A pair of cretins

2:20 Fontwell – Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5yo+) 2m 4f

ROMANY DREAM –All 6 career wins came between the months of March and November. Best form normally comes in Spring. Is running from 3 l/b out of the handicap today. Jockey Charlie Poste has never ridden a winner for the trainer in 16 rides. Horse has never won in this grade, wins came in class 4 or below.

LEASE BACK – Best form has come over 2m6 and 3 miles. Today’s trip is on the short side for him. Career wins came in the months – May – x2, June, September. Has always ran poorly in the winter. Was PU only attempt over fences in the UK though did win 2 chases in France back in 2003. Won over hurdles at Uttoxeter when last seen in May over 3 mile on good ground. Trainer is 5/30 with his chasers at Fontwell. Jockey is 0/2 when riding for trainer. This is his first race for 229 days and he may need it.

RANDWICK ROAR – Has ran respectably in class 3 handicap chases from higher marks. OR is dropping down and he could be dangerous off this sort of mark. Probably needed 1st run of the season when he was bought down by a rival when beaten, and then would have found 3 miles too far on his 2nd run. Fitness wise he should be spot on today and he has dropped to a mark of 115. Effective on the ground and trip is ideal. Trainers in form and does well here. Trainer and jockey combination are 29% on all runners at the track this season.

MY WORLD – Has won 4 times in her career, although all wins came in novice events, she has never won a handicap. All her wins came on Heavy, soft or gd-sft and today’s ground should be too lively for her. All wins came over trips between 16 & 18 f. She does stay todays trip but is better over shorter.

IM SUPREME – Has only had 6 races and will be open to plenty of improvement. This is his chase debut today and he has to prove he can jump fences (comes from a top yard and jumping shouldn’t be an issue). Was a maiden over hurdles but was effective at this trip. Handicap mark of 100 looks quite harsh for his first run over fences. Was beaten a combined distance of 77 lengths in his two handicap hurdles runs (both from marks of 104). Interesting that he is going straight into handicaps over fences and does have an entry on the 7th of January which could mean connections think he can win today and will be running him in 4 days time under a penalty. Trainer is 6/18 with his Fontwell chasers over the last 5 years.

LIDJO DE ROUGE – Horse is in form and won last time at Wincanton over 2m 5f on soft, he is racing under a 7 l/b penalty today and is up in grade from class 4 to class 3. Was well beaten 11/14 on only previous run at Fontwell (hurdles), though that was his first run in the UK and he has progressed since then. In 5 UK runs his best 2 runs came at right handed Wincanton and its possible he is better going that way. Win came on soft and also ran well on heavy may need a more testing surface to be seen at his best although he did win on good ground in France. Only 2 wins in 38 career runs.

MIGHTY MATTERS – Won 3 x class 4 handicap chases in a row for this yard from marks of 93, 105 and 114. Run was halted last time from new mark of 125 when upped in grade to class 3, that was over 3m 1f but he had won over 3m before so trip shouldn’t have been an issue. Again racing off 125 in class 3, he appears to be in the handicappers pocket now. All 4 career wins came at right handed tracks and he is better racing that way. He was unplaced in all 3 races over obstacles going left handed. This trip could be on the sharp side at today’s track.

SOUWESTER – Won easily on first run for 18 months last time at Plumpton over 2 m 4f on soft ground. This 2nd run back after a long lay off may come too soon and he is a potential bounce horse today. Has been raised 23 l/b by the handicapper for the win last time. He was rated higher over hurdles so could be on a potentially fair mark based on his form in novice hurdles last season, though his only handicap win over hurdles was in a lowly selling handicap hurdle from a mark of 76. His win last time came in a class 5 handicap and this is a big rise in grade today to class 3.

Overview:
I am looking to get the front two in the market beaten in this race. Mighty Matters is priced up on his right handed form and is not as good racing this way and may be held by the handicapper now anyway so I have to lay him. Souwester has a big rise in the handicap to overcome and there is a big chance he will bounce and run below form today. I have decided to lay them both to level stakes as I feel they are both beatable today and have gone for a win bet on Randwick Roar and Im Supreme. As long as Souwester and Mighty Matters get beat then we are guaranteed a profit and the worse case scenario is a 2.35 point loss.

Advised Bet:
1 Point LAY – SOUWESTER @ 3.35
1 Point LAY – MIGHTY MATTERS @ 3.35
½ Point Win – RANDWICK ROAR @ 14.0
½ Point Win – IM SUPREME @ 11.0

RESULT: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,251582,00.html

Another winning day and Im always going to be pleased with that. The two lays were both comfortably beaten with Mighty Matters pulled up and Souwester in 3rd. Both Randwick Roar and Im Supreme were backed in quite strongly pre race but both ran poor races in 5th and 6th place but a winning bet was landed all the same.