – Ran his worst race in a while when beaten 10 lengths by tonight’s favourite at Lingfield last time. Is 7 l/b better off with that rival now and may have just had an off night on that occasion so can get closer this evening. Career record of just 1 win in 37 races doesn’t inspire confidence though has been placed in 33% of his a/w runs so don’t fully rule out and only career win did come over this trip.

DOUBLE SPECTRE – Both career wins came on the turf from marks of 63 and 64. Has only raced once on the polytrack (Lingfield) but handled the surface. Is on a winning mark this evening from 63. Dane O’Neil is booked this evening and Dane was the jockey who was on board for both of Double Spectres career wins. His best career form has been when racing R/H so Kempton should suit and he can run a big race at a decent price.

Overview:
This looks a very competitive handicap and many runners hold chances. The favourite may struggle from this mark upped in grade and looks to be underpriced. We have plenty of horses on our side to get him beat and we only need one of them to do it, for us to walk away with a profit. I have staked the bet so we win as long as the fav is beaten but it will give us a nice brucie bonus if we can get one of our win bets up as well. Its hard to call the winner and I opted for a small stake win on Stark Contrast and Double Spectre purely due to the generous looking prices on offer.

Advised Bets:
2pnt LAY – MR NAPOLEON @ 2.5
1/4pnt WIN – STARK CONTRAST @ 21.0
1/4pnt WIN – DOUBLE SPECTRE @ 32.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251808,00.html

A satisfactory way to end the day as Napoleon was unplaced in 4th after running into traffic problems as his usual hold up tactics found him meeting trouble in running from a high draw here. Stark Contrast finshed 6th after being heavily backed into an sp of 15/2 and was the stablemate of the winner Blue Manruna.
Double Spectre went the other way in the market and had over doubled in price by the start of the race and was trading at 70-75 on the exchanges. He duly missed the break and never got involved.

Double dutch

2:05 Sandown – Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+) Gd-sft

ALL STAR – Record at Sandown is – 6/19, 5/19, 17/20 (hurdles) and ¾ (Chase). Never been placed here over obstacles. Best form has come over 2 ½ miles and looks a bit high in the handicap at present from current mark of 128.

JERICHO III – Has worn blinkers for last 8 career wins. Major concern that they are left off today. This is the first time since April 2004 that he hasn’t worn some kind of head gear. Won a class 2 handicap in Dec 06 from today’s mark of 130 at Ascot. Trip and ground are fine and is on a winning mark, stable in form. He is at his best when allowed an uncontested lead and he is unlikely to get that today. Would definitely have a chance but the lack of headgear puts me off him.

BLEU SUPERBE – Made all last time to win a class 2 handicap at Ascot from 127. Only 3 l/b higher today. Has won 3 times from a mark of 132 so on a winnable mark. Can make mistakes with his jumping and fell in 2 of his last 4 runs. Also has a tendency to jump to his left although has a good record on R/H tracks. 13yo now and well into the veteran stage but still holding his form. No problem with trip, ground or track (placed twice in 4 runs here).

HASTY PRINCE – Very good course record, 4 runs = 2 wins and 1 x 2nd. Loves gd-sft ground and has won 2/8 on this surface and been place 3/8 on this ground. Has won in January before. Has the best form in the line up. Hasn’t won a race since April 06 though has ran some very big races in defeat. His last win did come the last time he raced at Sandown. Has ran below form last two runs especially last time when he ran really flat. Stable form has been awful though and there are signs that the stable is coming back to form as they have had a few winners recently. Still has to be a worry about stable form though as most are still running poorly. If he is at his best then he is the horse to beat and I think he would have been favourite if it wasn’t for the poor run last time.

EL VAQUERO – Best form has come over longer trips, likely to be outpaced at this trip. Hard to fancy.

MASTER MINDED – Comes from the all conquering Paul Nicholls yard. Fell on his UK debut last time at Exeter and has fallen in 3 of his last 5 races. Undoubtedly possesses ability and is well regarded but not one to be taking a short price about, though no surprise were he to prove good enough.

