Losethorpe

12:50 Southwell – Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+) 6f Std

WINTHORPE – Won a Southwell handicap from a mark of 54, 3 runs ago. Has since been beaten in 2 runs from his new mark of 61 (did win off higher marks, but that was in his younger days as a 3yo). This is his 5th race in just over a month and the busy schedule will catch up with him sooner or later.

STRATHMORE – Ran a career best race last time on his fibresand debut and is still open to improvement at the age of 4. Was beaten a head by today’s favourite ‘Winthorpe’ however he was very slowly away from the break and made a lot of ground up. He is weighted the same with the fav today but with a better break and the promise of improvement to come he can reverse form with that rival. He will be held up again but had no problems with the kickback and it’s interesting that Fahey wants to reoppose Winthorpe and confidence must be high he can turn him over.

BENTLEY – Was beaten 5 ¾ lengths by Winthorpe over C&D in December, however Bentley is 11 l/b better off with that rival today. That was Bentleys first run for 3 ½ months and he would have needed the run to sharpen him up. Bentley was also a 3yo taking on his elders for the first time in his career. He was only beaten a short head last time at Wolverhampton in his 2nd race against his elders and is running back into form. He can reverse form with Winthorpe today and did win off a 10 l/b higher mark last February. He is a course winner and holds 3 entries over the next 4 days.

GUILDERNSTERN – Has been running poorly over the last 6 months and his handicap mark has been dropping accordingly. However he showed signs that he is ready to strike again when only beaten ¾ length by Perlachy at Wolverhampton over 6f. He is easily up to winning a race off this mark of 55, and now that he is coming back into form he could well win and run up a sequence. This is his fibresand debut and he has to prove he can handle the surface though he has won on soft and ran well on gd-sft so there is a decent chance he will handle it.

QUIET TIMES – Been out of form recently and ran a shocker last time. However the last time he ran a race that bad he followed it up with a great run, so he can have off days and I wouldn’t write him off purely down to that run. He is a 6 times course winner and has finished in the top 3 in 9 of 26 races here. 6 of his wins came over this trip and he has twice won in the month of January. He was in form this time last year and no surprise if he springs back to life today. Has been running mainly in claimers recently but on last winters form he could easily win from this mark. I don’t overly fancy him but he is a decent animal to have on our side for our lay.

LUCIUS VERSIUS – A C&D winner who likes it round here. Has been badly out of form lately and handicap mark has been dropping. His last two wins were off 54 and 56 so he could be ready to strike again from today’s mark of 55. Big worry is his recent form though which makes him hard to fancy, although a useful 7 l/b claimer will aide his cause and it isn’t out of the question that he could win this race today. Has an entry in a handicap on the 10th Jan.

ZARZU – Drops to a career low mark of 64 today. Ran badly in November but that was his first run since April and he needed the run. He will be a lot sharper today. Is a fibresand winner and he has won or placed in 7/14 (50%) course runs. He is 11 l/b below his last winning mark and would be well up to exposing this mark. The booking of Tom Queally is interesting for this horse and it would be no surprise if Zarzu were to win today.

Overview:

This looks a really open race and with the favourite having been beaten in his last 2 runs from today's mark I am looking to get him beat. I think both Bentley and Strathmore can reverse recent form with the favourite and I fell that Bentley in particular has a great chance of winning today. I cant rule out any of the runners in this race. The bet is staked so we win as long as the favourite is beaten and we will get a very nice brucie bonus if either Bentley or the massively overpriced Zarzu can this very open looking race. Favourite looks underpriced so I have to take him on.

Advised Bet:

2 Point LAY - WINTHORPE @ 3.2
3/4 Point WIN - BENTLEY @ 6.2
1/4 Point WIN - ZARZU @ 27.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251897,00.html

A good start to the day. Winthorpe only managed to beat one rival home securing a profitable bet for us. Bentley ran a great race and was flying at the finish and just got beaten by a head in the end, a few more yards and he would have won and landed us a nice touch. Zarzu finished in 5th place and did beat the favourite though never looked like he would win, at the price I thought it was worth having a small back of him though.