Stunning sand bonanza?

3:30 Southwell - Handicap (Class 5) 6f Std

TOWN AND GOWN - Trainer John Gosden has had 3 winners from 5 runners with his 3yo+ horses at Southwell in the last 5 years and that statistic alone means you have to respect this runner from a top stable. The horse remains a maiden though after 5 runs, and has looked one paced at this trip. She is unproven on fibresand and does not look progressive. Since the start of November, Gosden has had just 1 winner from 29 runners. The stable has not had a winner in January in the last 5 years. Does have the best form in the book but may prove vulnerable to a newcomer and not a horse to be taking a short price about, but at the same time not a horse to be laying purely due to the stables record at Southwell.

MOLLY ANN - A maiden after 5 races, has finished 2nd on her last 3 runs. She has raced over 7f and 8f so far, dropping down to 6f does not look ideal on pedigree (although she has been running as though this trip may suit it is debatable) and she may be outpaced in the final furlong. She does at least have proven fibresand form.

KIRKIE - He was 4th of 6 on his debut over 1 mile at this track. Dropping down to 6f should see him get outpaced and he may be of more interest when handicapping over longer trips.

MARQUIS DE LOUVOIS - Was 7th on debut at Kempton over 6f and should improve for that run. Was slowly away out the stalls, if he repeats the slow start at Southwell he is likely to find it hard to win the race. Andrew Mullen rides and he has only ridden 1 winner from 25 rides for the trainer and that was on a 2yo, so jockey booking does not inspire confidence.

MISS DOUBLE DAISY - 5yo maiden carrying 9-8, vulnerable to the younger horses in this race. Showed nothing when last seen 420 days ago, has to prove fitness, ability and not certain to handle the surface. Hard to fancy.

RED BARNET - 4yo maiden after 7 runs, drop down to 6f unlikely to suit, ran over 9f last time. Gives weight away all round and hard to make a case for.

HELPING HAND - Was 5th on debut at Southwell over 7f when ridden by an amateur. Hayley Turner takes over today and the drop to 6f should be fine. Should be straighter today and with natural improvement on this 2nd run he could run a good race and cant be ruled out.

BRUNTON BLUE - Was 8th of 11 at Lingfield on debut over 6f. Ruined chances by pulling hard that day. Has to prove she handles fibresand but would have a chance if she does handle it. J P Guilambert takes the ride and he has a 50% strike rate when riding for Jarvis (2-4). Jarvis has a 21% strike rate at the course. Trainers in form with 2 winners from his last 4 runners. Interesting.

BOSS HOGG - The only debutant in the field. This is a weak race and it would be no surprise if he were good enough to win. Has a good fibresand pedigree and yard gets the occasional 1st time out winner. An interesting runner in a weak race.

OVERVIEW:
A trappy race on a trappy day. I am prepared to risk 3 points on three horses that look generously priced. With doubts against the front three in the market I feel it is worth paying my money and taking my chance at the prices. No great confidence in the bet, but worth a punt at the prices for a decent return if successful.

Advised Bet:

1 Point Win - BOSS HOGG @ 22.0
1 Point Win - BRUNTON BLUE @ 16.0
1 Point Win - HELPING HAND @ 8.8

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,253151,00.html

A good result with a profit of 6.8 points on the bet (Brunton Blue was withdrawn not under orders) as Helping Hand made all under a good ride by Hayley Turner. Boss Hogg ran a decent race in 4th behind the odds on favourite. A nice bet for a boring days racing.