CALATAGAN – Won a class 2 handicap chase off 140 last time at Wetherby on gd-sft and is only 5 l/b higher today. This is his trip and he likes the ground and is in form. Has won at a R/H testing track before so no problem with going this way round. Jockey T J Dreaper has won on him 5/14 times and been placed twice on him. This is a lifetime high mark today off 145 and he was beaten in his last 4 runs from 142 so the handicapper may just have him in his grip now, also very best form has come at Wetherby.

HOWLE HILL – Won all 3 chases, including last time on his seasonal debut from a mark of 138 at Ascot over 2m 3f. Raised 8 l/b to a mark of 146 today. No problem with the drop in trip. 4 of his 5 career wins came on good ground and although he did win one race on gd-sft has been unplaced on his last 3 runs on this ground. Top trainer has a very poor record with chasers at Sandown – 0 from 17 in the last 5 years.

Overview:
I am not keen on the front two in the market from the big stables, Master Minded has ability but also has jumping issues and that puts me right off him, Alan Kings record with chasers at Sandown is making me against Howle Hill from a lifetime high mark on this ground. Jericho III running without blinkers and unlikely to get an uncontested lead makes him of no interest to me, Calatagans best form has come at Wetherby and he is racing off a lifetime high mark today and looks too high in the handicap, El Vaquero needs a longer trip. All Star is better over further and looks high in the handicap. I am going for a win and place back of both Bleu Superb and Hasty Prince, I think Hasty Prince would have been fav for this if you ignore his last run (coincided with stable runners being badly out of form), the O’Neil yard appears to be running back into form and they are having winners again and at the price I have to get involved with this horse with the champ on board, Castle Crossings has just confirmed that the stable is coming back to form in the 12:15 chepstow as he has just hacked up on the bridle following on from yesterdays winner. Bleu Superbe is on a winning mark and conditions are ideal, he is the outsider of the field but I think he has a good chance today and don’t see how he is such a big price. It is a very competitive race but I think we have a good chance of landing this bet and walking away with a good profit.

Advised Bet:

1pnt Win and Place – HASTY PRINCE @ 10.5 & 2.74
1pnt Win and Place – BLEU SUPERBE @ 24.0 & 5.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251823,00.html

We staked 4 points and got 2.74 of them back, so we lost 1.26 pnts on the race in total. Hasty Prince ran a good race in 2nd pulling clear of the rest of the field but the best trainer of NH horses in the world Paul Nicholls got the better of us and Master Minded won nicely and looks a good horse. The outsider of the field Bleu Superbe ran a fair race in 5th place and was looking good when still in the lead with 3 fences to go, but after clouting a few fences it took its toll and he dropped away. As ever I'm happy with my reading of the race even when Im wrong.

Threesomes are fun

9:20 Wolverhampton – Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+) 7f 32y

OBE GOLD – Ran well on his last two starts finishing 2nd and winning last time over C&D. Both of those runs were in weak claimers though. That was his first win from 17 starts last time. He is back in handicap company tonight, his record in handicaps reads 11 races and 11 defeats. He has a 6 l/b penalty and is running from a mark of 64 in a class 5 handicap, he has been unable to defy lower marks in handicaps and he may struggle this evening. This is his 3rd race in just 9 days and his last race was just 2 days ago. The busy schedule may catch up with him this evening.

THEORETICAL – Won just 1 race in 12 starts, that was as a 2yo over 6f at Kempton. Has raced over 7f on 3 occasions and was unplaced all 3 runs finishing – 13/15, 6/10 and 22/22. This trip clearly doesn’t suit and she was held in class 6 handicaps in her last two runs over a more suitable trip from marks of 55 and 56, she should struggle to get involved over this trip from 56 this evening.

CAREFREE – Won a lowly Southwell seller and a class 6 Lingfield 3yo handicap from a mark of 55. That win flatters her though as the race was full of rogues and was run at a crawl. She came last of 14 when last seen in October on the turf at Ayr from a mark of 57 when taking on her elders for the first time and cant be fancied tonight. She is likely to struggle from tonights mark of 57 and has the worst form in the line up. Trainer hasn’t had a flat winner since October though has been in top form in NH recently. She has only had 6 runs and is open to improvement . This is her first race for 70 days and Andrew Elliots record when riding for Swinbank is just 1 winner from 25 rides. Swinbank was 0 from 12 with his Wolverhampton runners in 2007.

