Smoothly doesn't do it?

3:10 Southwell – Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+) 1m 4f Std

SMOOTHLY DOES IT
# This is 1st race for 368 days and he may need the run
# Won over hurdles at Wetherby when last seen.
# Good chance this run is just being used as a warm up run for hurdling campaign.
# Flat record of 1 win in 30 runs doesn’t inspire confidence
# Beaten all 4 runs on the a/w
# Top weight, gives weight away all round on first run for over a year
# Has always needed his 1st run back after a break in the past
# Ran his worst ever race on his only previous fibresand run over 6f here
# You cant put that run down to the trip as he ran much better the race before and the race after over the same distance. Appeared to hate the surface.
# Jamie Moriaty has an 8% strike rate for Fahey and isn’t the first choice jockey when it comes to landing a Fahey coup
# Unproven over this trip in flat racing
# 10f is the furthest he has raced over on the flat
# This is a tight handicap and he doesn’t stand out at all in this race for me

TIDY – Beaten 20 lengths at this track last time from a 4 l/b higher mark. Finished 12th of 12 on this course back in March 06. Did win a 6f race by default over 6f here way back in 2002 (winner was disqualified). This is the longest trip he has raced over on the flat. Looks badly out of form at present.

NIMELLO – Is a C&D winner. Has won 25% of his A/W races (9 from 36) and has been placed in 5 of the 36 runs. Drops down to a winning mark of 53, won off this mark over C&D in March, has won from much higher marks on a/w in the past. This is his first race for 259 days but he was won when fresh in the past.

PARCHMENT – Won off 51 and 55 on the turf. Has won over this trip. Has never ran on the a/w and has to prove he can handle fibresand. Best form was on fast ground so may not like the surface but claims if he does handle it. Has been running badly and regressing recently and is hard to fancy. Chance the 68 day break may have rekindled his enthusiasm. Hard to fancy but not out of the question

BRIGHT SPARKY – Flat maiden after 6 races, never ran on a/w track. Not raced on the flat since Aug 06 and has been running ok in hurdles races (winning 2 from 11). May be a better horse than he was when he was last seen on the flat and although hard to make a case for, not out of the question that he could run well here of 50 if taking to the surface.

KARMEST – 1 win in 13 starts came over 6f. Has run good races over 11f at Kempton though and should stay. Ran a shocker last time at Lingfield but has ran bad races inbetween good ones before, so would be capable of running much better today. One of his best races came on the only time he raced on the fibresand and his win did come on a soft surface, so he should enjoy the track. As long as he lasts out over this trip then he is on a winnable mark from 50 and cant be ruled out.

ANYTHING ONCE – Maiden after 17 races and has never even been placed in 17 runs. Been badly out of form recently and hard to fancy. Was beaten 11 lengths over 11f here, 2 runs ago from a mark of 50, hard to see him winning today from 47.

ISLAND KING – Been beaten a total of 90 lengths in 5 flat runs. Makes handicap debut today from mark of 45 and hard to see him getting involved as he appears to lack ability. If this wins then it’s a great coup by the stable, on form he has no chance.

BLUE OPAL – Low level horse who’s last 4 flat runs came at banded level. In his favour he loves fibresand and both wins came here over 12f & 11f (banded race and maiden). Form of 12/13 months ago in handicaps would give him a chance in this race from a mark of 45.

INTEREST – Stable does well here and there last runner at the track won. Has shown very little in 4 runs so far, at least has scope for improvement compared to his rivals. Looked regressive when last seen in Feb 07. First run for 334 days. Entered in a seller and a maiden in the coming week hardly inspires confidence in his chances.

PIANO KEY – Maiden after 13 races. Was beaten 14 lengths in a maiden over 11f at this track 2 runs ago.

Overview:

The favourite 'Smoothly Does It' looks vastly underpriced at around 2.7 in this race and I have to lay it at the price. The two likliest winners look to be Nimello and Karmest as far as I am concerned (my preference is Nimello). I have staked the bet so we win as long as the favourite is beaten and it's a brucie bonus if we can land the winner which we have a good chance of doing.

Advised bets:
2pnt LAY - SMOOTHLY DOES IT @ 2.7
1/2pnt WIN - NIMELLO @ 9.2
1/2pnt WIN - KARMEST @ 9.2

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251799,00.html

It is fair to assume that one is pleased with the outcome of this race. The lay of 'Smoothly Does It' was unplaced and never at any point of the race did he look like he would win. My two win bets finished 1st and 2nd which resulted in a profit of 5.6 points on the bet and ensured Sunday was a profitable and enjoyable day. As per usual, I love it when a plan comes together.