Swine Bag

1:10 Musselburgh

SUALDA –
# Ran an absolute shocker when last seen on first run for this stable when beaten 50 + lengths in a flat race.
# He was eased when beaten but even accounting for that he looks badly out of form
# Was formerly trained by David Evans, the switch to a lesser stable is not likely to improve him
# Best on good-frm and effective on good. Does not like the ground to be softer so conditions against him today
# Only career jumps win came at a L/H oval track (Worcester)
# All 10 career wins have came between the months of May and September
# Spring/summer horse who does not like this time of year as proved last run
# Stable have only had 1 winner in NH and that was in a chase
# Jockey Brian Hughes is 0-19 with his hurdles rides at Musselburgh in the last 5 years
# Has a tendency to jump to his left and will lose ground at the hurdles racing this way round
# The fact that he is entered in a seller points to the fact he has probably lost a lot of his ability

Overview:

This is a weak seller and Sualda although on best form would be the horse to beat, with the negatives such as the ground, the r/h track, the stable and the horses most recent run then at the current price he simply has to be layed. Marlborough Sound is the best horse in the race and will take the world of beating if retaining any of the ability he posessesed when last seen over 700 days ago. Nevinstown will be suited by this track and can improve on his last 2 hurdles runs at Newcastles testing track. It’s a tough race to find the winner and no horse looks to have a solid chance, however at the prices there is only one bet and that is the lay of the favourite. I have place layed Sualda as well due to the risk being so small at the odds of 1.25, and there is a good chance he will run a stinker and never get involved in this.

Advised Bet:

3 Point LAY – SUALDA @ 2.16
4 Point PLACE LAY – SUALDA @ 1.25

RESULT:
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252111,00.html

After a disastrous last couple of days it was essential that I got back on track today and am pleased to report that I did just that. Sualda could only manage 5th place ensuring that the lay at 2.16 and the place lay at 1.25 was landed. The two horses I thought would run well, Marlborough Sound and Nevinstown filled the places with The Weaver running out a nice winner.