ALTO VERTIGO – Was beaten just over 2 lengths by Obe Gold 2 days ago in a claimer, when receiving 2 l/b. This race may come too soon for him. He appears to be going backwards and his form is getting worse with each race. He did win a class 6 handicap over C&D 3 runs ago from a mark of 50 however he is 10l/b higher now and should struggle in this grade. He is best when allowed to dominate but with Tanforan in the field he is unlikely to get an uncontested lead. Trainer is in very good form.

WICKED UNCLE – Has had 61 races yet has never raced further than 6 furlongs. That’s likely to be because he wont stay 7f so he is hard to fancy over 7f this evening. All 6 career wins came over 5f and he has been beaten all 15 runs over 6f. Unlikely to be placed.

TANFORAN – Won a class 5 handicap from 55 over C&D 4 runs ago. Has been beaten in his last 3 races since from his new mark of 62, though has gone close and finished twice on 2 occasions. Only the progressive Dasheena was too good for him from this mark 2 runs ago and Dasheena has since won from a higher mark so he does have claims in a weak contest. David Allan is back on board this evening and he has won twice before on the horse. Should go well.

NORTHERN BOY – Record over C&D is – 1,2,2. Won 3 races ago over C&D from a mark of 60. Is racing off 68 this evening, was well beaten last time but the trip was too far for him and Kempton may not have suited the time before so potentially he would still be able to win from this mark and his C&D form is solid. Trainers in form and does well with his older horses at this track. Should go well.

MILLFIELD – Is in good form, ran a decent race last time over a trip that stretches him and will like this drop back to 7f. Won from a mark of 55 at Lingfield 5 runs ago over 7f and won again from 61 3 runs ago at Kempton. Races off 68 now. Effective on polytrack though is 0 from 4 at Wolverhampton, has still ran some decent races here though. George Baker has ridden him in 3 of his last 5 races and has finished 1st, 1st and 2nd so it’s a bonus that George is back on board this evening. This is his best trip and his form is solid, should run a big race. Trainers in form and has a 25% winning strike rate over the last month (2/8).

Overview:
I’m against the front two in the market though they are too big for me to lay them. Both are reappearing just 2 days after there last race, and both ran at claiming level last time and should struggle off there current marks in handicaps. I don’t fancy the two fillies, Carefree has the weakest form in the line up and Theoretical has always ran poorly over this trip. Wicked Uncle is a 5f horse and is unlikely to stay so cant be fancied which leaves me with Millfield, Northern Boy and Tanforan. All three hold sound claims in this race and it is quite hard to split them. I have been trying to work out the best angle to approach this race and have decided to just back all 3 of my fancied horses as it will return a good profit whichever one wins (assuming one does win of course). Hopefully David Allan can make all on Tanforan and not get caught which would give us a massive 12 pnts profit from the bet and I do quite fancy this horse, Northern Boy would give us 4.8 points profit from the bet and if Millfield wins we get a respectable 2.2 points return from the bet. If something else wins we take it on the chin and lose 3 points. It may seem stupid to back 3 horses to some people but I am perfectly happy with the bet and my reasoning for going with it.

Advised Bet:
1pnt Win – MILLFIELD @ 5.2
1pnt Win – NORTHERN BOY @ 7.8
1pnt Win – TANFORAN @ 15.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251708,00.html

A dissapointing result to end the day. Got the favourite unplaced and my biggest price of the three selections Tanforan got 2nd place (I was surprised he wasnt ridden prominently) and Northern Boy got 3rd place, Millfield ran a bad race and didnt run to form, trailing home in last place. So it was a losing bet unfortunately but as I said beforehand I was happy with the bet and am still happy with it now after it lost. If I wasnt happy with my selections then I wouldnt put them up in the first place, its just the way it is that things dont always work out. Will be back tomorrow as usual and will hopefully take care of things and get back on the winning trail.

