Call the cops

2:50 Wolverhampton – Handicap (Class 6) (3yo)

BOLD DIVA - Won her last two races from marks of 45 (Kempton 6f) and 52 (Southwell 6f). She has a 6 l/b penalty today and that may be enough to stop her. She is a 3yo filly carrying top weight in a handicap. She only carried 8-0 and 8-4 for her two wins, she has to carry 9-4 today and that is the most weight she has ever carried and has 14 l/b more weight than last time. She won from 52 on fibresand last time, but her polytrack win came off 45, so she is no certainty to win off a 13 l/b higher mark back on polytrack today. Jockey Kirst Milczarek was a 5 l/b claimer for both of those wins, due to her recent winning spree she is now only a 3 l/b claimer so that is another 2 l/b extra on this horses back. On the plus side, she has improved with her last two runs and could progress again and she is in form.

WYNBERG – This is S Callaghans first runner (its amazing how many times a first time trainer wins with there first runner, or a jockey returning from injury etc wins on their first ride back). Doesn’t have much form in the book and has been unplaced and nearer last than first all 7 races. Has a tendency to miss the break and be slowly into stride although in his race at Lingfield last time he managed to fly out the traps and lead (a course where it’s very hard to make all) he was missing the break at Southwell (a course where you don’t want to miss the break), im sure if he bolts up these excuses will be used in the stewards room for the improved form alongside the new trainer must have worked some magic etc etc etc . I wonder if he has so far been ridden to get beaten so they can land a touch with the horse from his dropping handicap mark. If that is the case the touch is very likely to be today with it being the trainers first runner.

FULFORD – Won a weak Southwell maiden 2 runs ago over 6f. Was then beaten 5 lengths last time over Southwells 6f by today’s fav Bold Diva giving her 11 l/b, he is 14 l/b better off for a 5 length defeat today (+ the 2 l/b claim that Kirst has lost). Was 6th of 9 over C&D beaten 6 lengths, he may be better on fibresand or it may have been he needed that first run for 3 ½ months. If you forgive him his poor run at this track then he would definitely have a chance of beating Bold Diva and even winning this from a mark of 55.

REGAL VEIL – Beaten 2 ½ lengths by Bold Diva at 6f Southwell last time on her handicap debut. She is 23 l/b better off with that rival today for 2 ½ lengths (including the jockey claims) and she should be more streetwise after her initial experience of a handicap. She was well beaten in her 3 maidens (2 of them on polytrack) so there could be a case that she is better on fibresand, but a lot of horses run poorly in maidens only to improve when sent handicapping so potentially she is well in here if acting on polytrack.

WHEETFROMTHECHAFF – Was well backed in a very weak handicap last time, where all the runners were maidens but could only finish 4th. 6 of his 8 runs have been over 7f, the 2 occasions he ran over 6f he finished 10th of 12 and 13th of 13. The drop back to 6f has to be a big worry, he has a tendency to hang and isn’t straight forward. Hard to fancy carrying joint top weight in this race. Has been beaten in claimers and this looks a tougher race than the ones he has been running in.

LITTLE FINCH – Was beaten 3 ½ lengths by Bold Diva at Kempton over 6f. She is 27 l/b better off at the weights with that rival today (including jockey claims) and would have to have a serious chance of reversing that form. Richard Guest has put Krish Gundowry on board today, the jockey has ridden 2 winners from 5 runners on Guests 3yo and older horses. Does hold 3 entries in the next 4 days, could well show improved form today win and then turn out quickly under a penalty.

ANDRASTA – Beaten 20 lengths in a claimer last time, looks out of form and hard to fancy.

LIANI – Stable haven’t had a winner since July and are out of form. Hard to fancy this horse from today’s mark of 50 and may be better over 7f. Although 8-10 is a low weight this is the biggest weight she has ever carried. She has been beaten 7 times at selling level (unplaced in 5 of them) and does not look up to winning in handicap company. Although she ran respectably in her last two races that was on the fibresand and it’s possible she is more suited to that surface although she does handle polytrack.


Overview:

A truly sickening race filled to the brim with cretins, rogues and scoundrels. After looking at the card today I soon realised this was not a day to be risking big money and decided I would do a write up on one race and go with a bet in it. Well this is the race I chose as it has 8 runners and a short priced favourite that may be vulnerable.
Wynberg looks as though he may have been lined up to land a coup in this race, the graph on betfair suggests the same and at the time of writing the horse has been backed into 2nd fav and the price is in free fall so absolutely no surprises if this bolts up today and leaves all previous form behind. The favourite Bold Diva is improving and it’s not out of the question that she can improve again and run well though I have no interest in her at the price and there is plenty of negatives against her (wont be laying though). The two horses I can confidently (I think!!) rule out are Liani and Andrasta. Fulford, Regal Veil and Little Finch have all been beaten by Bold Diva but all 3 have a big pull in the weights today with that horse and the winner could well come from one of these 3. I think with Richard Guest putting on K Gundowry today that could be significant and it is the outsider of the field that I like especially as she is 27 l/b better off for a 3 ½ length beating at the hands of Bold Diva. I have decided to risk 3 points and back the 3 that stand out for me, but do understand that this race has an extremely dodgy look to it and anything goes. This bet is more for the sake of writing something today on my blog than due to any confidence in today’s racing and I would not be having a bet here if I wasn’t well in profit overall on this blog, as it is I am well in profit so will have a little play. All said we may well land a nice touch here, especially if Little Finch delivers the goods for us.

Advised Bet:

1 Point Win – LITTLE FINCH @ 40.0
1 Point Win – REGAL VEIL @ 8.8
1 Point Win – FULFORD @ 6.8

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252984,00.html

A good result with Fulford winning nicely and making a profit of 3.8 points on the bet and the day. Wynberg quite predictably ran his best ever race and improved bundles, he traded as short as 1.61 in running but could only manage 3rd (Im sure connections would have been on early E/W so they will be happy enough). Bold Diva did prove to be vulnerable and just got 2nd place. Little Finch ran a fair race in 5th although never looked like winning. Regal Veil missed the break and never looked dangerous back in 6th place. The two horses who I said I could confidently ruled out 'Andastra and Liani' filled the last two places. So all in all not a bad bet for a horrible looking race.