Oliver Shone?

2:10 Kelso – Handicap Chase (Class 4) (5yo+) 2m 1f Heavy


TOPWELL- All form has come on good ground or faster. Only 1 win in 17 career runs. Unproven on heavy and was beaten 55 lengths only previous run on soft. Out of form at the moment and hard to see him running well.

STORMY BEACH – Best form on good and gd-sft. Ran very badly last time beaten 67 lengths from 103. Races off lifetime high mark of 104 today and may struggle. 11-9 is a big weight to be carrying in this ground. Form figures at this track are : 15th of 15, Pulled up and 11th of 17.


CORLANDE – Won over 2m 7f at Market Rasen last time from 96 in a novice handicap on his first run for 10 months last time. He is racing from 101 today and this race may come a bit soon for him. His last 18 runs have been over trips between 2 ½ m and 3m 2f. Dropping down to this trip he should be outpaced and struggle here.


SOMETHING SILVER – Handles heavy ground. Ran over 3m 1f last time when unseating rider when the 5/2 fav. Is effective over this trip and he ran well over a similar trip 2 runs ago. Was beaten 63 lengths on his only previous course run (hurdles). Was beaten 2 ½ lengths by Hollows Mist 2 runs ago, is 2 l/b better with that rival today but not guaranteed to reverse form with him.

MISS PROS – Mare carrying top weight in a handicap. Likes heavy ground and has run well on this surface. Trip and sharp track fine. Has won 2 handicaps from 92 and 101. Races from 106 today and has always found this mark beyond her. She didn’t look in the best of form last time over hurdles.

HOLLOWS MILL – Has won on heavy ground and has run well over todays course and distance before. 98 is the highest mark he has ever won from (Mar 06) and he is running from 98 today. The trainer has had 4 runners in 2008 and none have managed to complete (3 pulled up, 1 fell) and the stable aren’t in form.

PILLAGING PACT – Did win over C&D in 2002 but has been running over trips between 2 1/2m and 3m1f in recent years. Last time he raced over C&D he was well beaten when unseating his rider and he may lack the pace for this. Won last time but always goes well fresh and this is harder from a 5 l/b higher mark and on heavy ground over this trip.

OLIVERJOHN – Did win a novice handicap chase from 102 last January over 2 miles on heavy ground and this is his time of year. Races off 98 today. He ran badly last time on his first run since April 07 in a hurdle when 9/11 from todays mark of 98. He needed his first run back last year though and then won his next two races, so he should run a lot better today back over fences. Will try and front run. Won on heavy, effective over this trip and this is his time of year. Trainer has won with 2 out of 6 runners in handicap chases at the track this season (33%). Trainers in form and has won with 2 of her last 5 runners.

Overview:
This looks a really open handicap and I am against the front two in the market. Oliverjohn looks to have a really good chance today and is a nice price so I have sided with that one and it should be hard to keep him out of the first 3, he should try and make all or race prominent and with a lot of the horses likling longer trips when the pace quickens he is in the right place and some rivals could get caught out. The bet revolves around the two lays and I have: Oliverjohn, Pillaging Pact, Hollows Mill and Miss Pross on my side, all could be given a squeak with Oliverjohn standing out and I also have the two outsiders Stormy Beech and Topwell running for me, we only need one horse to finish in front of the lays and they cant both win.

Advised bet:

3 Point LAY – CORLANDE @ 2.86
2 Point LAY – SOMETHING SILVER @ 3.5
1/2 Point WIN – OLIVERJOHN @ 14.0
1/2 Point WIN- PILLAGING PACT @ 18.0