Ballyfitz hound dog

2:50 Lingfield – Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) 2m 7f Soft (Heavy in places)

BALLYFITZ – Has a 100% record over hurdles, 3 races and 3 wins. Won last time on seasonal reappearance and first run for 14 months on soft ground over 3m at Chepstow. This race is likely to come too soon just 8 days later and he is likely to bounce and run below form. His wins came at galloping and testing tracks (Towcester, Newcastle and Chepstow). Dropping a furlong down in trip on todays sharp track may not suit. Trainer is 0 from 7 with his hurdlers at this track over the last 5 years. Has a 7l/b penalty today. Ballyfitz carried 10-12, 10-11 and 11-2 for his wins, he carries 11-7 today and that is the most weight he has had on his back.

ENGLISH JIM – Has been pulled up on 3 of last 4 runs and hasn’t been placed since February 2007. His highest winning mark was 87 and he is running off 92 today. Trainer has never had a hurdles winner here and I cant see this horse changing that record. Races from 1 l/b out of handicap. A big gamble has been going down on this horse all morning, I am expecting the gamble to end in tears for the backers.

GEORGES BOY – Won over C&D on soft ground from 93 when last seen in March. 7 l/b higher today on first run of the season. Usually improves for a run so likely to need this race. That was his first run in 25 races, however most of his races have been at R/H testing tracks and this C&D may be exactly what he wants. Trainer has a 100% record at Lingfield (1/1 – this horse was his only course runner). Could be a lively outsider if trainer has him fit and firing today.

COME BYE – No problem with ground, trip and track should suit. Recent form has come in sellers and claimers though and this is tougher back in handicap company. He is only 5 l/b above his highest winning mark which came in Feb last year which would give him an outside squeak but he doesn’t look up to winning in this grade on the balance of his form.

FRANCO – All 3 wins came at R/H tracks. He generally races at R/H tracks and every time he has gone L/H over obstacles he has been unplaced. Trip and ground suit and has won on a sharp track but looks in handicappers grip from current mark of 119, especially racing this way.

CODA AGENCY – Won a novice hurdle on hurdle debut at Towcester over 2m. Has since been beaten in all 3 runs in handicap company off 110, 108 and 110. Races off 109 today and no reason to think he can defy the mark this time. Form has come over much shorter trips and he has to prove he can stay 2m 7f. All hurdles runs have been at R/H testing tracks. Unproven on soft ground. Andrew Thornton has never ridden a winner for the trainer.

ELLWAY PROSPECT – Both career wins came at R/H tracks. This is first try at the trip, though she is likely to stay. Effective on soft ground and no problems with a sharp track. Won off a 6 l/b lower mark last season and has ran in some decent contests including a listed handicap hurdle. This is Jamie Moores first ride for the stable and its an interesting jockey booking. Had a tough race on first run for 7 months last time and this 2nd run may come a bit soon for her. Not without hope and an interesting runner.

STOLEN MOMENTS – Trainer won this race last year and is in form. Ran well from a mark of 107 on seasonal debut, ran below form next time from 113 but that can be put down to the bounce factor not the raise in the handicap. Won his bumper on soft ground and has form on sharp tracks. Should be at full fitness today. Has looked as if he lacks a bit of fight in a finish in the past so the 1st time blinkers may sharpen him up and he has a definite chance in this race. Trainer has an outstanding 50% strike rate with his hurdlers at Lingfield (6/12) and this runner is a major player. Trainer has a 100% record with handicap hurdlers here (2/2).

TISSEMAN – Won a maiden hurdle on soft ground and ran best race yet when upped to 3m 1f at Kempton last time in a class 3 handicap hurdle. Has only had 7 career races and is open to plenty of improvement. Is 4 l/b higher than for 2nd last time but likely to go well today for top connections.

THE VERY MAN – Won his bumper on soft ground and no problem with trip. AP McCoy on board is always a positive for any horse. Only had 6 career races and open to plenty of improvement. Was pulled up in a chase last time but looked good the time before over hurdles when 2nd off a mark of 108. Racing off 113 today. Trainer only 2-22 with course hurdlers and stable form is a big worry at present. They are getting the occasional horse run a good race but majority from this stable are running below form.

