Threesomes are fun

9:20 Wolverhampton – Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+) 7f 32y

OBE GOLD – Ran well on his last two starts finishing 2nd and winning last time over C&D. Both of those runs were in weak claimers though. That was his first win from 17 starts last time. He is back in handicap company tonight, his record in handicaps reads 11 races and 11 defeats. He has a 6 l/b penalty and is running from a mark of 64 in a class 5 handicap, he has been unable to defy lower marks in handicaps and he may struggle this evening. This is his 3rd race in just 9 days and his last race was just 2 days ago. The busy schedule may catch up with him this evening.

THEORETICAL – Won just 1 race in 12 starts, that was as a 2yo over 6f at Kempton. Has raced over 7f on 3 occasions and was unplaced all 3 runs finishing – 13/15, 6/10 and 22/22. This trip clearly doesn’t suit and she was held in class 6 handicaps in her last two runs over a more suitable trip from marks of 55 and 56, she should struggle to get involved over this trip from 56 this evening.

CAREFREE – Won a lowly Southwell seller and a class 6 Lingfield 3yo handicap from a mark of 55. That win flatters her though as the race was full of rogues and was run at a crawl. She came last of 14 when last seen in October on the turf at Ayr from a mark of 57 when taking on her elders for the first time and cant be fancied tonight. She is likely to struggle from tonights mark of 57 and has the worst form in the line up. Trainer hasn’t had a flat winner since October though has been in top form in NH recently. She has only had 6 runs and is open to improvement . This is her first race for 70 days and Andrew Elliots record when riding for Swinbank is just 1 winner from 25 rides. Swinbank was 0 from 12 with his Wolverhampton runners in 2007.

ALTO VERTIGO – Was beaten just over 2 lengths by Obe Gold 2 days ago in a claimer, when receiving 2 l/b. This race may come too soon for him. He appears to be going backwards and his form is getting worse with each race. He did win a class 6 handicap over C&D 3 runs ago from a mark of 50 however he is 10l/b higher now and should struggle in this grade. He is best when allowed to dominate but with Tanforan in the field he is unlikely to get an uncontested lead. Trainer is in very good form.

WICKED UNCLE – Has had 61 races yet has never raced further than 6 furlongs. That’s likely to be because he wont stay 7f so he is hard to fancy over 7f this evening. All 6 career wins came over 5f and he has been beaten all 15 runs over 6f. Unlikely to be placed.

TANFORAN – Won a class 5 handicap from 55 over C&D 4 runs ago. Has been beaten in his last 3 races since from his new mark of 62, though has gone close and finished twice on 2 occasions. Only the progressive Dasheena was too good for him from this mark 2 runs ago and Dasheena has since won from a higher mark so he does have claims in a weak contest. David Allan is back on board this evening and he has won twice before on the horse. Should go well.

NORTHERN BOY – Record over C&D is – 1,2,2. Won 3 races ago over C&D from a mark of 60. Is racing off 68 this evening, was well beaten last time but the trip was too far for him and Kempton may not have suited the time before so potentially he would still be able to win from this mark and his C&D form is solid. Trainers in form and does well with his older horses at this track. Should go well.

MILLFIELD – Is in good form, ran a decent race last time over a trip that stretches him and will like this drop back to 7f. Won from a mark of 55 at Lingfield 5 runs ago over 7f and won again from 61 3 runs ago at Kempton. Races off 68 now. Effective on polytrack though is 0 from 4 at Wolverhampton, has still ran some decent races here though. George Baker has ridden him in 3 of his last 5 races and has finished 1st, 1st and 2nd so it’s a bonus that George is back on board this evening. This is his best trip and his form is solid, should run a big race. Trainers in form and has a 25% winning strike rate over the last month (2/8).

Overview:
I’m against the front two in the market though they are too big for me to lay them. Both are reappearing just 2 days after there last race, and both ran at claiming level last time and should struggle off there current marks in handicaps. I don’t fancy the two fillies, Carefree has the weakest form in the line up and Theoretical has always ran poorly over this trip. Wicked Uncle is a 5f horse and is unlikely to stay so cant be fancied which leaves me with Millfield, Northern Boy and Tanforan. All three hold sound claims in this race and it is quite hard to split them. I have been trying to work out the best angle to approach this race and have decided to just back all 3 of my fancied horses as it will return a good profit whichever one wins (assuming one does win of course). Hopefully David Allan can make all on Tanforan and not get caught which would give us a massive 12 pnts profit from the bet and I do quite fancy this horse, Northern Boy would give us 4.8 points profit from the bet and if Millfield wins we get a respectable 2.2 points return from the bet. If something else wins we take it on the chin and lose 3 points. It may seem stupid to back 3 horses to some people but I am perfectly happy with the bet and my reasoning for going with it.

Advised Bet:
1pnt Win – MILLFIELD @ 5.2
1pnt Win – NORTHERN BOY @ 7.8
1pnt Win – TANFORAN @ 15.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251708,00.html

A dissapointing result to end the day. Got the favourite unplaced and my biggest price of the three selections Tanforan got 2nd place (I was surprised he wasnt ridden prominently) and Northern Boy got 3rd place, Millfield ran a bad race and didnt run to form, trailing home in last place. So it was a losing bet unfortunately but as I said beforehand I was happy with the bet and am still happy with it now after it lost. If I wasnt happy with my selections then I wouldnt put them up in the first place, its just the way it is that things dont always work out. Will be back tomorrow as usual and will hopefully take care of things and get back on the winning trail.