The wonderful wizard?

3:10 Taunton – Handicap Chase (Class 4) (5yo+) 2m 7f 110 yds Soft

TREASULIER – Career record of just 1 win in 27 starts, that was a class 4 novice handicap from a mark of 89 over 3m 2f at Wincanton, the race was awful and was run in a slow time. The horse is seriously one paced. Has been beaten in last 4 handicaps from 96, 91, 91 and 91. He is racing from 91 again today and he will find it hard to win, basically any horse within touching distance of him in the home straight should beat him as he is so slow. Trainer has had just 3 chase winner from 93 runners and the last time the trainer won a race of any description was April 2007 (hurdles).

XINA FONTENAILES – Only one win from 21 starts. Best on good ground or gd-frm, has never raced on soft ground and that is most likely as he wont handle it. Ran on gd-sft 3 times and was unplaced all 3 times. She was 3rd over this C&D last time but after traveling well and looking the winner up the home straight she started treading water and appeared to not quite last home over this trip, she has a huge doubt about staying on today’s soft ground. Best over 2 ½ m – 2m 5f and on good ground.

WIZARD OF EDGE – Finished 2 ½ lengths behind Tresaulier last time at Wincanton. Horse has a good strike rate (in the context of this race) with 6 wins from 25 races over hurdles and fences. His career best form came over this course and distance. Has a great record at Taunton – 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd and 5th. Runs his best races here. Made a mistake 3 out when beaten by Treasulier last time and he is better at today’s trip than the 3m 2f last time. Has won on soft ground before. Should be at full fitness for this 3rd run of the season. Won in Janurary 05 so this is his time of year. Drops to a mark of 103 (just 4 l/b above his last winning mark), has won from a mark of 100 before and did win from 110 over hurdles so will be capable of landing a weak contest like this from today’s mark.

JALOUX DESTRUVAL – Won over hurdles from a mark of 108 so should be up to winning from this chase mark of 93 sooner or later. January is the month to catch this horse, from 7 career runs in Jan he has won 2 and been placed twice. Record on soft ground is 1 win from 12 starts, not his best ground but is effective on it. Was beaten over this C&D last time from today’s mark of 93 (looked the winner, but blew up in the straight). Ridden by a 10 l/b claimer who has won just 1 race from 34 rides over fences although 3 of his career wins did come for today’s trainer.

CARNT SPELL – Ran a career best race last time when winning a class 4 handicap chase off 75 at Huntingdon on gd-sft and put in a clear round of jumping. Did win on soft ground in November 06, though has been unplaced in 8 of 10 career races on the surface. Raised 9 l/b to a mark of 84. Was unplaced the two previous occasions he ran from this mark over fences so may well be in the handicappers grip. Not a very consistent horse and often follows up a good run with a bad run. The two occasions he ran on a sharp track he ran well and finished 2nd both times. Trainer is in form.

Overview:

Xina Fontenailes is a doubtful stayer who wont appreciate the ground so is instantly crossed out. Treasulier is one of the most one paced horses in NH and it would be a major shock for me if he was to win this, im sure the connections would have been shocked when he did actually win a race. Carnt SPell is a very inconsisten horse who should be in the handicappers grip today, this soft ground isnt ideal either even though he did win on a soft surface in the past, he usually runs badly on soft. I think Wizard Of Edge has a solid chance today at his favourite track and should comfortably reverse form with Treasulier and looks the horse to beat. Jaloux Destruval looks to have a big chance in this race after his C&D run last time and the softer ground is in his favour, the outsider of the field must not be ruled out and is capable of winning this race.

Advised Bet:
2 Points Win - WIZARD OF EDGE @ 4.0
1 Point Win - JALOUX DESTRUVAL @ 8.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251915,00.html

A bad result with my selections only managing to get 2nd and 3rd place. I said in my review of Tresaulier that any horse within touching distance in the home straight would beat him as he was so one paced. Unfortunately the jockey on Jaloux Destruval decided not to get anywhere near him in the straight and the lead that was given to Tresaulier was outrageous. No complaints from me though as we backed a horse who was ridden by a 10 l/b claimer. If that was a professional riding then I would have fair claims to complain about the ride, however it was an amateur and we paid our money and took our chances.