NIGHTFLY – Won a bumper on his debut before running respectably in the Cheltenham festival bumper. Was impressive when winning on hurdles debut when last seen, at this track over 2 1/2m on gd-sft. This is 1st race for 422 days but both of his career wins came when he was fresh so fitness shouldn’t be an issue today. Makes his handicap debut today from a mark of 116 and that looks quite a fair mark as he looks progressive and this step up in trip should suit. A definite player.

Overview:
I am very much against the favourite Ballyfitz today, unfortunately it seems I am not the only one as it has been drifting this morning. It may well strengthen up again before the race though and hopefully it will come into 3.5 or shorter (I never lay above 3.5). There’s a good chance it will shorten up as most major bookmakers have priced it as a 2/1 shot on the early prices. This looks a competitive race with Nightfly, Tisseman, The Very Man and Ellway Prospect all holding decent claims, the horse I like as an E/W bet is Alan Kings Stolen Moments, Alan King is 6/12 with his hurdlers here and there is an outstanding chance that come the race start time his record will be standing at 7/13 as I expect HALDIBARI to win the 1:20 race.

Advised bets:

2pnt LAY – BALLYFITZ @ 3.5 or shorter (if not available pre race, try and get matched at 3.5 in running)
1/2pnt WIN – STOLEN MOMENTS @ 13.0
1/2pnt PLACE – STOLEN MOMENTS @ 3.5

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251719,00.html

A good result on the main race of the day. Ballyfitz was backed in pre race to around 3.0 on the exhcanges and he ran a decent race in 2nd place though he never really looked like he was going to win the race. Stolen Moments was heavily backed pre race into around 8.0 on betfair and ran a decent race to land our place bet comfortably securing 3rd place. Im still kicking myself for laying the Nicholls horse earlier but am obviously pleased with my main write up of the day. Jonjo O'Neil appears to be coming back into form as The Very Man was his 2nd winner of the day. Im not sure why the links to sporting life results is no longer directly linking but I will try and get that sorted.

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Additional Bet:
1:20 Lingfield – 1pnt WIN –HALDIBARI @ 2.8
- 1pnt LAY – CHAPOTURGEON @ 3.0

Brief Overview:

Haldibari has an outstanding chance today as main market rival is not a fluent jumper of hurdles, step down to this trip will suit Kings runner and he is expected to run a very big race today by me. I rarely lay a Paul Nicholls runner but am happy to take Chapoturgeon on in this race. If Haldibari was to run below form for any reason today then Souriceau and Cavalry Twins are serious rivals to Chapoturgeon and should ensure we get the lay beat and cut level on the race.

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251719,00.html

A bad start to Friday with my decision to post an extra bet alongside the days main race proving to be a bad one.I have been reminded why I rarely lay a horse from the brilliant Paul Nicholls stable, as Chapturgeons hurdling was much improved this time (except for a dodgy last flight jump), my fancy did get 2nd and beat the rest but 2nd was not good enough.

Punting Patto's Saturday Selections

It's that time of the week again when the legendary Australian tipster 'Punting Patto' reveals his Saturday selections for the Australian racing. This is the first Patto video of 2008 and not only does he treat us to his best selections but he delivers yet another outstanding song.

A pair of cretins

2:20 Fontwell – Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5yo+) 2m 4f

ROMANY DREAM –All 6 career wins came between the months of March and November. Best form normally comes in Spring. Is running from 3 l/b out of the handicap today. Jockey Charlie Poste has never ridden a winner for the trainer in 16 rides. Horse has never won in this grade, wins came in class 4 or below.

LEASE BACK – Best form has come over 2m6 and 3 miles. Today’s trip is on the short side for him. Career wins came in the months – May – x2, June, September. Has always ran poorly in the winter. Was PU only attempt over fences in the UK though did win 2 chases in France back in 2003. Won over hurdles at Uttoxeter when last seen in May over 3 mile on good ground. Trainer is 5/30 with his chasers at Fontwell. Jockey is 0/2 when riding for trainer. This is his first race for 229 days and he may need it.

