Dutched win and place bet

2:45 Ayr – Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5yo+) Heavy

POSH STICKS – Fell in a hurdles race on first run for 8 months last time. He is a spring/summer horse, 4 career wins – 2 in March, 1 in April and 1 in August. Carlisle specialist with 3 of 4 wins coming at that track. Last handicap win was from a mark of 89, on old form he would be up to winning a race off today’s mark of 96. Horse has ran 3 times in January over the years, he is yet to complete a race in this month. Has been beaten all 5 times he has raced in a class 3 race. Not up to this grade. Likely to be unplaced. Flexible tactically.

KING OF THE ARCTIC – Has never been placed in 3 runs on heavy ground. Course record is – unplaced in 4 of 5 runs. Ran like a rogue last time, over course and distance on heavy ground on first run for 4 months. He has gone well fresh before so fitness was unlikely to be the issue and he looks badly out of sorts at present. Won a 4 runner race from a mark of 118 in July but looks held by handicapper at present from current mark of 123. Likely to be unplaced. Races prominent.

SILVER JACK – Has won 3 times over fences, 2 of those wins came on heavy ground. Likes Ayr and has won twice at this track. He looks a bit high in the handicap at present, 9l/b above his last winning mark. His jumping has gone to pieces in his last two races with a fall and a series of blunders. His best form has come over 2m 7f + and this trip may be on the sharp side these days. Ran badly and made mistakes when PU last time. Prominent racer can lead.

LAMPION DU BOST – Career best form came over todays course and distance on heavy ground, won over C&D on heavy 2 runs ago in this grade. Won 3 runs ago also at Aintree from a mark of 104. He was 7th last time over 3m at Haydock from his new mark of 118. He is likely to run a decent race today but the handicapper may have his measure now. Was beaten 1 ½ lengths by Master Sebastian last January. Master Sebastian is now 19 l/b better off with that rival and should comfortably beat him. Races prominent.

AKILAK – J Howard Johnson won this race in 2000. Won over today’s trip at Carlisle last time on seasonal reappearance in a Carlisle novice event on heavy ground. Trip and ground ideal. Always runs his best races when fresh so may not be as good today. Makes handicap debut from a mark of 124 which looks a touch harsh on what he has achieved in 6 novice/beginners chases. Was unplaced 4th of 7 when 6/5 fav on his only previous course run last December. Held up for win last time though is flexible with tactics.



MASTER SEBASTIAN – Likes heavy ground and has won over today’s course and distance on heavy. Has won this race for the last 2 years running, from a mark of 105 and from today’s mark of 110. Racing off 110 today with conditions ideal he is likely to run a big race. He would have needed his first run of the season and then possibly bounced next time out. He will have been targeted for this race and should be 100% fit, primed and ready to run a big race with conditions ideal. Races prominent.


VILLON – This is first race for 747 days. Was a progressive horse when last seen. Has won 5 of 6 career runs. 3 of those wins came on heavy ground and he has won over course and distance. He is bred to be a chaser and ran a career best race on his chase debut when last seen over 2 years ago. Makes his handicap debut today from a mark of 130 and if he retains his ability and is close to full fitness then he could easily win this race under conditions that suit as he was a potential Cheltenham festival horse when last seen. He beat Roman Ark by 6 lengths on his chase debut giving him 3 l/b, Roman Ark is currently rated a 145 chaser and most horses will improve for there chase debut so Villon could be absolutely thrown in here. The horse was having his first run after a break for 3 of the 5 wins and the trainer is a master at readying a horse after a long absence so fitness is not likely to be an issue. Len Lungo appears to like his chasers winning in January. Jan 07 – 3/9, Jan 06 – 3/10, Jan 05 – 4/9. His record is 10 winners from his last 28 runners over fences in the month of January. Trainer is 10/27 (37%) with his Ayr chasers in the last 5 years. This is his only chase runner on the card. Hold up horse.


FIRST LOOK – Has ran 3 times in handicap chases. 12th of 14 – OR 120, 2nd of 8 – OR 118 and 3rd of 5 – OR 118. Races off 120 today. Was 3rd of 5 last time over todays course and distance on heavy ground from 118, he was only beaten 6 ½ lengths and is open to improvement still after just 6 chase runs. Course record is 1123 (fences and hurdles). He can pull hard and is likely to try and make all. A lot will depend on how he settles today, if he does settle and gets an uncontested lead he would be dangerous. Trainer has had 2 winners from last 4 runners. Likely to be there fighting at the finish.

Overview: I can confidently rule out Posh Sticks, King Of The Arctic, Silver Jack and Lampion Du Bost. Akilaks poor course form is off putting as well as the fact that he is a better horse when fresh so I’m against him today.
The race boils down to 3 horses in my opinion, the fact that First Look has been beaten in his last 3 handicaps from 118-120 just puts me off that horse today although he cant be ruled out. Master Sebastian is of massive interest, has the form in the book, is on a winning mark and has won this race for the last 2 years, he gets his ideal conditions today and looks a solid E/W bet with a great chance of winning. Villon is an extremely interesting rival though and everything looks good for him today, he could be miles ahead of his current handicap mark and could potentially win easily (his only career defeat came in the grade 1 Supreme Novice hurdle at Cheltenham festival). Of course there is always the chance that he is not as good a horse as he was when last seen 2 yeas ago. I have gone for 1 pnt win and place on Villon. And 1 pnt win, 2pnts place on Master Sebastian.

Advised Bet:
1pnt WIN, 1pnt PLACE – VILLON @ 4.9 & 1.9
1pnt WIN, 2 pnts PLACE – MASTER SEBASTIAN @ 6.4 & 2.1

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251498,00.html

After the embarrasment of having a losing day yesterday it was essential I took care of things today. I couldnt have been more pleased with the result with Master Sebastian and Villon pulling right away from the field to give me a very enjoyable finish to the race.