Piggy Wiggy?

12:10 Southwell – Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+) 1m 4f Std

THREE BOARS – Bean beaten in 3 of his last 4 runs from marks of 66 (2 of them at Southwell. Last win came 3 runs ago from mark of 60 over 1m 6f and this mark of 68 may be above him now. Did win from a mark of 65 last season though that was over his best trip of 1m 6f. Won over C&D last March from 61 but looks a better horse over further now.

JACKIE KIELY – Was beaten 9 lengths by Three Boars on his last run, that was over 1m 6f and the trip is on the edge of his stamina limits. He is 10 l/b better off with that rival today and racing over his optimum trip. He has an outstanding record at Southwell. In 20 runs here he has won 7 and been placed 7 times. He won here from a mark of 70 last March and is racing from that winning mark again today. Should be able to reverse the form with Three Boars over this trip and on much better terms where.

GLOBAL TRAFFIC – Showed he is effective on fibresand when 3 ¾ lengths 3rd to St Savarin over 11f here on his last flat run in Dec, that was only a claimer but the winner was rated 94 and the 2nd was rated 84 so it was a good run. Last win came from a mark off 60 on heavy ground at Chepstow in July over 12f. Did win a 3yo handicap from a mark of 62 also so is on a winning mark today racing from 62. He sprang into life at this time last year, he racked up a treble on the 4th January, 15th January and the 27th January. This is clearly his time of year and he may well spring back into life today and could win this race. Only 4yo so still open to plenty of improvement.

SUMMER OF SIXTYNINE – Has only had 9 races and is open to improvement. Won over this trip last time in a Wolverhampton maiden. Makes his handicap debut from a realistic mark of 58 today. Is unproven on the surface but in a race full of hold up horses he may get an easy lead and could steal the race from the front if he does handle fibresand.

PUNTA GALERA – Won a turf handicap from 84 in Sep 06. Has been dropping down the handicap mark and is now racing from a lifetime low mark of 63 today. This is first run on fibresand and a lot depends on how he takes to it. Has run well on soft ground in the past so not inconceivable that he will like it. This is his best trip. Ran a really poor race last time though for no apparent reason, if you can forgive him that run and he handles the surface then he cant be ruled out. Does hold an entry in 3 days time.

Overview:

I expect Jackie Kiely to reverse form with Three Boars today over this trip. The fact that Three Boars has been beaten in 3 of last 4 runs from today's higher mark of 68 leads me to think he will be beaten once again from this mark over a trip that is short of his best. I have staked the bet so as long as the lay is beaten we win. Although I do fancy Jackie Kiely and Global Traffic today, I opted for a very small win bet on Punta Galera and Summerofsixtynine purely due to price.

Advised Bet:

2 Point LAY - THREE BOARS @ 3.1
1/4 Point WIN -PUNTA GALERA @ 9.0
1/4 Point WIN - SUMMEROFSIXTYNINE @ 16.0

RESULT: - http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,252327,00.html

A bad start to the day as Three Boars wins.