RANDWICK ROAR – Has ran respectably in class 3 handicap chases from higher marks. OR is dropping down and he could be dangerous off this sort of mark. Probably needed 1st run of the season when he was bought down by a rival when beaten, and then would have found 3 miles too far on his 2nd run. Fitness wise he should be spot on today and he has dropped to a mark of 115. Effective on the ground and trip is ideal. Trainers in form and does well here. Trainer and jockey combination are 29% on all runners at the track this season.

MY WORLD – Has won 4 times in her career, although all wins came in novice events, she has never won a handicap. All her wins came on Heavy, soft or gd-sft and today’s ground should be too lively for her. All wins came over trips between 16 & 18 f. She does stay todays trip but is better over shorter.

IM SUPREME – Has only had 6 races and will be open to plenty of improvement. This is his chase debut today and he has to prove he can jump fences (comes from a top yard and jumping shouldn’t be an issue). Was a maiden over hurdles but was effective at this trip. Handicap mark of 100 looks quite harsh for his first run over fences. Was beaten a combined distance of 77 lengths in his two handicap hurdles runs (both from marks of 104). Interesting that he is going straight into handicaps over fences and does have an entry on the 7th of January which could mean connections think he can win today and will be running him in 4 days time under a penalty. Trainer is 6/18 with his Fontwell chasers over the last 5 years.

LIDJO DE ROUGE – Horse is in form and won last time at Wincanton over 2m 5f on soft, he is racing under a 7 l/b penalty today and is up in grade from class 4 to class 3. Was well beaten 11/14 on only previous run at Fontwell (hurdles), though that was his first run in the UK and he has progressed since then. In 5 UK runs his best 2 runs came at right handed Wincanton and its possible he is better going that way. Win came on soft and also ran well on heavy may need a more testing surface to be seen at his best although he did win on good ground in France. Only 2 wins in 38 career runs.

MIGHTY MATTERS – Won 3 x class 4 handicap chases in a row for this yard from marks of 93, 105 and 114. Run was halted last time from new mark of 125 when upped in grade to class 3, that was over 3m 1f but he had won over 3m before so trip shouldn’t have been an issue. Again racing off 125 in class 3, he appears to be in the handicappers pocket now. All 4 career wins came at right handed tracks and he is better racing that way. He was unplaced in all 3 races over obstacles going left handed. This trip could be on the sharp side at today’s track.

SOUWESTER – Won easily on first run for 18 months last time at Plumpton over 2 m 4f on soft ground. This 2nd run back after a long lay off may come too soon and he is a potential bounce horse today. Has been raised 23 l/b by the handicapper for the win last time. He was rated higher over hurdles so could be on a potentially fair mark based on his form in novice hurdles last season, though his only handicap win over hurdles was in a lowly selling handicap hurdle from a mark of 76. His win last time came in a class 5 handicap and this is a big rise in grade today to class 3.

Overview:
I am looking to get the front two in the market beaten in this race. Mighty Matters is priced up on his right handed form and is not as good racing this way and may be held by the handicapper now anyway so I have to lay him. Souwester has a big rise in the handicap to overcome and there is a big chance he will bounce and run below form today. I have decided to lay them both to level stakes as I feel they are both beatable today and have gone for a win bet on Randwick Roar and Im Supreme. As long as Souwester and Mighty Matters get beat then we are guaranteed a profit and the worse case scenario is a 2.35 point loss.

Advised Bet:
1 Point LAY – SOUWESTER @ 3.35
1 Point LAY – MIGHTY MATTERS @ 3.35
½ Point Win – RANDWICK ROAR @ 14.0
½ Point Win – IM SUPREME @ 11.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251582,00.html

Another winning day and Im always going to be pleased with that. The two lays were both comfortably beaten with Mighty Matters pulled up and Souwester in 3rd. Both Randwick Roar and Im Supreme were backed in quite strongly pre race but both ran poor races in 5th and 6th place but a winning bet was landed all the same.

Dutched win and place bet

2:45 Ayr – Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5yo+) Heavy

POSH STICKS – Fell in a hurdles race on first run for 8 months last time. He is a spring/summer horse, 4 career wins – 2 in March, 1 in April and 1 in August. Carlisle specialist with 3 of 4 wins coming at that track. Last handicap win was from a mark of 89, on old form he would be up to winning a race off today’s mark of 96. Horse has ran 3 times in January over the years, he is yet to complete a race in this month. Has been beaten all 5 times he has raced in a class 3 race. Not up to this grade. Likely to be unplaced. Flexible tactically.

