Craptic

3:30 Warwick – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (5yo+) 3m 1f Heavy

CRYPTIC – Won a novice hurdle at Wincanton and then defied a penalty to win another novice hurdle at Haydock last time. This is his handicap debut today and his mark of 125 looks quite harsh on what he has actually achieved so far. This is his first time racing against battle hardened horses and he may struggle today for a stable that doesn’t have many handicap debutant winners. Although he won on soft ground he is unproven on heavy. Both wins came on galloping tracks and this sharp track may not play to his strengths. He is stepping up in trip and has to prove he can stay this far.

KEALSHORE LAD – Won a handicap hurdle from a mark of 110 2 runs ago. Was 9th of 10 last time from new mark of 125. Again racing off 125 he may be in the handicappers grip. A lot of people will be interested in the horse because McCoy is riding, however McCoy has only ridden 1 winner from 6 rides for the trainer so it isn’t an overly significant jockey booking. Both hurdles wins came on gd-sft though is effective on heavy ground. No problem with the trip and should go well but the mark of 125 should be enough to see him beat.

ARAFAN – Won a handicap hurdle from a mark of 103 in November. Has since been beaten from 110 and was unplaced from 121 last time, He is another horse who looks in the handicappers grip from his current mark. He handles heavy ground and the trip is fine so he can go well but his record of just 1 win in 26 starts is offputting.

BALLYSHAN – Won his only previous race on heavy ground and that was over todays trip from a mark of 115. He is only 3 l/b higher today from 118 and is a danger to all. The stable is in form and they do well at this track. Trip, track and ground are fine and he is close to a winning mark so is likely to go very close in this race.

BUENA VISTA – Has been off track for 296 days but has run well and won on his seasonal reappearance and fitness is rarely an issue from this stable. He has won 5 of his 12 hurdles races and has been placed in 3 of the 12. He was running over fences last season and won 2 of his 4 races. Returning to hurdles he could take the world of beating in this race, he has won on heavy ground. He was 3rd behind Noland in the Supreme Novices hurdle at the Cheltenham festival in 2006 and on his only previous run in a handicap, he won from a mark of 128 as a 4yo racing against his elders and giving weight away all round. Since that win he has improved and should be up to defying todays mark of 140. This is his first try at 3m 1f but connections are expecting it to suit and it could also bring even further improvement. He is the classiest horse in the field and has a big chance here.

MATCHO PIERLIJ – Is racing from 6 l/b out of the handicap, is likely to be outclassed at this level and should struggle. Stable still not fully firing and hard to make a case for this horse.

KEY PHIL – Running from 1 l/b out of the handicap, he has been out of form lately and impossible to fancy him. Should be outclassed at this level.

SILVER SISTER – Possible bounce horse on this 2nd run back after a break, has to prove she can stay this trip. Was well beaten only previous run on heavy and likely this ground does not suit. Hard to make a case for her and the only mare in the field should struggle.


Overview:

4 of the 9 horses can comfortably be ruled out. I am well against the favourite ‘Cryptic’ on his handicap debut and think he will need the experience of this race against quality opponents and the handicapper has set him a tough task. Arafan and Kealshore Lad both look to be in the handicappers grip. That leaves me with Buena Vista and Ballyshan and I think the winner will come from one of these 2 horses. Both horses are effective on heavy ground and can fight out the finish here. I have Buena Vista as being the likeliest winner though consider Ballyshan to be a serious danger.

Advised Bets:

4 Point LAY – CRYPTIC @ 2.6
1 Point WIN & 1 Point PLACE – BUENA VISTA @ 14.5 & 3.85
1 Point WIN & 1 Point PLACE – BALLYSHAN @ 8.6 & 2.5

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252374,00.html

A good result with Ballyshan making all and winning nicely. Cryptic ran a decent race without ever looking like he would get the better of Ballyshan. Buena Vista was back in 4th and its possible this trip stretched him. The bet made over 11 points profit and was quite a good one.