Ballyfitz hound dog

2:50 Lingfield – Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) 2m 7f Soft (Heavy in places)

BALLYFITZ – Has a 100% record over hurdles, 3 races and 3 wins. Won last time on seasonal reappearance and first run for 14 months on soft ground over 3m at Chepstow. This race is likely to come too soon just 8 days later and he is likely to bounce and run below form. His wins came at galloping and testing tracks (Towcester, Newcastle and Chepstow). Dropping a furlong down in trip on todays sharp track may not suit. Trainer is 0 from 7 with his hurdlers at this track over the last 5 years. Has a 7l/b penalty today. Ballyfitz carried 10-12, 10-11 and 11-2 for his wins, he carries 11-7 today and that is the most weight he has had on his back.

ENGLISH JIM – Has been pulled up on 3 of last 4 runs and hasn’t been placed since February 2007. His highest winning mark was 87 and he is running off 92 today. Trainer has never had a hurdles winner here and I cant see this horse changing that record. Races from 1 l/b out of handicap. A big gamble has been going down on this horse all morning, I am expecting the gamble to end in tears for the backers.

GEORGES BOY – Won over C&D on soft ground from 93 when last seen in March. 7 l/b higher today on first run of the season. Usually improves for a run so likely to need this race. That was his first run in 25 races, however most of his races have been at R/H testing tracks and this C&D may be exactly what he wants. Trainer has a 100% record at Lingfield (1/1 – this horse was his only course runner). Could be a lively outsider if trainer has him fit and firing today.

COME BYE – No problem with ground, trip and track should suit. Recent form has come in sellers and claimers though and this is tougher back in handicap company. He is only 5 l/b above his highest winning mark which came in Feb last year which would give him an outside squeak but he doesn’t look up to winning in this grade on the balance of his form.

FRANCO – All 3 wins came at R/H tracks. He generally races at R/H tracks and every time he has gone L/H over obstacles he has been unplaced. Trip and ground suit and has won on a sharp track but looks in handicappers grip from current mark of 119, especially racing this way.

CODA AGENCY – Won a novice hurdle on hurdle debut at Towcester over 2m. Has since been beaten in all 3 runs in handicap company off 110, 108 and 110. Races off 109 today and no reason to think he can defy the mark this time. Form has come over much shorter trips and he has to prove he can stay 2m 7f. All hurdles runs have been at R/H testing tracks. Unproven on soft ground. Andrew Thornton has never ridden a winner for the trainer.

ELLWAY PROSPECT – Both career wins came at R/H tracks. This is first try at the trip, though she is likely to stay. Effective on soft ground and no problems with a sharp track. Won off a 6 l/b lower mark last season and has ran in some decent contests including a listed handicap hurdle. This is Jamie Moores first ride for the stable and its an interesting jockey booking. Had a tough race on first run for 7 months last time and this 2nd run may come a bit soon for her. Not without hope and an interesting runner.

STOLEN MOMENTS – Trainer won this race last year and is in form. Ran well from a mark of 107 on seasonal debut, ran below form next time from 113 but that can be put down to the bounce factor not the raise in the handicap. Won his bumper on soft ground and has form on sharp tracks. Should be at full fitness today. Has looked as if he lacks a bit of fight in a finish in the past so the 1st time blinkers may sharpen him up and he has a definite chance in this race. Trainer has an outstanding 50% strike rate with his hurdlers at Lingfield (6/12) and this runner is a major player. Trainer has a 100% record with handicap hurdlers here (2/2).

TISSEMAN – Won a maiden hurdle on soft ground and ran best race yet when upped to 3m 1f at Kempton last time in a class 3 handicap hurdle. Has only had 7 career races and is open to plenty of improvement. Is 4 l/b higher than for 2nd last time but likely to go well today for top connections.

THE VERY MAN – Won his bumper on soft ground and no problem with trip. AP McCoy on board is always a positive for any horse. Only had 6 career races and open to plenty of improvement. Was pulled up in a chase last time but looked good the time before over hurdles when 2nd off a mark of 108. Racing off 113 today. Trainer only 2-22 with course hurdlers and stable form is a big worry at present. They are getting the occasional horse run a good race but majority from this stable are running below form.

NIGHTFLY – Won a bumper on his debut before running respectably in the Cheltenham festival bumper. Was impressive when winning on hurdles debut when last seen, at this track over 2 1/2m on gd-sft. This is 1st race for 422 days but both of his career wins came when he was fresh so fitness shouldn’t be an issue today. Makes his handicap debut today from a mark of 116 and that looks quite a fair mark as he looks progressive and this step up in trip should suit. A definite player.

Overview:
I am very much against the favourite Ballyfitz today, unfortunately it seems I am not the only one as it has been drifting this morning. It may well strengthen up again before the race though and hopefully it will come into 3.5 or shorter (I never lay above 3.5). There’s a good chance it will shorten up as most major bookmakers have priced it as a 2/1 shot on the early prices. This looks a competitive race with Nightfly, Tisseman, The Very Man and Ellway Prospect all holding decent claims, the horse I like as an E/W bet is Alan Kings Stolen Moments, Alan King is 6/12 with his hurdlers here and there is an outstanding chance that come the race start time his record will be standing at 7/13 as I expect HALDIBARI to win the 1:20 race.

Advised bets:

2pnt LAY – BALLYFITZ @ 3.5 or shorter (if not available pre race, try and get matched at 3.5 in running)
1/2pnt WIN – STOLEN MOMENTS @ 13.0
1/2pnt PLACE – STOLEN MOMENTS @ 3.5

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251719,00.html

A good result on the main race of the day. Ballyfitz was backed in pre race to around 3.0 on the exhcanges and he ran a decent race in 2nd place though he never really looked like he was going to win the race. Stolen Moments was heavily backed pre race into around 8.0 on betfair and ran a decent race to land our place bet comfortably securing 3rd place. Im still kicking myself for laying the Nicholls horse earlier but am obviously pleased with my main write up of the day. Jonjo O'Neil appears to be coming back into form as The Very Man was his 2nd winner of the day. Im not sure why the links to sporting life results is no longer directly linking but I will try and get that sorted.

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Additional Bet:
1:20 Lingfield – 1pnt WIN –HALDIBARI @ 2.8
- 1pnt LAY – CHAPOTURGEON @ 3.0

Brief Overview:

Haldibari has an outstanding chance today as main market rival is not a fluent jumper of hurdles, step down to this trip will suit Kings runner and he is expected to run a very big race today by me. I rarely lay a Paul Nicholls runner but am happy to take Chapoturgeon on in this race. If Haldibari was to run below form for any reason today then Souriceau and Cavalry Twins are serious rivals to Chapoturgeon and should ensure we get the lay beat and cut level on the race.

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251719,00.html

A bad start to Friday with my decision to post an extra bet alongside the days main race proving to be a bad one.I have been reminded why I rarely lay a horse from the brilliant Paul Nicholls stable, as Chapturgeons hurdling was much improved this time (except for a dodgy last flight jump), my fancy did get 2nd and beat the rest but 2nd was not good enough.