Mr Crapoleon

6:50 Kempton – Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+) 1m 2f Std

MR NAPOLEON – (G L Moore – G Baker)

# Won last two races from marks of 55 and 60
# The wins came in the bottom grade, class 6
# All of his AW UK runs have come in class 6 handicaps or Seller level.
# Up in grade to more competitive class 5 today
# Unplaced 7/17 only previous run in class 5 (turf) from mark of 56
# Up another 6 l/b to a mark of 66 today, should be enough to stop him against this better class of opponents
# Kempton tends to favour prominent runners, and although he did win a class 6 handicap off 55 over C&D, he will find it much tougher coming from behind off 66 in this race.

Rivals of note:

ARENAS DREAM – Won a Hamilton turf maiden 4 runs ago. Has been beaten in 3 A/W handicaps since from today’s mark of 65 (2 of them in this grade) but went close in defeat in 2 of them and the fibresand didn’t suit in the other run. He is a better horse going right handed so Kempton is likely to be his ideal polytrack course. Up to winning off this mark and effective on polytrack.

DINNER DATE – Both career wins came over this course and distance. Won off 52 over C&D 3 runs ago and then was only beaten a short head from a mark of 58 over C&D 2 runs ago. Was 7/12 last time at Lingfield and was only beaten just over 2 lengths from a mark of 60 but he has never ran well at Lingfield and the track doesn’t suit him so it was a good run. Racing from 59 today, he has won a C&D handicap from a mark of 57 before, he should run a big race at his favourite track and will go close. Both wins came in class 6 but he has run respectively in class 4 handicaps before so no problem with the step up in grade.

FATEFUL ATTRACTION – Last two career wins came at Kempton. Won over C&D two races ago from mark of 60. Was beaten 2 lengths from new mark of 66 last time at Lingfield but he is a better horse at Kempton and it suits her prominent style of racing. In form and capable of winning from this mark. Has raced twice over this course and distance and it resulted in an easy win from a mark of 60 and he was beaten a head in 2nd on his other C&D run.

STARK CONTRAST – Won on his polytrack debut at Lingfield from a mark of 62, 3 runs ago, that was a really good performance as he raced prominently and won which is tough to do at that track. Was outclassed in a class 4 handicap next time off 68 but ran a decent race next time off 65. Kempton will suit his prominent style of racing and he looks as though he is up to winning in this grade from todays mark of 64. Remains in form and looks slightly progressive. Should go very well.

BOUNDLESS PROSPECT – Usually races over 1 mile, though on his 2 career runs over this trip he did finish 2nd and 3rd and this trip suits him. Was placed in a class 4 handicap from a mark of 84 in October. Has dropped down the handicap and is being given a decent chance from todays mark of 61. Has never won on polytrack but is fully effective on this surface and handicapper is giving him a big chance this evening in this grade. Is entered in a Southwell handicap on the 10th of Jan so connections look to be trying to win this race and then turn him out in 5 days time under a penalty.

BLU MANARUNA – Ran his worst race in a while when beaten 10 lengths by tonight’s favourite at Lingfield last time. Is 7 l/b better off with that rival now and may have just had an off night on that occasion so can get closer this evening. Career record of just 1 win in 37 races doesn’t inspire confidence though has been placed in 33% of his a/w runs so don’t fully rule out and only career win did come over this trip.

DOUBLE SPECTRE – Both career wins came on the turf from marks of 63 and 64. Has only raced once on the polytrack (Lingfield) but handled the surface. Is on a winning mark this evening from 63. Dane O’Neil is booked this evening and Dane was the jockey who was on board for both of Double Spectres career wins. His best career form has been when racing R/H so Kempton should suit and he can run a big race at a decent price.

Overview:
This looks a very competitive handicap and many runners hold chances. The favourite may struggle from this mark upped in grade and looks to be underpriced. We have plenty of horses on our side to get him beat and we only need one of them to do it, for us to walk away with a profit. I have staked the bet so we win as long as the fav is beaten but it will give us a nice brucie bonus if we can get one of our win bets up as well. Its hard to call the winner and I opted for a small stake win on Stark Contrast and Double Spectre purely due to the generous looking prices on offer.

Advised Bets:
2pnt LAY – MR NAPOLEON @ 2.5
1/4pnt WIN – STARK CONTRAST @ 21.0
1/4pnt WIN – DOUBLE SPECTRE @ 32.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251808,00.html

A satisfactory way to end the day as Napoleon was unplaced in 4th after running into traffic problems as his usual hold up tactics found him meeting trouble in running from a high draw here. Stark Contrast finshed 6th after being heavily backed into an sp of 15/2 and was the stablemate of the winner Blue Manruna.
Double Spectre went the other way in the market and had over doubled in price by the start of the race and was trading at 70-75 on the exchanges. He duly missed the break and never got involved.