KING OF THE ARCTIC – Has never been placed in 3 runs on heavy ground. Course record is – unplaced in 4 of 5 runs. Ran like a rogue last time, over course and distance on heavy ground on first run for 4 months. He has gone well fresh before so fitness was unlikely to be the issue and he looks badly out of sorts at present. Won a 4 runner race from a mark of 118 in July but looks held by handicapper at present from current mark of 123. Likely to be unplaced. Races prominent.

SILVER JACK – Has won 3 times over fences, 2 of those wins came on heavy ground. Likes Ayr and has won twice at this track. He looks a bit high in the handicap at present, 9l/b above his last winning mark. His jumping has gone to pieces in his last two races with a fall and a series of blunders. His best form has come over 2m 7f + and this trip may be on the sharp side these days. Ran badly and made mistakes when PU last time. Prominent racer can lead.

LAMPION DU BOST – Career best form came over todays course and distance on heavy ground, won over C&D on heavy 2 runs ago in this grade. Won 3 runs ago also at Aintree from a mark of 104. He was 7th last time over 3m at Haydock from his new mark of 118. He is likely to run a decent race today but the handicapper may have his measure now. Was beaten 1 ½ lengths by Master Sebastian last January. Master Sebastian is now 19 l/b better off with that rival and should comfortably beat him. Races prominent.

AKILAK – J Howard Johnson won this race in 2000. Won over today’s trip at Carlisle last time on seasonal reappearance in a Carlisle novice event on heavy ground. Trip and ground ideal. Always runs his best races when fresh so may not be as good today. Makes handicap debut from a mark of 124 which looks a touch harsh on what he has achieved in 6 novice/beginners chases. Was unplaced 4th of 7 when 6/5 fav on his only previous course run last December. Held up for win last time though is flexible with tactics.



MASTER SEBASTIAN – Likes heavy ground and has won over today’s course and distance on heavy. Has won this race for the last 2 years running, from a mark of 105 and from today’s mark of 110. Racing off 110 today with conditions ideal he is likely to run a big race. He would have needed his first run of the season and then possibly bounced next time out. He will have been targeted for this race and should be 100% fit, primed and ready to run a big race with conditions ideal. Races prominent.


VILLON – This is first race for 747 days. Was a progressive horse when last seen. Has won 5 of 6 career runs. 3 of those wins came on heavy ground and he has won over course and distance. He is bred to be a chaser and ran a career best race on his chase debut when last seen over 2 years ago. Makes his handicap debut today from a mark of 130 and if he retains his ability and is close to full fitness then he could easily win this race under conditions that suit as he was a potential Cheltenham festival horse when last seen. He beat Roman Ark by 6 lengths on his chase debut giving him 3 l/b, Roman Ark is currently rated a 145 chaser and most horses will improve for there chase debut so Villon could be absolutely thrown in here. The horse was having his first run after a break for 3 of the 5 wins and the trainer is a master at readying a horse after a long absence so fitness is not likely to be an issue. Len Lungo appears to like his chasers winning in January. Jan 07 – 3/9, Jan 06 – 3/10, Jan 05 – 4/9. His record is 10 winners from his last 28 runners over fences in the month of January. Trainer is 10/27 (37%) with his Ayr chasers in the last 5 years. This is his only chase runner on the card. Hold up horse.


FIRST LOOK – Has ran 3 times in handicap chases. 12th of 14 – OR 120, 2nd of 8 – OR 118 and 3rd of 5 – OR 118. Races off 120 today. Was 3rd of 5 last time over todays course and distance on heavy ground from 118, he was only beaten 6 ½ lengths and is open to improvement still after just 6 chase runs. Course record is 1123 (fences and hurdles). He can pull hard and is likely to try and make all. A lot will depend on how he settles today, if he does settle and gets an uncontested lead he would be dangerous. Trainer has had 2 winners from last 4 runners. Likely to be there fighting at the finish.

