Broken Dreams?

3:50 Leicester - Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo +) 2m Soft

HONOURS DREAM - (T R George – P J Brennan)

# Won a weak class 5 novice handicap hurdle from 88 last time at Warwick on soft.
# Up in grade to class 4 in a handicap race (not novice)
# Has a 7 l/b penalty to deal with against better class opponents today
# Won over 2m 3f on sharp l/h track last time
# Drops 3f in trip to 2m on testing r/h track today
# In 3 hurdles races on R/H testing tracks he has been beaten a total of 140 lengths
# Form figures going R/H are:- 10/13, 3/6 and 9/12
# Trainers never had a hurdles winner at Leicester and is 0/4 (although is 3/9 with his chasers here)
# Likes to front run, wont like it if anything takes him on for the lead
# Primitive Academy, Mr Shambles and Blackthorn can all front run so Honours Dream is unlikely to get his own way in front like he did last time
# He was reported to have lost his confidence in his Exeter run at having horses around him so he could easily throw in a poor race here.

Overview:

The favourite Honours Dream looks seriously underpriced in this race with many question marks against him and I have to lay him in this race. I have gone for a half point win bet on both Spinaround and Kilcoe Castle. Spinaround is very well in here on chase ratings, has ran well at Leicester on soft ground before over fences and this trip is ideal. Kilcoe Castle is a very interesting Irish raider and I am led to believe there is some confidence behind him today. I have quite a big personal risk on this bet but am confident I can get Honours Dream beat. As long as he does not win the race the bet produces a profit regardless of whether he places and if my win selections are beaten.

Advised Bet:

3 Point LAY – HONOURS DREAM @ 2.7
3 Point PLACE LAY – HONOURS DREAM @ 1.41
½ Point WIN – SPINAROUND @ 5.2
½ Point WIN - KILCOE CASTLE @9.2

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251980,00.html

Words fail me. An absolute shocker of a day. What more can I say.