Dutched dazzler?

1:20 Southwell – Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+) 6f Std

SWEET PICKLE – Mare carrying top weight in a handicap. Has won 4 times at Southwell, highest winning mark at this track was off 60 in a class 6 handicap. Was 4th last time at Wolverhampton from todays mark of 70. All 12 times in her career she has ran from this mark of 70 she has been unplaced even though she has won from as high as 68 at Wolverhampton. Holds 3 entries over the next few days so should be going for the win.

FLORES SEA – Has only had 10 races and would be open to improvement. Recent form has been poor though. Recent runs have been over longer trips, his 2 career wins did come over 6f in a 2yo maiden and a 3yo handicap. Has never raced on fibresand and has to prove himself on this surface. Was 6th of 7 only run on only run on soft ground (soft ground horses often like fibresand). Can miss the break which is not a good thing to do here and has been held up lately. Trainer does well here and he does hold an entry for another Southwell handicap in 3 days time. Trainers in form and had a winner here on the 1st January. Not easy to fancy but I feel he may have been lined up for this race today and can go very well.

FIGARO FLYER – Has won 5 times on the a/w but they were all on polytrack (4 at Wolverhampton and 1 at Lingfield). Interesting though that his 2 career best runs in terms of form came here on the fibresand when he was 2nd and 3rd. Won in January in 2007. Won a class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton last time from 63 by a head. Raised 4 l/b to 67 today but did win last January from 74. 4 of 5 a/w career wins came in double figure fields (the other was a 9 runner field). Held up for his last 2 wins (has front run in the past as well though). He did win a couple of small field races on turf in his younger days so I wont hold the small field against him.

DASHEENA – Mare, won over 6f on turf as a 2yo at Carlisles stiff track, though all wins since have been over 7f and she is better over that trip. Ran at Southwell over 7f on her last 2 races, she won a class 6 handicap off 60 and then was 2nd last time in a class 6 handicap off 64. She races off a lifetime high mark of 64 today and is up in grade to class 5 and down in trip. Could be outpaced here. Has 2 entries over the next 3 days. Her last 3 wins came in class 6 company (did win a class 5 as a 2yo) and this grade may be above her. All 4 career wins were in double figure fields. Has a tendency to miss the break.

GRAND PALACE – Won over 7f here as a 3yo. Has been in great form lately form figures read – 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd . Was beaten over C&D (2nd) from 55 in a class 6 handicap 3 runs ago. Has since won from 55 at Lingfield in a class 6 and was only beaten a head off 59 last time at Wolves. Races off 62 and that combined with the raise in grade (all wins in class6 and rarely runs outside that grade) should be enough to see him beaten. All 4 career wins came in double figure fields so this small field may be against him.

Overview:

This is a really tricky 5 runner race. The fact that Sweet Pickle has been beaten in all 12 handicaps from today's mark means I cant fancy the mare today. All of Dasheenas wins came in double figure fields, she should be outpaced here and she is a class 6 horse so I cant fancy her today in this. Grand Palace is another who the small field may be against as all wins were in double figure fields. He is a class 6 horse so its hard to fancy him today in this grade and he is rising in the handicap for not winning which puts me off him.
As Sherlock Holmes said "When you have eliminated all of the impossible then whatever remains must be the truth however imponderable".
I am left with Flores Sea and Figaro Flyer and feel we must have a good chance of getting the winner here.

Advised Bet:
1 Point Win - FIGARO FLYER @ 4.5
1 Point Win - FLORES SEA @ 12.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251898,00.html

A bad result for me with Figaro Flyer and Flores Sea finishing 5th and 4th. An absolute avalanche of money was piled on Flores Sea after I posted and the 12.0 was turned into a betfair SP of 5.2, he never really looked like winning though and neither did Figaro Flyer. It was a career best performance by the winner to win off 70 so hats off to her.