Overview: I can confidently rule out Posh Sticks, King Of The Arctic, Silver Jack and Lampion Du Bost. Akilaks poor course form is off putting as well as the fact that he is a better horse when fresh so I’m against him today.
The race boils down to 3 horses in my opinion, the fact that First Look has been beaten in his last 3 handicaps from 118-120 just puts me off that horse today although he cant be ruled out. Master Sebastian is of massive interest, has the form in the book, is on a winning mark and has won this race for the last 2 years, he gets his ideal conditions today and looks a solid E/W bet with a great chance of winning. Villon is an extremely interesting rival though and everything looks good for him today, he could be miles ahead of his current handicap mark and could potentially win easily (his only career defeat came in the grade 1 Supreme Novice hurdle at Cheltenham festival). Of course there is always the chance that he is not as good a horse as he was when last seen 2 yeas ago. I have gone for 1 pnt win and place on Villon. And 1 pnt win, 2pnts place on Master Sebastian.

Advised Bet:
1pnt WIN, 1pnt PLACE – VILLON @ 4.9 & 1.9
1pnt WIN, 2 pnts PLACE – MASTER SEBASTIAN @ 6.4 & 2.1

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251498,00.html

After the embarrasment of having a losing day yesterday it was essential I took care of things today. I couldnt have been more pleased with the result with Master Sebastian and Villon pulling right away from the field to give me a very enjoyable finish to the race.

Sin King

1:20 Catterick – Claiming hurdle (class 5) 2m 3f Soft (heavy in places)

SUN KING – (K G Reverley - James Reverley)
# Record at Catterick over hurdles is 3 runs - 3 times unplaced.
# Course form figures = 7/12, 4/15 & PU
# 5 career wins on gd-frm and 2 wins on good, never won on softer than good.
# 5 out of 6 hurdles wins came at a right handed track
# Unplaced on both career runs on soft ground – 6/13 (beaten 40 lengths) & 14/16 (beaten 22 lngths-flat race)
# Also unplaced only run on heavy – 11/15 (beaten 46 lengths)
# 12 Stone is his biggest ever weight carried. 11-7 was his previous biggest weight.
# Was comfortably beaten in a claimer last time.
# Has the highest OR but does not look up to that rating judging by defeat in claimer last time.
# Best at 2mile, this trip stretches his stamina.

Overview:
On official figures Sun King is the horse to beat, however with some pretty big negatives against him including – ground worries, trip worries, poor course form, big weight and the fact he is better racing right handed. Add in, that his current Official rating appears to flatter him and we should have a good chance of getting him beaten at a short price. Diamond Mick looks a solid e/w horse at 6/1.

Advised Bet:
LAY – SUN KING @ 2.88

Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251393,00.html

Sun King won the race and so of course I am not happy with the result, but I was happy with my reasoning for taking him on so have no complaints. My E/W fancy Diamond Mick ran a good race in 2nd but wasnt good enough to beat the favourite.

Major Mongrel

12:15 Tramore - Novice handicap hurdle (4yo+) 2m Soft

MAJOR SENSATION - (A L T Moore - D J Casey)

# Form going R/H is – 8/19 beaten 41 lengths, 9/18 beaten 34 lengths.
# Won a 2 mile handicap hurdle last time at a galloping track.
# Related to national winner, so likely to need much further to show best.
# Got outpaced last time between the last two flights before staying on strongly to win.
# This sharp track should see him getting properly outpaced with no time to stay on.
# Off track for 10 ½ months, only given 4 days to recover, likely to bounce.
# Win came on good ground, Soft not certain to suit.
# Bred to be a chaser.
# Only carried 10 stone for the win, carries 11-3 today (17 l/b more)
# 6 l/b penalty today.

I have been quite short on time this morning so no major race review. At the prices we simply have to take this horse on though with plenty of negatives against it. I will be posting another lay up for this afternoon on the blog before 1pm, so dont forget to check back.

Advised Bet:
LAY - MAJOR SENSATION @ 2.16

Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251548,00.html

A dissapointing start to 2008 with Major Sensation winning. He only held on by a diminishing head but its a losing bet and I can never be happy with one of those.